Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, alta-pete said:

Fuxake. Looks like @TxRover is going to have to up his game. 

Nah, going into exile in Yorkshire.

[Cosmic Joe]

12 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

Shite camouflage effort as well. 

[Guest]

Sent him to Belarus for being naughty. Such a daft conclusion.

[ICTChris]

I think this story is far from over.  Seems likely that Prigozhin called off the drive to Moscow because he wasn't going to get support, so he pulled back rather than go against Russian troops.  There are numerous Russian Army, FSB, GRU units that didn't oppose him though.  Hard to see if this is going to get left at this.

ALso, Wagner fighters are now to sign contracts with the MoD but that presumes they want to or are willing to.  Some may refuse and desert - in addition, who will command the Wagner units who do go over to the MoD?  Surely going to be issues with them being trusted to be part of the chain of command.  What happens to the people who don't want to sign?

You also have to say, all the information coming from this is coming from very unreliable sources.

[welshbairn]

Russian bloggers claiming Ukrainians have gained a major foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper by the Antonovsky bridge, Ukrainian bloggers denying it. Seems to be based on this video which looks a bit CGI'ed to me.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1673057548369371140?s=20

 

[Jacksgranda]

19 hours ago, highlandmac said:

The days of "capture the capital,win the war" are long gone

It wasn't the case in 1812,it wouldn't have been the case in 1941 if the Germans had managed it&it wouldn't be the case nowadays.

Aye, I suppose you could say 211 years is "long gone".

[Jacksgranda]

18 hours ago, MazzyStar said:

Fucking polar bears.

Probably a dangerous sport.

[Musketeer Gripweed]

What happens now to all the African & Middle East Wagner concerns now? Surely the oligarchs will still be wanting all that oil money?

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, Musketeer Gripweed said:

What happens now to all the African & Middle East Wagner concerns now? Surely the oligarchs will still be wanting all that oil money?

Prigozhin couldn't have been running the whole thing on his own, there's presumably high level consiglieri with the right Kremlin contacts who could take over.

[dirty dingus]

Where's the Chechens? They still on the march to confront the Wag's? Are Kadyrov and Pigozhin going to have a charity celebrity death match in Minsk?

[ICTChris]

17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Prigozhin couldn't have been running the whole thing on his own, there's presumably high level consiglieri with the right Kremlin contacts who could take over.

Wagner were/are strongly aligned with the GRU - military intelligence.  Utkin, the neo-Nazi who supposedly co-founded the group, was a member of GRU special forces who fought in Chechnya.

At least one of the units who allegedly stood down and didn't stop the Wagner thunder run was a GRU special operations unit.

[ICTChris]

5 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Where's the Chechens? They still on the march to confront the Wag's? Are Kadyrov and Pigozhin going to have a charity celebrity death match in Minsk?

They said they were going to intercept the Wagner column but never showed up and posted some footage of them patrolling.  This was geolocated to somewhere in Moscow Oblast and timed to show that it was filmed after Prigozhin had called off the mutiny.

There has been an unconfirmed film of some Kadyrov troops executing an alleged Wagner supporter by holding him down and cutting his throat.

[ClydeTon]

Surely Prigozhin and Putin still have a hell of a lot of bad blood between them, now?

They both publically (internationally, even) slated each other, with Putin refering to Prigozhin as a Traitor and a terrorist.

And, of course, Russian Special Forces - supposed to be the elite and most loyal part of any army - have been reported to have allowed Wagner to pass through freely. Had it escalated, there's a solid chance that many Russian units would have just put their guns down, surely?

Either way, it's highly unlikely that it's over yet.

[welshbairn]

37 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Wagner were/are strongly aligned with the GRU - military intelligence.  Utkin, the neo-Nazi who supposedly co-founded the group, was a member of GRU special forces who fought in Chechnya.

At least one of the units who allegedly stood down and didn't stop the Wagner thunder run was a GRU special operations unit.

One of the people he was seen chatting with at Rostov army HQ was Vladimir Alekseyev, GRU general in charge of overseeing Wagner.

Edited June 26, 2023 by welshbairn

[Mark Connolly]

Is Belarus the new Siberia?

[Thane of Cawdor]

8 minutes ago, Mark Connolly said:

Is Belarus the new Siberia?

It's the new South Down. "All political lives, unless they are cut off at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs."

Enoch (rivers of blood) Powell. 

[SlipperyP]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

You also have to say, all the information coming from this is coming from very unreliable sources.

What you''re saying is tthat I shouldn't believe everything I read on this thread?

WELL IT'S A BIT FUCKING LATE NOW!!!!!!!

[ICTChris]

20 minutes ago, SlipperyP said:

What you''re saying is tthat I shouldn't believe everything I read on this thread?

WELL IT'S A BIT FUCKING LATE NOW!!!!!!!

No, there are lots of reliable sources on the war in Ukraine, some more so than others.  Pretty much all the info about the supposed deal between the Russian government and Wagner has come from Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, who routinely lies about everything.

You can actually see this play out in real time as Peskov had said that the criminal case against Prigozhin and Wagner would be closed at the weekend but it's been confirmed today that it hasn't been closed.

[TxRover]

Prigozhin was facing a deadline of July 1 to basically cede control of his forces to the MoD.

His early comments were focused upon demanding a change of leadership at the MoD, while not specifically indicting/implicating Putin.

His stated goal of the drive north was to change leadership at the MoD, but also then later included swipes at Putin.

Thats when Putin declared Prigozhin a traitor and the FSB filed charges…charges which, despite the “agreement”, don’t seem to have been dropped.

Wagner pays/paid twice what the Russian MoD contracts pay/paid.

Wagner pays/paid a 5 million rubles, in cash, death benefit while the MoD advertises a theoretical 7.4 million ruble death benefit, but many Oblasts pay as little 1 million rubles. Wagner pays with a bag of cash and advises on avoiding taxes and scrutiny; the MoD isn’t a forthcoming and often games the system with endless MIA reports and no payment without a body.

Wagner has better leadership, equipment and had convict troops to use as cannon fodder; the Russian MoD has poor leadership, varying equipment levels and might now have some convict units to use in that manner.

Wagner overseas has been a prime source of gold and hard currency income for Russia, and the new traitor status of Prigozhin is seemingly causing his Arab friends to pivot toward American support rather than other Russian support, hindering Wagners/Russias efforts in Africa going forward.

Prigozhin apparently had some previous connection/dealings with Lukashenko, but it’s not clear if Lukashenko had leverage or just a relationship. It will be instructive to see if this delays the Russia/Belarus Union. Meanwhile, the MoD will likely be hesitant to employ Wagner troops, as they are seen to be unreliable. Wagner troops may well show up outside Russia in a new mercenary organization.

[welshbairn]

There was an odd thing back in 2020 when a load of supposedly Wagner boys were arrested in a spa hotel near Minsk airport, just before the election that Lukashenko was forced to rig. Bellingcat came up with a fabulous theory for why they were there.

Inside Wagnergate: Ukraine’s Brazen Sting Operation to Snare Russian Mercenaries

Edited June 26, 2023 by welshbairn