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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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Still no major breakthrough by the Russians in terms of taking cities. A disputed claim for Metripol a town of 15,000 on the road to Mariaupol.

Continued ballistic attacks on Kyiv and other cities. 35 injured in a tower block by a stray cruise missile but no fatalities.

Russians claiming Zelenskyy has surrendered but he is till tweeting away.

If this situation continues I guess the immediate worry is the Russians increase their bombardments of civic areas thus increasing civilian casualties which seem (thankfully) remarkably low for the size of the operation.

 

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1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:



 

 


If they don't get their initial objectives - which seems to be taking key towns and cities then you would think that taking out Ukrainian military installations like airfields, army bases etc to defang them would be the next route.

Ceasefire to follow and negotiating - with Russia keeping Donbas (and Crimea) and Ukraine committed to neutrality.

I think that's the minimum that Putin would accept.

 

I’m not sure he really wants to negotiate in good faith though. I don’t know how far he really wants to take this and it’s hard to negotiate with people who aren’t really interested in stopping their actions.

The main hope would be that the war isn’t going as well for Putin as he hoped and this is a way of withdrawal without losing face. That does rely on Putin being rational enough to accept that it’s not going well enough and his ambitions might not still be met.

Edited by Jambomo
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1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:



 

 


If they don't get their initial objectives - which seems to be taking key towns and cities then you would think that taking out Ukrainian military installations like airfields, army bases etc to defang them would be the next route.

Ceasefire to follow and negotiating - with Russia keeping Donbas (and Crimea) and Ukraine committed to neutrality.

I think that's the minimum that Putin would accept.

 

The initial objectives were air bases, army command and control centres. Then it was Kyiv, a land bridge on the cost near Crimea and Odessa and the area around the Black Sea. He could be looking to split the country either side of the Dnieper which would perhaps give him some sway in any settlement.

 

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10 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

My wife was in the Observer Corps in Dundee and was one of those that would have been in the shelters. There's a huge one beneath the car park at the Caird Hall that goes right over to the Tay Bridge. Every year they would run exercises simulating evacuating everyone in Dundee into the shelters. The 4 minute warning thing was a myth, the evacuation was planned to take place over days.

 

However, every single exercise ended with folk in Fintry getting fucked as they couldn't get them to the shelters in time. 

Every cloud...

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7 minutes ago, jagfox OG said:

Still no major breakthrough by the Russians in terms of taking cities...

Kharkiv is the one I find most surprising as there was an attempt in 2014 to turn that oblast into another breakaway republic, so I would have expected there to be scope for a significant fifth column element to emerge there. Putin probably thought they have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down in that sort of context.

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2 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Kharkiv is the one I find most surprising as there was an attempt in 2014 to turn that oblast into another breakaway republic, so I would have expected there to be scope for a significant fifth column element to emerge there. Putin probably thought they have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down in that sort of context.

Yeah, not heard much about it in dispatches at all since the conflict heated up. Speculating but if a sizeable Russo-focussed population may be trying to avoid direct assault for various reasons. 

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10 hours ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

The scariest moment in time I recall was the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 when everyone thought there was going to be a nuclear war between the US and The USSR. JFK called the soviets bluff and they halted the missiles going to Cuba.

I remember it, too. Wasn't 100% sure of what was going on, but there was a certain amount of tension in the air, allright. Ever since then I've taken these "imminent nuclear war and the end of the world" scenarios with a pinch of salt, although it may happen one day.

In exchange for removing/not siting American missiles in Turkey? Although that didn't come out until later, IIRC.

Edited by Jacksgranda
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US increasingly concerned by Russian military threat to Ukraine - from April 2014

Troop movements maybe not wholly linked to the current situation but an operation of this size would be months or even years in the planning. Makes me think they aren't going to sling shot around Ukraine then take out Poland and the Baltic States....

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Quote

08:43
Associated Press reports that Kyiv officials are warning residents that street fighting is under way against Russian forces, and they are urging people to seek shelter.

The warning issued on Saturday morning advised residents to remain in shelters, to avoid going near windows or on balconies, and to take precautions against being hit by debris or bullets.

 

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23 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Ba have cancelled all short haul flights due to technical issues seems strange 

When I saw they had "technical issues" my first thought was cyber attack on the British flag carrying airline.

That said I'm sure they have been hacked before and it was revealed they were running on windows XP or something equally shite.

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Local media in Russia has been warned over its coverage of the invasion, with threats to block access to their websites.

Its communications regulator Roskomnadzor accused 10 outlets on Saturday of falsely depicting what Russia calls a special military operation in Ukraine, and publishing false information.

It censured them for referring to it as a “attack, invasion, or a declaration of war”, and said the government will stop access if this continues. Fines of up to 5 million roubles are also possible.

From the Guardian.

 

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8 hours ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

I'd be wary of reports that don't have video or photographic evidence. If there's one thing we've seen from recent conflicts across the globe, when something gets shot down, someone usually gets a picture or video out pretty quickly.

It's legit, I was there, here's the picture.

 

images.jpeg-2.jpg

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