TxRover Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: You're obviously much better versed than I on this subject, but I read the Iranian drones have to be launched from runways, which severely limits their sphere of influence. Your point about doubling range still stands of course. Depends…the Shahed-129 is roughly a copy of the U.S. Predator drone, and needs a runway, as does the Mohamed-6. The Shahed-191 is a derivative of the Sentinel drone and doesn’t require a runway. There are several other drones (Yasir, Ababeel-S, Hadaf-3000) the Iranians might be providing that are smaller, and capable of launch from rails on mobile platforms or similar devices. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Maybe not, from the link above. Karrar, a training drone for air defence crews…with a bonus capacity to carry an up to 500kg weapon and drop it accurately, IF in control range. Or, it could be used kamikaze style. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 2 hours ago, TxRover said: However, 1,000 third rate drones have advantages that 10 or 100 first rate one don’t. Do the Russians have 1000 drone operators or the communications infrastructure to cope though? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Saw a document that purports to show Russia has made over 48000 payments to families for Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. They don't make payments for seperatists from Donbas, Syrian volunteers or Wagner mercenaries so the total killed will be a lot higher and that was before the current Ukrainian offensive. That's more than the US lost in the entire Vietnam war. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: Do the Russians have 1000 drone operators or the communications infrastructure to cope though? That’s a pretty good question, with an ambiguous answer. A lot depends how they intend to control the drones and how the Iranians are equipping the one they have sold. Given the embargo, I would expect the Russians to be using Iranian equipment for control and such, and while the quality is suspect, they have killed plenty of people in Yeman, and more than a few in Saudi Arabia. But, they also would likely use the drones sequentially, rather than in a singLe mass assault…although that concept has merit, but would likely be done with unguided drones, flying a completely preprogrammed course, to a large and vulnerable target (like an oil refinery, chemical plant, etc.). Edited September 7, 2022 by TxRover 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: Saw a document that purports to show Russia has made over 48000 payments to families for Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. They don't make payments for seperatists from Donbas, Syrian volunteers or Wagner mercenaries so the total killed will be a lot higher and that was before the current Ukrainian offensive. That's more than the US lost in the entire Vietnam war. 48,000 payments would suggest the entire attacking force Russian originally used had, if suffered proportionally, lost nearly 25% of their personnel. Given combat ineffectiveness is generally considered to be 20-30% casualties, that would explain the general inability of the Russians to withstand the current Ukrainian counter attack. That’s also in excess of 5% of Russian active personnel, an unsustainable figure, which explains the use of mercenaries, prisoner battalions, volunteers, and such. If the Ukrainians can capture a significant number of Russian troops in this latest offensive (say 5,000+ From a coupe, of units), the entire complexion of the war will change, and the calculus on Putin’s behavior has to be seriously reviewed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, TxRover said: Depends…the Shahed-129 is roughly a copy of the U.S. Predator drone, and needs a runway, as does the Mohamed-6. The Shahed-191 is a derivative of the Sentinel drone and doesn’t require a runway. There are several other drones (Yasir, Ababeel-S, Hadaf-3000) the Iranians might be providing that are smaller, and capable of launch from rails on mobile platforms or similar devices. I remember Iran showing off an American drone that had crashed or been shot down on their territory, ages ago. Most of the Western technology used in Ukraine is probably already in Russian defence research establishments getting reverse engineered, whether they have the wherewithal to reproduce it is another matter. They probably had the drawings already though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 I’m not sure how accurate that document giving those figures is. I think it gives a total expenditure figure which people have divided by previously given figures for payouts to the family of killed soldiers which gives you 48,000. There is room for error and overestimation in there. British and US intelligence have an estimate that around 25,000 Russian troops have been killed. What seems to be clear is that in the last two days Russia has lost a lot of men, equipment and territory in Kharkiv. I saw one estimation based on visually confirmed losses that they’ve lost a brigades worth of equipment. Who knows how many Russian soldiers have been killed. It also has the appearance of a rout - previous retreats by both sides have been organised but this time equipment has been abandoned, including large artillery pieces and tanks, there are larger numbers of POWs. It’s been very bad days for Russia. What is apparently happening now is that the Russian Air Force is being heavily deployed to try and slow the advance. Flip side to that is a Ukraine has concentrated it’s air defences on the area and there have already been shoot downs of Russian planes and helicopters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 9 hours ago, Newbornbairn said: Do the Russians have 1000 drone operators How hard can it be? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 We'll see how accurate this turns out to be (twitter and telegram sources have been known to spin false narratives) but if true, the problem the Russians will have is that there is a very long reservior running south from near this town on the Oskil river that blocks a huge chunk of occupied territory from easy resupply/escape with the only possible crossing points all either already destroyed earlier in the war when the Ukrainians retreated or now in easy HIMARS range. The twitter account being quoted isn't actually the infamous Igor Girkin but a Ukrainian parody account that tends to highlight important info from Ukrainian and Russian language sources on what's happening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 How hard can it be?What's the difference between an al qaeda training camp and a Yemeni wedding?I dunno, I just fly the drones. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbaxters Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said: APU? Is that not him who has the shop on The Simpsons? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: What's the difference between an al qaeda training camp and a Yemeni wedding? I dunno, I just fly the drones. You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 48 minutes ago, jimbaxters said: APU? Is that not him who has the shop on The Simpsons? The translator software used to generate that appears to have done something strange. The cyrillic letters in the original are the initials in Russian for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beefybake Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 16 hours ago, Newbornbairn said: Saw a document that purports to show Russia has made over 48000 payments to families for Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. They don't make payments for seperatists from Donbas, Syrian volunteers or Wagner mercenaries so the total killed will be a lot higher and that was before the current Ukrainian offensive. That's more than the US lost in the entire Vietnam war. There are just over 58,000 names on the US Vietnam Mermorial Wall. The numbers of those killed in Vietnam, and surrounding countries... on the receiving end of US attentions is, as usual, uncounted. It has , though, as I recall been estimated at over 3,000,000. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, beefybake said: There are just over 58,000 names on the US Vietnam Mermorial Wall. The numbers of those killed in Vietnam, and surrounding countries... on the receiving end of US attentions is, as usual, uncounted. It has , though, as I recall been estimated at over 3,000,000. Only 47,434 US servicemen died in combat though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginaro Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Wasn't expecting the RPG-thing to come out 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 "Shaping operations" may have simply hit such a thin crust they have pushed through rather than this all being some big planned multifront assault. That is to say smaller operations designed to push back the front to begin the process of making it easier for a major operation to jump off (a shaping operation) simple over ran lines of resistance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Seems too good to be true but quite a few tweets like this are popping up at the moment: guess this was so far behind the frontline until a couple of days ago that the Russians would not have prepared strong defences but this town is so strategic it's hard to believe the Ukrainians can just drive in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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