Silvio Tattiescone Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 32 minutes ago, welshbairn said: I could see a few of Wagner's "little green men" being sent into the Baltic states to stir up the Russian speakers. Think NATO might take a view on that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: Think NATO might take a view on that. I'm meaning undercover in civvies, like they did in 2014 in Donbass, get a bit of rioting going. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 The Baltic states are all NATO members and are also all functioning states - if you send mercenaries into them, even if there were still any semblance of plausible deniability, they would immediately be arrested. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 14 hours ago, FreedomFarter said: Another gratuitous massacre of civilians. Terrorising and murdering innocent people uninvolved in the fighting. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66031342 Ten confirmed deaths now, incuding 14 year old twin girls. Babies were injured in the attack. Horrific footage. It now seems that an Iskender missile was used in the attack rather than an s-300 which was previously blamed. This is significant as Iskenders are very accurate, implying that targeting a high profile restaurant was the plan. The strike was a year to the day on from Russia attacking a shopping centre in Kremenchuk, killing 18 civiians. In APril last year Russian forces attacked the railway in Kramatorsk, killing 60 people who were evacuating the fighting. Every time Russia has a setback in the war they do this. Either through malice or incompentence the Russian military repeatedly attacks and kills civilians. There's talk on Russian channels of a number of high profile commanders being removed due to tacit backing for the Wagner run on Moscow. Still lots of confusion in the air. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, ICTChris said: The Baltic states are all NATO members and are also all functioning states - if you send mercenaries into them, even if there were still any semblance of plausible deniability, they would immediately be arrested. I'm talking spies infiltrating malcontent Russian speaking groups, along with cyber stuff. That's how it started in Donbass, it wasn't that obvious until actual soldiers on holiday with their tanks arrived. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvo Montalbano Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Interesting that Lukasheknko was effectively reducing Putin to the more junior in the relationship; in the past he's very much seen as being in that role and has only ever really tried to make out that he is Putin's equal. Clearly feels emboldened by the whole thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GNU_Linux Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 4 hours ago, ICTChris said: Lukashenko is a horrible fucker whose regime fixed elections, used violence and torture on protesters. But this is right, there's something amusing about him giving this really weird, elongated update on what happened, like your grandad telling you about his trip to the doctor in far too much detail All these security guys bored as f**k listening to him go on and on and on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 2 hours ago, ICTChris said: Ten confirmed deaths now, incuding 14 year old twin girls. Babies were injured in the attack. Horrific footage. It now seems that an Iskender missile was used in the attack rather than an s-300 which was previously blamed. This is significant as Iskenders are very accurate, implying that targeting a high profile restaurant was the plan. The strike was a year to the day on from Russia attacking a shopping centre in Kremenchuk, killing 18 civiians. In APril last year Russian forces attacked the railway in Kramatorsk, killing 60 people who were evacuating the fighting. Every time Russia has a setback in the war they do this. Either through malice or incompentence the Russian military repeatedly attacks and kills civilians. There's talk on Russian channels of a number of high profile commanders being removed due to tacit backing for the Wagner run on Moscow. Still lots of confusion in the air. I remember reading an article that they have a team who select the targets for their missile strikes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 2 hours ago, welshbairn said: I'm talking spies infiltrating malcontent Russian speaking groups, along with cyber stuff. That's how it started in Donbass, it wasn't that obvious until actual soldiers on holiday with their tanks arrived. Given the lack of any reasonably organized group of malcontent Russians in the Baltics, versus active groups in eastern Ukraine before 2014, it would leave the infiltrated rabble rousers vulnerable to arrest. You get one of them willing to talk to police, and you’ve provoked an international incident with NATO, if that talker has any documents or other evidence, NATO Article 4 is immediately in play. While Article 4 is strictly consultive, if it was a proven attempt to attack the Baltics and foment revolt, the result would surely be less than favorable to Putin and Russia. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 1 minute ago, TxRover said: Given the lack of any reasonably organized group of malcontent Russians in the Baltics This isn't true. There are regular demonstrations, especially in Latvia but in all three, usually when they rip down Soviet era statues or memorials or when they change the law to exclude Russian only speakers from Government jobs, for example. Cyber attacks are a regular occurrence, most recently against Estonia. The threshold for invoking Article 4 and declaring war on Russia is necessarily very high, I'm not claiming Russia would try what they did in Crimea or Donbass in 2014 but they're well practised in sowing discord and backing right wing nationalists across Europe in the hope of undermining liberal democracy, which is well below the threshold of a serious NATO response given the sanctions on Russia are already close to maximum. A bit of internal havoc in the Baltics with the security forces going in heavy handed on Russian speakers in response to some protest would reinforce popular support within Russia for hardline policies from the Kremlin vis-a-vis Ukraine and possibly Putin with elections due next Spring. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 1 minute ago, welshbairn said: This isn't true. There are regular demonstrations, especially in Latvia but in all three, usually when they rip down Soviet era statues or memorials or when they change the law to exclude Russian only speakers from Government jobs, for example. Cyber attacks are a regular occurrence, most recently against Estonia. The threshold for invoking Article 4 and declaring war on Russia is necessarily very high, I'm not claiming Russia would try what they did in Crimea or Donbass in 2014 but they're well practised in sowing discord and backing right wing nationalists across Europe in the hope of undermining liberal democracy, which is well below the threshold of a serious NATO response given the sanctions on Russia are already close to maximum. A bit of internal havoc in the Baltics with the security forces going in heavy handed on Russian speakers in response to some protest would reinforce popular support within Russia for hardline policies from the Kremlin vis-a-vis Ukraine and possibly Putin with elections due next Spring. There is a huge difference between protest groups and an armed revolutionary group in a country that was sufficiently organized to eventually seize government buildings. Supporting Reich-wing parties and such is well accepted Russian practice due to various laws on freedom in the NATO realm. Also, the Donbas was about 40% ethnic Russian, where the Baltic top out around 25%. Russia and NATO have been playing cyber games for years. Article 4 only allows a call to consult and requires unanimous agreement for action, and doesn’t require any particular action. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 1 minute ago, TxRover said: There is a huge difference between protest groups and an armed revolutionary group in a country that was sufficiently organized to eventually seize government buildings. Supporting Reich-wing parties and such is well accepted Russian practice due to various laws on freedom in the NATO realm. Also, the Donbas was about 40% ethnic Russian, where the Baltic top out around 25%. Russia and NATO have been playing cyber games for years. Article 4 only allows a call to consult and requires unanimous agreement for action, and doesn’t require any particular action. The extreme Russian nationalists in the Donbass were a tiny ineffectual group that nobody took seriously until Russia sent their spooks in to organise and arm them. Any Russian involvement in the Baltics would be much less blatant and with far less ambition, just the hope of stirring things up a bit for the folks back home, and getting a bit of revenge on NATO. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, welshbairn said: The extreme Russian nationalists in the Donbass were a tiny ineffectual group that nobody took seriously until Russia sent their spooks in to organise and arm them. Any Russian involvement in the Baltics would be much less blatant and with far less ambition, just the hope of stirring things up a bit for the folks back home, and getting a bit of revenge on NATO. Better done with financial and technical support than actual illegals, in that case, fair enough. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 The 2014 political rupture in Ukraine did broadly fall along a west-east line. However that was far less due to ethnicity or mother tongue and much more to do with the very different economic arrangements of the two regions. There isn't the potential for such a cleavage in any of the Baltic states as each of their economies are far more integrated and whole. Then there's the huge gulf in poverty between 2014 Ukraine and current Lat/Est/Lit. To pick up a gun and start firing it, you have to have nothing going in your life and therefore nothing to lose. Such deprivation isn't present in the Baltic states. Russia could and probably already do fund and support groups of ethnic Russian arseholes in the Baltic states but there's not the material conditions in those nations for any militancy to arise. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salt n Vinegar Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 7 hours ago, scottsdad said: Just spotted a news article with a photo of Lukashenko. Fucking hell, he's a dead ringer for Scotty from Star Trek. You are in danger of unleashing internet hell on yourself. The Trekkies/Trekkers will have your guts for Klingon necklaces. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamthebam Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 8 hours ago, ICTChris said: Lukashenko is a horrible fucker whose regime fixed elections, used violence and torture on protesters. But this is right, there's something amusing about him giving this really weird, elongated update on what happened, like your grandad telling you about his trip to the doctor in far too much detail All these security guys bored as f**k listening to him go on and on and on. As Suzanne Vega sang: "His name is Luka, you've been pushed from a window on the second floor.." 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Russian channels reporting that Surovkin is being detained. Surovkin was the General out in charge of Russian forces after their decisive defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson. He stabilised the lines and managed to withdraw Russian occupation troops from Kherson city without losing too much equipment and men. He’s widely seen as the most competent Russian military commander but was sidelined in the New Year in favour of Gerasimov, who planned the Russian winter offensive, which took little territory and chewed up huge amounts of combat potential, losing equipment and men in large numbers. Surovkin was seen as close to Wagner and, despite him being one of the few military brass who publicly backed Putin during the mutiny, he’s alleged to have had forewarning of events. None of this is confirmed of course. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClydeTon Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 What happened last time a Russian* leader started purging his generals for no good reason? *USSR counts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, ICTChris said: ...Surovkin was seen as close to Wagner and, despite him being one of the few military brass who publicly backed Putin during the mutiny, ... Have seen some speculation that he had already been detained at that point and may have made that statement under duress. Edited June 28, 2023 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirty dingus Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Russia actively backed the Serbs in Kosovo less than a month ago. There is always tension in Mitrovica so a few rabble rousing mercenaries woujd probably be welcomed there with open arms. MOSCOW, May 31 (Reuters) - Russia supports Kosovo's Serbian population and believes their legal rights and interests must be protected, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday.31 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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