Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Nkomo-A-Gogo]

5 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Russian Telegram channel ‘FighterBomber’ has reported that Ukraine has used drones made of cardboard to hit a military airbase inside Russia. Literal paper aeroplanes. The channel is run by a former Russian Air Force pilot and still has links to the VKS.

 

 

Kamikaze origami. 

[Guest]

Der Spiegel investigation on the Nord Stream pipeline bombing. Very long read.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/investigating-the-attack-on-nord-stream-all-the-clues-point-toward-kyiv-a-124838c7-992a-4d0e-9894-942d4a665778?sara_ref=re-so-tw-sh

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, FreedomFarter said:

Der Spiegel investigation on the Nord Stream pipeline bombing. Very long read.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/investigating-the-attack-on-nord-stream-all-the-clues-point-toward-kyiv-a-124838c7-992a-4d0e-9894-942d4a665778?sara_ref=re-so-tw-sh

Very interesting, and fairly well balanced. Takes a reasonable line of not dismissing the possibility of Russian work to plant evidence, but seems to point clearly to Ukraine…at face value. They’re pretty coy.

[dirty dingus]

[DeeTillEhDeh]

This assassination (as it looks like) will make any attempt to oust Putin less not more likely.

If Putin goes it will be because he wants to go (with his chosen successor in place) or he's brown bread through natural causes.

[Newbornbairn]

 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

 

Considerably worse for Russia than it seems from that. The unit is an OTH (over the horizon) radar unit that was being used to track military movements in the southern battle theatre (Kherson) and help defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Very few of the mobile OTH units exist, and now they’ll likely have to try to use an AWACS system to cover the area, but that will risk that aircraft to Ukrainian defenses. It was also being used to monitor for seaborne drones heading east to attack Russian targets.

[ICTChris]

Multiple UAV attacks on airports across Russian regions.  Reports from Pskov, Tula and Bryansk of strikes. Russian media has reported that four Russian military transport planes were destroyed in Pskov.

The videos of the event seem to show propellered drones, looks like the Ukrainians have their own domestically produced version of Shahed drones.

[ICTChris]

Boom

 

 

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by ICTChris
Edited to fix the embed

[LongTimeLurker]

Think this is important because it means they are through the main Russian defence line:

 

[welshbairn]

Long piece on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Long piece on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/

Interesting article - one thing they do get a little wrong through omission is the comparison between the Kherson offensive to the current fighting, in Kherson the river made a hard barrier for Russian resupply.  Once they were reliant on a single bridge for resupply, their positions on the West of the river were untenable.  It took a significantly long, grinding period and the introduction of Surovkin as commander to get the Russians to bow to the inevitable and leave.  Those conditions don't exist in the areas where the Ukrainians are pressing the Russians making it a harder and most likely longer fight.

It does seem like Ukrainian advances in the last few days indicate the fastest advances of the Southern offensive so far.  Could be that they slow again and we go back to the attrition cycle or, perhaps less likely, exploit the breakthrough with significant advances.

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Interesting article - one thing they do get a little wrong through omission is the comparison between the Kherson offensive to the current fighting, in Kherson the river made a hard barrier for Russian resupply.  Once they were reliant on a single bridge for resupply, their positions on the West of the river were untenable.  It took a significantly long, grinding period and the introduction of Surovkin as commander to get the Russians to bow to the inevitable and leave.  Those conditions don't exist in the areas where the Ukrainians are pressing the Russians making it a harder and most likely longer fight.

It does seem like Ukrainian advances in the last few days indicate the fastest advances of the Southern offensive so far.  Could be that they slow again and we go back to the attrition cycle or, perhaps less likely, exploit the breakthrough with significant advances.

Thought it interesting the claim that getting to the sea isn't necessary to wreck the Russian land bridge between Donbass and Crimea, just getting within artillery range of the main Russian rail and road supply routes would be sufficient, especially if they keep battering the Kerch bridge.

[vikingTON]

Quote

 

US 'concerned that arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea are actively advancing', says national security spokesperson

The United States is concerned that arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea are actively advancing, the White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby, told a briefing on Wednesday.

Kirby said the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, had recently travelled to North Korea to try to convince Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition to Russia, Reuters reports.

 

Here was me thinking that the US supported the right of sovereign states to make their decisions without any external interference in their affairs. Not to mention the unlimited right of third party states to send arms to one participant in an active conflict zone.

 

[Guest]

On 26/08/2023 at 05:54, FreedomFarter said:

It's been discovered the Estonian PM, Kaja Kallas, personally invested in a trucking company that facilitates trade between Russia and Estonia:

https://archive.ph/CSw1x

Given how much she's harnessed anti-Russia sentiment to boost her own political standing, this revelation has been galling for many.

[vikingTON]

A rare, not unhinged analysis:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/30/ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-prigozhin-russia

[beefybake]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

A rare, not unhinged analysis:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/30/ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-prigozhin-russia

To me, it reads more like a statement of of the bleeding obvious.

No country's general populace wants their own country to be defeated in battle.

Edited August 30, 2023 by beefybake

[Guest]

On 28/08/2023 at 07:10, TxRover said:

Very interesting, and fairly well balanced. Takes a reasonable line of not dismissing the possibility of Russian work to plant evidence, but seems to point clearly to Ukraine…at face value. They’re pretty coy.

Didn't see your reply until now. Aye, I especially liked the bit on the intelligence reports. Funny how the Dutch found out about the planned operation and told the Germans but then the Germans didn't take it seriously. Also, just a small detail and nothing to do with the case but the father of the Ukrainian commando Der Spiegel uncovered, Valeri K. Sr., he'd been a people smuggler sending migrants from Turkey across the Mediterranean (presumably to Greece). I'd just imagined people smugglers were always from the nation the smuggling was been done from. Obviously not.

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, beefybake said:

To me, it reads more like a statement of of the bleeding obvious.

No country's general populace wants their own country to be defeated in battle.

The current Russian elite are making a fortune from the diversion to a wartime economy, no chance their children will be conscripted and sent into the frontlines, not with Moscow home addresses. The general populace is probably still onside but it will be interesting to see how nervous Putin gets with next Spring's election coming up. Mothers of dead soldiers will be more tricky to stamp on than lib teenagers and fascists like Igor Girkin and Prigozhin. The "Special Military Operation" spiel must be wearing thin with all the body bags coming back, and prices going up for what used to be normal staples. Putin's going to have to choose between running for election or declaring full scale conscription and military rule pretty soon.

[vikingTON]

7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The current elite are making a fortune from the diversion to a wartime economy,

prices going up for what used to be normal staples.

 Minus the body bags and that's western and central Europe too, where there are genuine electoral threats coming down the chute to the dogshit 'Unlimited Support for Ukraine' mantra all the time.

Quote

Putin's going to have to choose between running for election or declaring full scale conscription and military rule pretty soon.

Why would he have to choose? Elections in Russia (and many other countries) are managed beyond any semblance of a contest. The nationalist extreme right have just had their most prominent national figure removed and the liberals were locked up ages ago. There's always a small risk to a regime from any form of formal political process, but this is a country where the governing party recording 99% of the vote at ceremonial elections has been the norm and not the exception.