Energy Prices

[strichener]

2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Well, yes - because daily changes in the wholesale price of gas are what drive cap projections. That is how the price cap works.

The information I'm looking at can be found here.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/auxilione_auxilione-price-cap-daily-20220825-activity-6968825649570488320-OBKC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

Do with it what you want / pretend it isn't possible. Makes no difference to me

I'm not pretending anything.

I am asking how you can state that there is no evidence that this is a long term issue whilst at the same time show a doubling the cost in the short term.  They can't accurately predict prices is not an opinion, it is clearly the case.

2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

You can't guarantee anything bud.

You are correct, I should have said that the price cap payable will never reach £7k.  There is absolutely no way that this will happen.  Do you think people are in a position to pay 1/3 of their take home pay on energy?  If it gets to these sorts of levels then there will be mass non-payment and people will be deciding between paying for food, heat or their mortgage.  Energy pricing at this level wouldn't even be solvable by a government that is facing increasing interest rates on gilts and would need to borrow over £100bln additionally per annum.

[GAD]

13 minutes ago, strichener said:

I'm not pretending anything.

I am asking how you can state that there is no evidence that this is a long term issue whilst at the same time show a doubling the cost in the short term.  They can't accurately predict prices is not an opinion, it is clearly the case.

You are correct, I should have said that the price cap payable will never reach £7k.  There is absolutely no way that this will happen.  Do you think people are in a position to pay 1/3 of their take home pay on energy?  If it gets to these sorts of levels then there will be mass non-payment and people will be deciding between paying for food, heat or their mortgage.  Energy pricing at this level wouldn't even be solvable by a government that is facing increasing interest rates on gilts and would need to borrow over £100bln additionally per annum.

But this is happening now. It's already at this level with the last price increase, it's just been mostly affecting poorer people and has been mitigated by the fact it's been summer. There will be more people in this position when the October prices hit, way into the middle classes.

 

[Todd_is_God]

16 minutes ago, strichener said:

I am asking how you can state that there is no evidence that this is a long term issue whilst at the same time show a doubling the cost in the short term. 

I don't think I've done that, have I?

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Thanks for the clarification. I thought you were talking about guaranteeing wholesale prices.

Honestly, I think we're already fast approaching the breaking point right now and IMO it'll come through business closures leading to mass redundancies.

We're really in uncharted waters here in terms of the potential for changes to the way we live in this country. If masses of businesses close because their energy prices are uncapped there may be no coming back from that in any reasonable time frame. Mass redundancies with recruitment freezes across the country would be the tipping point for everything crashing down around us, mortgage defaults, repossessions, an unprecedented excess strain on the welfare state, an overwhelmed NHS (very likely this winter IMO), the lot. We could quickly be facing not a recession but a deeply entrenched depression lasting possibly years.

It's that serious.

And it's all self-inflicted. What a potential state to get into for the sake of Ukraine.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, oaksoft said:

Yes. Because we didn't move away from fossil fuels onto renewables fast enough. Sheer complacency and short-termism.

Nope. Because we are obsessed with virtue signalling.

[invergowrie arab]

Enjoying tory c***s on here trying to join in with genuine concerns about the (impact upon themselves of the) cost of living crisis.

Expect more of this as people try to save themselves form the lamp posts.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

There's also the risk of Legionella if you have a cylinder and don't heat the water enough.

But not Covid . . . [emoji6]

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Freeze the Cap
Fracking
Delink electricity from the cost of gas
Burn coal
Moving away from dependency on Russian gas (the UK isn't that dependent on it anyway) is a good idea, but continuing to buy what is available when it is available will still be a thing, especially so after the war.

More nuclear.

[Abdul_Latif]

2 hours ago, 101 said:

Just do washing on a windy day, it doesn't need to be that warm. Although if you have weans that need school uniform etc washed regularly it's probably not ideal in which case clothes horse in the room you are using and therefore heating the most would be cheaper than a tumble dryer.

Bad idea imo drying washing in a warm unventilated room.

Just asking for trouble with moisture retention and black mould.

If you are fortunate enough to have a spare room you are better to put a clothes horse in there with the window open and door shut.

[Hedgecutter]

Tragic trick I learned last year to avoid heating a house constantly when I'm the only one in it during the day:

When cold, go outside for a walk and then come home to a 'warmer' house.

(sounds more like a Viz top tip tbf)

[Billy Jean King]

And it's all self-inflicted. What a potential state to get into for the sake of Ukraine.

Your right it's pretty much self inflicted but your becoming obsessed by what is really just the catalyst, the root causes go way ,way back. To blame all this on the conflict in Ukraine is nonsense, it's merely brought it to a head.

[Kenneth840]

5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

I can tell you what we're doing.

While we can afford to cope with this rise, out of sheer principle I'm am not giving any energy company £3500 a year or anywhere near it.

We've decided to apply the principle of heating the person not the room.

So the central heating won't be going on at all and we've set the dial to the freeze option so it only comes on as an emergency to ward off freezing pipes in the central heating system. The hot water setting has been dropped to the minimum setting as well. We only need warm showers, we don't need piping hot ones.

We'll use a quick 10 minute blast of warm air heaters to get us warmed up and use woolly hats, fingerless gloves and woolly jumpers around the house. If the house gets too cold we'll take the dog out. I might even consider taking the laptop to a library or cafes and do stuff from there (unless they've all closed down). At night, I'll put the electric blanket on the bed for 15 minutes to remove the ice from the sheets and then full thermal pyjamas on. I've done all this before whilst caravanning so we know we can cope with pretty much anything providing the temperature doesn't drop to something ridiculous like -15 Celsius. The key is good quality woollen wear which gets incredibly warm and insulating and to avoid sitting around if possible.

Finally, I have 3 minor areas of poor insulation in the house which need fixing and I'll get onto that this month. I'll also be looking at LED lights although the current lights are a maximum of 14W and mostly 3W to 5W bulbs anyway.

When I cook our meals I'll probably put the veg in some water and into the oven with the rest of the food so we don't need to have a hob on as well.

I use two computers and they're usually both on at the same time. One of them will be switched off until I need it.

The kettle will only be getting filled with enough water to make 2 cups, we don't have a dishwasher and wouldn't use it if we did have one. The washing machine will only do full loads and we won't use a tumble dryer - the clothes will be outside.

I'm aiming to keep my winter bill to under £250 (it's £85 at the moment for summer usage at current rates) so I'll start with that lot and ease things if we have some spare credit.

Next April is going to be more problemmatic if we see another doubling. At that point I might need to come out of retirement for a year. So I'm dusting off my old coding skills as we speak.

For many people, this won't be a appealing set of things to do but for millions of people, even living like a caveman by doing all of the above won't be enough. That is very sobering

Has anyone said Henry the 8th likes this yet?

[Todd_is_God]

22 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

And it's all self-inflicted. What a potential state to get into for the sake of Ukraine.

Your right it's pretty much self inflicted but your becoming obsessed by what is really just the catalyst, the root causes go way ,way back. To blame all this on the conflict in Ukraine is nonsense, it's merely brought it to a head.

It's brought it to a head in the same way that clanking a bottle of beer onto another will bring that to a head.

It's perfectly fair to blame what is happening right now on the West's response to the war in Ukraine, regardless of whatever other contributing factors there may be.

Pretending otherwise might be comforting, but doesn't reduce the impact of a completely rash and short sighted response.

[Kenneth840]

I posted this on another topic. 

https://robinmcalpine.org/someone-has-to-start-acting-like-they-have-responsibility-for-the-wellbeing-of-the-people-of-scotland/

https://commonweal.scot/preparing-to-be-cold/

Edited August 26, 2022 by Kenneth840

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

Wife has been told that windows open, heating on full blast won't be a thing ever again in our house.

Anyone else experienced this bizarre behaviour?

[Left Back]

15 minutes ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said:

Wife has been told that windows open, heating on full blast won't be a thing ever again in our house.

Anyone else experienced this bizarre behaviour?

Nah.  Haven’t said f**k all to your wife.  Not sure why it’s bizarre talking to her though.

[Mark Connolly]

Kate Hoey with her finger on the pulse as always

 

[V.Aye.R]

8 hours ago, 19QOS19 said:

All my radiators are off upstairs. The heat rises from downstairs and we're only ever up there to sleep so there's no need for the heating to be burned in rooms we aren't using.

Happy to be corrected here but rads completely off possibly isnt the best advice. I'd read previously that the lockshield valves on each rad can be used to balance your system. 

Essentially the same idea you're suggesting but the upstairs rads get *some* flow through them but the majority of the hot water is 'pushed' downstairs. Ive noticed the benefit in my living room which has a radiator that is the last one in the loop and was often lukewarm at best. 

A quick search for balancing radiators on youtube will explain it. 

Also worth looking into deflector sheets to sit between external walls and radiators. 

Hope this is helpful. 

Edited August 26, 2022 by V.Aye.R

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Not enjoying this latest porno scenario from oaky if I’m honest.

[19QOS19]

Happy to be corrected here but rads completely off possibly isnt the best advice. I'd read previously that the lockshield valves on each rad can be used to balance your system. 
Essentially the same idea you're suggesting but the upstairs rads get *some* flow through them but the majority of the hot water is 'pushed' downstairs. Ive noticed the benefit in my living room which has a radiator that is the last one in the loop and was often lukewarm at best. 
A quick search for balancing radiators on youtube will explain it. 
Also worth looking into deflector sheets to sit between external walls and radiators. 
Hope this is helpful. 

Tbh it's as much about keeping upstairs cool as it is saving money. It's an older house so it stores the heat really well. If the heating is on upstairs for a long period of time it's absolutely roasting upstairs come bedtime. I like it to be cooler tbh.