Next permanent Scotland manager

[Jeff Venom]

44 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Ash is backing using the next election as a 50+% or bust proxy referendum, the other 2 are wary of that and advocate a more gradualist path, building up a consistent Yes majority before risking it.

I could be wildly wrong but given this strategy by the Scottish gov, plus the many, many desperate attempts by the UK media and opposition parties for something (anything!) to be the thing which makes it all crumble, all anti-indy interested parties require is that number to fall below 50% and job's a good un. 

ETA: so you could understand the gradualist approach by the other candidates.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Jeff Venom

[Scary Bear]

10 minutes ago, sophia said:

@Elixir @Todd_is_God

Should I have put failed there too. I could add a question mark?

I’ll give her a pass. Nearly 3 years later and I’m still working from home. Result! Can’t be too safe. As it goes i’m full of the cold at the moment.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Scary Bear

[Jacksgranda]

20 minutes ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Regan’s stance could get her leadership votes, but the gradualist path is far more realistic IMO.

The gradualist path has been fairly gradual so far.

Although, what is a realistic alternative?

50%+ or bust de facto referendum seems fairly radical, and if it fails...

[sparky88]

15 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

The gradualist path has been fairly gradual so far.

Although, what is a realistic alternative?

50%+ or bust de facto referendum seems fairly radical, and if it fails...

It's not been that gradual. There was a referendum not even 10 years ago. It's in every SNP manifesto, one way or another. The next election is/ was supposed to be a de facto referendum on independence.  How much more fundamentalist would you like them to be?

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

The gradualist path has been fairly gradual so far.

Although, what is a realistic alternative?

50%+ or bust de facto referendum seems fairly radical, and if it fails...

Not sure myself, think we're unlikely to ever get the consistent 55-60% majority in the polls for indy that the gradualists want before pulling the trigger, the thing that made polling zoom from 28ish% to 45% in 2014 was actually announcing a real date when it could happen and proper campaigning could start. The next Westminster election is too soon though, especially with an unproven leader whoever that might be, maybe the next Holyrood one.

[Todd_is_God]

44 minutes ago, sophia said:

@Elixir @Todd_is_God

Why have you tagged me in this?

[ICTChris]

What happens if the SNP + Greens + Alba/SSP/etc get 50.1% in the next election?  I think the idea from Regan is that the SNP then start negotiations for independence.  But that isn't going to happen because the UK Government won't recognise it as a valid constitutional mechanism.  So then what?  What's the next step?  

 

[welshbairn]

Just now, ICTChris said:

What happens if the SNP + Greens + Alba/SSP/etc get 50.1% in the next election?  I think the idea from Regan is that the SNP then start negotiations for independence.  But that isn't going to happen because the UK Government won't recognise it as a valid constitutional mechanism.  So then what?  What's the next step?  

 

A national huff is declared until Westminster caves in.

[ICTChris]

3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

A national huff is declared until Westminster caves in.

Probably the best option, stick to our strengths as a nation.

[Scary Bear]

13 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

What happens if the SNP + Greens + Alba/SSP/etc get 50.1% in the next election?  I think the idea from Regan is that the SNP then start negotiations for independence.  But that isn't going to happen because the UK Government won't recognise it as a valid constitutional mechanism.  So then what?  What's the next step?  

 

Have a few meetings, yet another national conversation, maybe a conference. Ask for a referendum again.

If that doesn’t work, just give up on it, and try and get that GRR Bill sorted. If it can’t be sorted there’ll be some other navel-gazing crusade to divert attention.

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by Scary Bear

[eez-eh]

23 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Not sure myself, think we're unlikely to ever get the consistent 55-60% majority in the polls for indy that the gradualists want before pulling the trigger, the thing that made polling zoom from 28ish% to 45% in 2014 was actually announcing a real date when it could happen and proper campaigning could start. The next Westminster election is too soon though, especially with an unproven leader whoever that might be, maybe the next Holyrood one.

Expecting a big jump in support after calling a referendum doesn’t seem realistic. Most people are entrenched in their “side” now and it would be the same debates as we’ve had for the last 10 years.

[Paco]

The only legal route to independence is hoping the Westminster government of the day agree to a referendum, and winning it. 

Any candidate telling you anything else is lying. Is Ash fucking Regan willing to go to jail ala the Catalonians by declaring independence on a combined 50.1% vote for the SNP, Greens and Alba? Of course she isn’t. 

Sturgeon knows this full well and it’s a disappointment to me she just won’t say it. 

[scottsdad]

14 minutes ago, Paco said:

The only legal route to independence is hoping the Westminster government of the day agree to a referendum, and winning it. 

Any candidate telling you anything else is lying. Is Ash fucking Regan willing to go to jail ala the Catalonians by declaring independence on a combined 50.1% vote for the SNP, Greens and Alba? Of course she isn’t. 

Sturgeon knows this full well and it’s a disappointment to me she just won’t say it. 

The irony is, if Sunak agreed to a referendum right now, and said it had to be held before the end of 2023, it might work in the yoons favour. With Sturgeon stepping down, the fragmentation amongst the nationalists is becoming clear, from the gradualists to the Jim Sillars types looking for UDI. The independence cause looks weaker today than it has at any time since 2011 because it seems that the united front for independence is fraying.

He won't though.

[Darren]

The one silver lining to this Forbes bigotry cloud has been a day or two without talking about fucking independence. 

Is it naive to think we could maybe have a day or two a month when the focus is on issues like education and health rather than debating different ways to fail to get a referendum?

[Anonapersona]

The problem with overly religious people is that they tend to fall back on their beliefs for guidance. She might say that she'll keep her faith out of politics, and it might actually be true at the time.

At the end of the day it will interfere in her capability to make fair decisions.

I see these people every day.

[Trogdor]

Are there any murmurings of a fourth candidate? I need hope...

[The_Kincardine]

Nice little vignette.  Sturgeon's puppet, eh?

 

[ScotiaNostra]

Indy needs a leader or a very competent FM who does such a good day to day and improves peoples lives over the next 5 years (both ideally)

I think, that not one of these 3 contenders is anywhere near either of those roles. Id be surprised if they can change that opinion now

Edited February 23, 2023 by ScotiaNostra

[Savage Henry]

8 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

Indy needs a leader or a very competent FM who does such a good day to day and improves peoples lives over the next 5 years (both ideally)

I think, that not one of these 3 contenders is anywhere near either of those roles. Id be surprised if they can change that opinion now

Right.  Make the case for independence as a means to an end - a kinder, fairer society - and not an end in itself.  If what follows independence is Kate Forbes, that case is pretty hard to make. 

[Shuggie_Murray7]

Have we established if Forbes actually follows every part of the bible? Or only select snippets?