Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jagfox]

 

[Dev]

8 hours ago, Stellaboz said:

Hope we get Nicaragua at the next World Cup. b*****ds!

Which sport is that?!

Maybe the one after next at Football, hopefully.

[jagfox]

41 minutes ago, Detournement said:

No I think if there is any nuclear exchange between nuclear powers then we are all dead. 

But I also think that the Americans are hinting that they consider nuking Crimea to be the equivalent of nuking a Ukranian city. 

Apparently it would be a convention retaliation but a road nobody wants to go down. 

[Dev]

10 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Presumably Russia trying to over-stretch the Ukraine defences

Presumably Russia attempting to over stretch the Ukraine defences and resources during the winter. Next there'll be a fake "Ukraine" attack on Belarus followed by the Russians openly attacking from there.

The biggest danger for Russia (and Belorus) is if stray missiles or military go over or onto Poland, or elsewhere in Nato, let alone if they land and cause damage. If the West hits Belorus, as it is not formally part of Russia, then that would be devasting for Belorus and force Russia to make a huge decision about whether or not to continue supporting the puppet regime there.

 

[Bairnardo]

Wonder if the Yanks would consider going in dry on some Belarussian forces in a "Here Vlad, watch this...." type move, or it would still be considered as risky to attack a Russian ally.

[Boo Khaki]

6 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

You can clearly see the mines from above - is the cockpit view obscured in an MT-LB?

Suspect that Vladimir Vladimirovich has probably been at the moonshine and has absent-mindedly turned right on to the road rather than left to follow his mates.

His hatch is in the open position, they aren't buttoned up, so I doubt they're in a hot zone where they've panicked or not had a good look around. Looks every bit a simple, unthinking mistake.

[vikingTON]

5 hours ago, Hedgecutter said:

Dear World,

We refuse to condemn Russia who are ruining the lives of millions of Ukrainians, many of which have lost their lives as a result of this conflict.  However, flooding has left more than 30 million of our citizens in urgent need of help.  Send help, please.

Regards,

Pakistan 

Dozens of countries sat out the votes, because rightly or wrongly they couldn't give a toss about Ukraine. After all, the West has either done nothing or has stoked up the wars and civil conflicts of the global south.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Wonder if the Yanks would consider going in dry on some Belarussian forces in a "Here Vlad, watch this...." type move, or it would still be considered as risky to attack a Russian ally.

They won't do anything unless Belarus get directly involved.

Even then it is more likely to be more military resources for Ukraine.

It seems after Ukrainian successes in September that there is something of stalemate again as the Russians have retreated and dug in.

You'd think there would be a very small window left for either side to make any gains before winter kicks in. A possibility may be regrouping and consolidation over the winter months with fresh attacks in spring. That being said, the Ukrainians are still carrying out partisan activity behind Russian lines - you wonder if that could disrupt any spring Russian assault. In addition, the morale of Russian soldiers may take a hit if they are at the front for a long time - it seems the Ukrainians have it easier both supplying their front lines as well as rotating their troops.

If this drags on the big fear must be Putin taking more serious action.

Whilst it's right to support the Ukrainians I think someone needs to have a word with Zelensky - that he needs to give Putin a way out of this mess instead of ramping up the language.

[vikingTON]

Meanwhile, the land of the free is, err, begging the Saudis to run their oil economy according the American midterm cycle, in an utterly pathetic display:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/13/saudi-arabia-us-oil-production-cut-delay-biden-midterm-elections

Remember that the US is itself a major energy producer whose corporations are busy looting western Europe in exchange for generously supplying LPG at market rates. Its government is fuming at the consequences for its electorate. Meanwhile, the governments of western Europe gormlessly signed up to the same disastrous energy war, while not actually producing anywhere near enough energy to keep the lights on! 

Not to worry - permanently dismantling the social safety net is definitely a price worth paying. 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

How do they do destroy the Black Sea fleet with conventional weapons without Russia responding then?

Rather easily with any of several weapons systems.

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

No I think if there is any nuclear exchange between nuclear powers then we are all dead. 

But I also think that the Americans are hinting that they consider nuking Crimea to be the equivalent of nuking a Ukranian city. 

Crimea is Ukrainian, so, yes.

[Dev]

40 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

They won't do anything unless Belarus get directly involved.

Even then it is more likely to be more military resources for Ukraine.

It seems after Ukrainian successes in September that there is something of stalemate again as the Russians have retreated and dug in.

You'd think there would be a very small window left for either side to make any gains before winter kicks in. A possibility may be regrouping and consolidation over the winter months with fresh attacks in spring. That being said, the Ukrainians are still carrying out partisan activity behind Russian lines - you wonder if that could disrupt any spring Russian assault. In addition, the morale of Russian soldiers may take a hit if they are at the front for a long time - it seems the Ukrainians have it easier both supplying their front lines as well as rotating their troops.

If this drags on the big fear must be Putin taking more serious action.

Whilst it's right to support the Ukrainians I think someone needs to have a word with Zelensky - that he needs to give Putin a way out of this mess instead of ramping up the language.

The difficulty, all round, is that Putin may already have backed Russia into a corner by invading Ukraine again.

Given the track record of Russian/Soviet etc governments over so many years it would be a concern for the whole Western world if the same "brand" was to continue. It's not just about current regime change. It's about opening the eyes of ordinary Russians and showing them that there are better ways to run a country. That is not/would not be a short term task.

If Ukraine is absorbed into Russia, or destroyed outside it, this would amount to the virtual assurance that, sooner or later, Russia will be sufficiently confident to target some other countries or territories. Russia would have no reason to halt if they believe that they will get away with it.

Sadly, the West has allowed this situation to build up since parts of Georgia were stolen. It is necessary to stand up to bullies ASAP or else they will continue and get more confident and go at bigger targets. The longer it takes to face up the worse it will get to deal with it, and a comprehensive plan to deal with the outcome needs to be in place now.

There's no easy answer to dealing with Russia and its' long term threat to the western way of life.

[ICTChris]

Ammunition depot on fire in Belgorod now.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by ICTChris

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Whilst it's right to support the Ukrainians I think someone needs to have a word with Zelensky - that he needs to give Putin a way out of this mess instead of ramping up the language.

Given BJ flew to Ukraine to actively tell him not to accept any peace deal, never mind the one that had been tentatively agreed, that ship has long since sailed.

Taking Macron at face value that NATO does not want a World War I would be curious to know what he thinks will happen if/when Ukraine push Russia back to the Feb 2022 borders. They all shake hands and go home?

Zelenskyy has already stated that he wants Crimea back, and Ukrainian troops entering Crimea would almost certainly draw an almighty escalation from Putin. What do NATO do then?

NATO cannot control what Zelenskyy does and, in Russia's eyes, they would not be able to separate themselves from backing any advance from Ukraine beyond the Feb 2022 borders.

[Sergeant Wilson]

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

How do they do destroy the Black Sea fleet with conventional weapons without Russia responding then?

Sneak up.

[The DA]

53 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Sneak up.

You might be closer to the truth than you realise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_B-2_Spirit

[jagfox]

 

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

Given BJ flew to Ukraine to actively tell him not to accept any peace deal, never mind the one that had been tentatively agreed, that ship has long since sailed.

Taking Macron at face value that NATO does not want a World War I would be curious to know what he thinks will happen if/when Ukraine push Russia back to the Feb 2022 borders. They all shake hands and go home?

Zelenskyy has already stated that he wants Crimea back, and Ukrainian troops entering Crimea would almost certainly draw an almighty escalation from Putin. What do NATO do then?

NATO cannot control what Zelenskyy does and, in Russia's eyes, they would not be able to separate themselves from backing any advance from Ukraine beyond the Feb 2022 borders.

Do you honestly think that Zelenskyy would refuse a peace deal because Bojo told him not to? 

Ukraine's starting position for any deal has to be no territorial concessions. Russia will no doubt demand the Donbas, Crimea and the connecting oblasts. If both accept that outright victory is impossible then the settlement will be close to the lines established in 2014, just about allowing each to claim a victory.

[ICTChris]

I've seen these snippets shared on social media today, on the efficacy of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield

From Colin Powell's autobiography

From a paper assessing their potential impact in the India-Pakistan conflict

[vikingTON]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/13/saudi-arabia-putin-prince-mohammed

Fresh off calling for a full-scale war of regime change in Russia and Iran as well as fighting China over Taiwan this year alone, The Guardian's 'senior' foreign affairs commentator/armchair Simon 'psycho' Tidsall now wants to break ties with the Saudis for having the temerity to have an independent foreign and economic policy to the US. It's a wonder that they are all aligning with each other to oppose Western pressure! 

This is a good insight into the truly deluded alternative universe that Twitter flag-handle liberals are busy constructing in their heads. This will end in utter disaster unless the feedback loop of their moral absolutism is somehow wound in. Perhaps Musk taking over and ruining their wee toy would be an inadvertent act for global peace. 

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Do you honestly think that Zelenskyy would refuse a peace deal because Bojo told him not to? 

Err, yes, because by doing so he was instead flooded with even more weaponry to help him fight, and without NATO support Ukraine were fucked. Whilst on the back foot in the early days the Ukrainian position was very different to what it was now as Russia was still advancing. He spent most of his time begging for NATO to implement a no-fly zone, remember. I don't think BJ made any secret of the fact he was against a peace deal either.

According to Ukrainska Pravda sources close to Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages. The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with.

And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they [the UK and US] are not. Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined, and that here was a chance to “press him.”

It's been a long, long time since any of this was about finding a mutually acceptable way for both sides to be content to end the war, and is now fully focused on getting rid of Putin.

Macron talks earlier about wanting to avoid a world war. I believe the sentiment, but the actions of NATO appear somewhat at odds with that.