bdu98196 Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Drawing European teams does have the advantage we kind of know them and some like us, may find it harder to adapt to the climate so does give a bit of a chance over South/Central American or African options. On the other hand its the WORLD cup, not the EURO's/NL, so going there just to play teams we do regular is a bit boring and uninspiring IMO. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 1 hour ago, charger29 said: Percentage chance of drawing other countries: I don't think this is correct - I think they haven't followed the draw procedure exactly right. I'm pretty sure our chances of Qatar are higher than Brazil or Argentina. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charger29 Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 I don't think this is correct - I think they haven't followed the draw procedure exactly right. I'm pretty sure our chances of Qatar are higher than Brazil or Argentina.Yeah, you're right. He said he did the draw before FIFA explained the full draw procedure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 58 minutes ago, craigkillie said: I don't think this is correct - I think they haven't followed the draw procedure exactly right. I'm pretty sure our chances of Qatar are higher than Brazil or Argentina. Trying to get my head around why this is? There are two balls in our pot that can’t be draws against Brazil or Argentina. Namely, Ecuador and the AFC/CONMEBOL winner. So the increases our risk of facing Brazil and Argentina to 1/6 (each). Roughly a 30%-35% chance that we’d face one of them. Similarly, Qatar cannot face Saudi Arabia or the AFC/CONMEBOL winner. So there would be the same 1/6 chance of being drawn against them. The only thing I can think that would tip the scales away from Brazil/Argentina is that Uruguay are in pot 2 so there is a high chance of them being drawn against a European opponent from pot 2, which in turn reduces the risk of us landing in that group. With Qatar, they can play anyone from pot 2 so there’s a 3/8 chance that they’ll avoid a UEFA team. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottMc77 Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 On 30/03/2022 at 10:16, denltfc said: You can't beat the fun of draw generator https://draw.inker.one/#/wc/gs I got: England Mexico Iran UEFA PO / Scotland 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFC. Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 I got... Qatar USA Morocco Scotland Probably the best group we could hope for if we do qualify, or one of them anyway! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elgin Macca Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Trying not to get too excited/invested in this because we still have A LOT of work still to do but I just cant help myself 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Deans Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Can't help but be excited about this. We're in the World Cup draw. Hopefully 2 games from reality 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spectre Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Donathan said: Trying to get my head around why this is? There are two balls in our pot that can’t be draws against Brazil or Argentina. Namely, Ecuador and the AFC/CONMEBOL winner. So the increases our risk of facing Brazil and Argentina to 1/6 (each). Roughly a 30%-35% chance that we’d face one of them. Similarly, Qatar cannot face Saudi Arabia or the AFC/CONMEBOL winner. So there would be the same 1/6 chance of being drawn against them. The only thing I can think that would tip the scales away from Brazil/Argentina is that Uruguay are in pot 2 so there is a high chance of them being drawn against a European opponent from pot 2, which in turn reduces the risk of us landing in that group. With Qatar, they can play anyone from pot 2 so there’s a 3/8 chance that they’ll avoid a UEFA team. I'm not sure if this is the process of the draw, but if they just pick the balls out 1 at a time and they go into groups A, B, C etc. then you could have a situation where after the first two pots are done (and more of the balls are drawn out must be moved to the next available group) that 2 groups have no European teams. For example Group A Group B ... Qatar Brazil USA Mexico In this instance, if Senegal (or another team not Poland/Serbia) get drawn into group A, then that is acceptable, but it forces group B to have a European pot 3 team because each group must have a European team and there is only 1 pot 4 European team which would be us. Because Qatar are guarantee to be in Group A, they are more likely to be allowed 3 non European teams in the first 3 pots than Brazil or Argentina. Although if Qatar do get a European team in pot 2/3 and Brazil or Argentina do get USA or Mexico in their group, then they also have a decent chance of drawing an African or Asian team in pot 3 which would force us into that pot. I'm really not too sure of the likelihood of it all, but I do think this has an impact Edited April 1, 2022 by Spectre 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 So basically, we are hoping for Qatar to get with a non-European pot 2 team? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Donathan said: So basically, we are hoping for Qatar to get with a non-European pot 2 team? Yes, and if they also get a non-European pot 3 team then we are guaranteed to draw them - we will just automatically be put in their group. By my calculation the odds of that happening are around 28%. Edited April 1, 2022 by craigkillie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, craigkillie said: Yes, and if they also get a non-European pot 3 team then we are guaranteed to draw them - we will just automatically be put in their group. By my calculation the odds of that happening are around 28%. I’ve got it at 22.5% of automatically getting Qatar. For that to happen they’d need: - To draw USA, Uruguay or Mexico from pot 2 (37.5% chance) - To draw one of Tunisia, Senegal or Morocco from pot 3 (60% chance, as they cannot get Iran, Japan or South Korea) There is still a chance “we” could get Qatar if they draw a UEFA team from pot 2 (or pot 3), but for that to happen we’d also need Brazil and Argentina both to have a European team in their group. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 That seems right actually - I had forgotten that they couldn't draw another Asian team from Pot 3. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spectre Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 I would say you more want as many of the European teams in pot 1 and 2 to pair up. We must have at least one of Qatar, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Mexico, USA in our group. Which, In my opinion is good. Obviously this could throw up something like Brazil, Germany and Senegal which would make our chances of progressing fairly trivial. But, Based on current results I'd guess we have at least half a chance of finishing above one of Mexico, USA, and Qatar if we are drawn against either or both of them. Easier said then done of course. Speaking about my own hopes for the draw, I would genuinely want a group full of no other European teams, and I really don't want England. Out of the pot 1 seeds we probably have more of a chance of snatching something against them than most, but across the recent men's and women's tournaments, We've frawn them in every single one and I'm just bored of them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lyle Lanley Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 On 30/03/2022 at 10:16, denltfc said: You could see some very lopsided groups Qatar have to be one of the weakest pot 1 teams ever to play at the world cup. You could have a Qatar, Switzerland, Tunisia, Canada or Brazil, Germany, Senegal, Scotland England will get Switzerland, Iran, Canada You can't beat the fun of draw generator https://draw.inker.one/#/wc/gs Got Argentina Mexico Poland 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Can't wait to find out England's route to winning it 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senorsoupe Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 WHoever we get, I hope we can at least score a goal this time around. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senorsoupe Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Best case for Canada Qatar Uruguay Tunisia Canada 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, doulikefish said: Can't wait to find out England's route to winning it Someone should post our route to the final tonight (Obviously starting with Ukraine and Wales) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nessies long lost ghost Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 When does the draw actually start? I'm not interested in them talking before it 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.