Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

Could be complete bollocks but have seen quite a few mentions of this today. The Germans probably didn't take the news about Nord Stream 1 being out of commission too well so might now become more active in this sort of way. If true, the Kerch Bridge would finally be in range:

 

[Wee Bully]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Could be complete bollocks but have seen quite a few mentions of this today. The Germans probably didn't take the news about Nord Stream 1 being out of commission too well so might now become more active in this sort of way. If true, the Kerch Bridge would finally be in range:

 

I suspect the usual apologists on here will tell us that the indefinite closing of Nord Stream 1 has been “planned for weeks”. 

Russia is really hurting now - hopefully we are moving towards the end game. 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/02/chinas-visa-alternative-cuts-off-russian-banks-over-sanctions-rbc-a78704

Quote

 

China’s UnionPay payment system has stopped accepting cards issued by Russian banks under Western sanctions over fears of penalties, the RBC news website reported Friday, citing financial industry sources.

Demand for UnionPay cards in Russia surged following Visa and Mastercard’s exit in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. 

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

...so much for BRICS. Think that's a sign that China sees which way the wind is blowing now because Unionpay is linked to their central bank rather than a private company and was being actively promoted six months ago as the alternative Russians could use after visa and mastercard pulled out.

[TxRover]

3 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Could be complete bollocks but have seen quite a few mentions of this today. The Germans probably didn't take the news about Nord Stream 1 being out of commission too well so might now become more active in this sort of way. If true, the Kerch Bridge would finally be in range:

 

Interesting…seems they would evade most missile defenses…

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/jfs_m_cruise_missile_for_himars_an_interesting_idea_from_mbda_that_demonstrates_the_trend_of_weapons_development-3885.html

[LongTimeLurker]

Might explain some of the strikes in Crimea and southern mainland Ukraine that were beyond what had been assumed to be HIMARS range if a few of those were supplied along with the M270 MLRS vehicles that Germany gave the Ukrainians.

There appears to be plenty of skepticism though that Germany would ever do something more radical than the Americans and that development is far enough along for there to be something to send in the first place.

Ukraine appears to have captured a small town they have been after for months at the northern end of Kherson oblast:

Have seen it claimed that it was difficult to take because it was on relatively high ground compared to the surrounding countryside. Was viewed as the logistical launching pad for any future Russian attack on the large steel producing city of Kryvyi Rih further to the north, which is Zelensky's hometown.

[LongTimeLurker]

Ukrainians also advance in Donetsk oblast and gain a bridgehead over the Northern Donetsk river:

and an issue with ball bearings for rail freight carraiges that was predicted months ago is really starting to bite apparently:

Big problem for Vlad when about 50% of all freight in Russia moves by rail.

[doulikefish]

20 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Ukrainians also advance in Donetsk oblast and gain a bridgehead over the Northern Donetsk river:

and an issue with ball bearings for rail freight carraiges that was predicted months ago is really starting to bite apparently:

Big problem for Vlad when about 50% of all freight in Russia moves by rail.

It's all lies...VT has told us so because he has some attended some lectures and uses terms like "champ" 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

Which one's HB?

[ICTChris]

Here is Soloviev presenting the New Years Eve show on Russian state TV in 2013. The other presenter has, I think, left Russia due to opposing the war but check out who is dancing on stage.

 

[Detournement]

NewBornBairn going into bat for Auschwitz and Treblinka. 

I am shocked. 

[MazzyStar]

21 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Here is Soloviev presenting the New Years Eve show on Russian state TV in 2013. The other presenter has, I think, left Russia due to opposing the war but check out who is dancing on stage.

 

Tom Cruise and Jeremy Renner? 

[dirty dingus]

Just hearing twas dick pic's that won the war. Ukrainian intelligence have been setting up accounts using smoking hot model profiles to get the Russian troops to engage with and send pictures so they can geolocate their positions. Getting a good bang on the first date. 

Edited September 5, 2022 by dirty dingus

[Billy Jean King]

Tom Cruise and Jeremy Renner? 

Sure I saw Kevin Bridges.

[Michael W]

Shockingly, the "oil leak" was bollocks. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62789675

Nordstream 1 off until sanctions are lifted. 

[Detournement]

This guy was President of Estonia. 

[Wee Bully]

46 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Shockingly, the "oil leak" was bollocks. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62789675

Nordstream 1 off until sanctions are lifted. 

Paint me shocked.  

As i said before, Russia is really suffering now and hopefully the endgame is a little bit closer than it was.  

[Michael W]

18 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

Paint me shocked.  

As i said before, Russia is really suffering now and hopefully the endgame is a little bit closer than it was.  

Yeah, that's the trump card played. Not sure when I expected it to come out, but there it is. Probably will have little to zero impact on Russia, who will just sell it to someone else instead. They will still get their money. For Europe, this is potentially disastrous and urgent action is needed. 

All about how Europe responds now. The same challenges we had are still there, namely price and the possibility of rationing in winter. But it's a pretty clear signal that Russian gas is pretty much gone now and there is really no choice but to wean the continent off of it. Either that or the sanctions come off, which there is no political will to do at the moment. 

Upscaling domestic production of electricity is now essential. This cannot be done immediately, but needs to be started immediately and nuclear is a big part of thatwhikst renewables are intriduced more. North Sea gas probably likewise too in the short term - It'll piss a lot of people off, but that's too bad. In the meantime, it will unfortunately be an expensive exercise in mitigating the high cost. Inflation needs to be controlled and the best way to counter the effect on consumers (and indeed businesses) is to stop them paying the inflated prices; that will required lots of capital to get into the position we need to be in.  

Quite a lot to get right, but the prize is energy security and the end of reliance of Russian gas. More importantly, the prospect of a continent's energy security being compromised by sanctions/disputes will go. It is a huge undertaking, though, and I am worried about it all coming together - so many things that can go wrong and jeopardise the whole thing. Not least the horrendous cost of doing it which will test resolve. 

It's probably just a coincidence, but slightly curious this closure comes the day the UK has another PM and a day after Germany announces a €65bn support package. 

 

[welshbairn]

There are a few other pipelines taking gas into Europe, oil ones too. Not sure which are still operating and at what capacity. Orban seemed pretty confident that Uncle Vlad would keep Hungary supplied, with refined petroleum as well as gas.

These are the gas ones.

 

[Detournement]

UK and EU politicians have murdered huge numbers of their citizens for a US proxy war that doesn't have any upside for them. 

Anyone who thinks we are going to gracefully switch to nuclear and renewables is deluded. This is shock therapy, no one will vote for cutting their own consumption so it's been inflicted from above and the carnage it causes won't bother those at the top in the slightest.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Detournement