Next permanent Scotland manager

[orfc]

27 minutes ago, razamanaz said:

But Nicola said there was a wealth of talent there - was Nicola a liar?

Either that or deluded. She spent her last week denying things that had just happened...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65063944

 

Then there was her denial that SNP president Mike Russell had said the party was in a mess.

Mr Russell had answered the question "Is your party in turmoil?" with the words: "Well, I think it's fair to say that there's a tremendous mess and we have to clear it up."

Ms Sturgeon also insisted that her party had not lied to journalists about its plummeting membership figures despite evidence to the contrary, not least the resignations of Mr Foote and Mr Murrell.

[Crùbag]

42 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

It’s Hobson’s choice.  Each of the candidates is so fundamentally flawed that the SNP loses whoever wins.  Just a terrible final three. 

It is. Least worst is Yousaf but he's hardly anything to write home about.

Interesting facts here though. Forbes clearly doesn't have the support of her elected colleagues. If she wins, it will be the old conservatives in the wider membership - that have voted her in.

 

Edited March 27, 2023 by Crùbag

[Crùbag]

33 minutes ago, razamanaz said:

But Nicola said there was a wealth of talent there - was Nicola a liar?

Compared to the other parties, it probably is a 'wealth'. I can't think of any other MSP that does inspire confifence - Swinney and Robertson though obvs not standing for different reasons. Maybe Monica Lennon in Labour.  Maybe some of the Greens. The Lib Dems and Tories are all freaks and weirdos.

The SNP's big hitters are all in Westminster.

[Trogdor]

13 minutes ago, Crùbag said:

Compared to the other parties, it probably is a 'wealth'. I can't think of any other MSP that does inspire confifence - Swinney and Robertson though obvs not standing for different reasons. Maybe Monica Lennon in Labour.  Maybe some of the Greens. The Lib Dems and Tories are all freaks and weirdos.

The SNP's big hitters are all in Westminster.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

1 hour ago, Marlo Stanfield said:

What a fucking shit show this country is. The country that invented modern medicine, the steam engine, tv and telephone etc and these three gimps are all we can come up with. 

[Trogdor]

26 minutes ago, Crùbag said:

It is. Least worst is Yousaf but he's hardly anything to write home about.

Interesting facts here though. Forbes clearly doesn't have the support of her elected colleagues. If she wins, it will be the old conservatives in the wider membership - that have voted her in.

 

I always think having the support of the MSPs/MPs is overblown. Unless they are going to openly revolt its pretty much irrelevant if they file in behind you. 

In the event of Forbes win (I still consider it unlikely) then Humza will swear fealty (for some plum job) and encourage his supporters to do likewise.

The 34 (None Yet/None) will swing behind Forbes as they are all career politicians (You again - Wishart!).

There will be some elected members who will either want a meeting with Forbes to speak to her directly about trans rights, equal marraige etc. and there will be party members who leave as its all too much for them.

I doubt we'll see any MSPs or MPs leave. Least of all having watched what has happened to the Alba das. Its a brave person to step out the tent. There may even be a scenario where the Alba das return (for better or worse!).

Edited March 27, 2023 by Trogdor

[Savage Henry]

25 minutes ago, Crùbag said:

It is. Least worst is Yousaf but he's hardly anything to write home about.

Interesting facts here though. Forbes clearly doesn't have the support of her elected colleagues. If she wins, it will be the old conservatives in the wider membership - that have voted her in.

 

I wouldn’t put it past Forbes to have voted for Regan.  That’d pretty much sum up this shitshow.  

[alta-pete]

1 hour ago, FreedomFarter said:

Along those lines, Forbes is as much Sturgeon's protégé as Yousaf is. It was Sturgeon who facilitated Forbes' rise, ultimately appointing her to finance minister.

 Not really. After the previous incumbent was outed as a pederast and with about 3 hours notice, Forbes was identified as about the only SNP MSP with any real world experience in finance. I think it was as much a case of ‘you’ll do’ rather than any sort of wilful grooming for future leadership. 

And her immediate stance on anything to do with HR’s governance seems noticeably at odds with Sturgeons position. 

[Trogdor]

19 minutes ago, George Cowley said:

 Not really. After the previous incumbent was outed as a pederast and with about 3 hours notice, Forbes was identified as about the only SNP MSP with any real world experience in finance. I think it was as much a case of ‘you’ll do’ rather than any sort of wilful grooming for future leadership. 

And her immediate stance on anything to do with HR’s governance seems noticeably at odds with Sturgeons position. 

I don't disagree on the broad point that Forbes isn't Sturgeon's protégé. That's been quite apparent in this contest. Humza has been right next to NS ever since he announced his candidacy.

Wrt. Forbes stepping into the Finance Secretary role. Could they not just have parachuted Swinney back in at the time?

[DrewDon]

If Forbes did get it, it would be interesting to see what brief she offered Yousaf, especially after essentially branding him as incompetent in every role he has held in Government to date. 

[Jacksgranda]

5 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

If Forbes did get it, it would be interesting to see what brief she offered Yousaf, especially after essentially branding him as incompetent in every role he has held in Government to date. 

He could hand out the pens and the bits of paper at the cabinet meetings. Wouldn't be too hard to swap a pen for a bit of paper with your neighbour, should a mistake have occurred.

Handing out the agendas would be done at the door.

[Trogdor]

4 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

He could hand out the pens and the bits of paper at the cabinet meetings. Wouldn't be too hard to swap a pen for a bit of paper with your neighbour, should a mistake have occurred.

Handing out the agendas would be done at the door.

I think that's Deputy First Minister and Minister without portfolio. Makes him sound important but he can't do any damage.

[Trogdor]

Who's going to come out with a prediction?

I'll go first - Humza to win on first preferences:

Humza 52%

Forbes 41%

Regan 7%

[Jacksgranda]

2 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

I think that's Deputy First Minister and Minister without portfolio. Makes him sound important but he can't do any damage.

Maybe all politicians should have those "offices".

[Theyellowbox]

4 hours ago, Highlandmagar said:

If its Kate Forbes, then we shall have an SNP government led by a bigoted Tory.

I think what would be the case, is that a forbes win would be a shift to the right, but equally, I'd say if Humza wins, then it also needs to shift a bit to the right, otherwise it all falls apart.

It all comes down to what people ultimately want. If you are all about domestic liberalism, then Humza is your man. If you want independence at all costs, then it is Forbes. With Forbes, goes the, albeit slightly overplayed, view that Scotland is massively progressive, but with Yousaf goes the chance of a referendum anytime soon. (Unionists clearly fear Forbes much much more).

None of the options over appeal TBH. If elected, Forbes would almost need to be overly positive in the messaging around separating faith and politics.

Whichever wins, its not as bad as being signposted in media and either would have to include the other in their government. 

[Donathan]

2 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Who's going to come out with a prediction?

I'll go first - Humza to win on first preferences:

Humza 52%

Forbes 41%

Regan 7%

Yousaf 46%
Forbes 39%

Regan 15%
 

Yousaf 53%
Forbes 47%

 

[DrewDon]

I mean, I know the other two candidates are very flawed, but if Regan gets into double figures on first preferences then the membership might need purged.

[Dunning1874]

1 hour ago, Crùbag said:

Compared to the other parties, it probably is a 'wealth'. I can't think of any other MSP that does inspire confifence - Swinney and Robertson though obvs not standing for different reasons. Maybe Monica Lennon in Labour.  Maybe some of the Greens. The Lib Dems and Tories are all freaks and weirdos.

The SNP's big hitters are all in Westminster.

Who are these SNP big hitters in Westminster? The only examples I can see of the SNP deliberately keeping a big name down there instead of getting them into Holyrood were Robertson, who has only ended up in Holyrood due to losing his Westminster seat, and Hosie.

Those MPs who've made a name and public profile for themselves in their time as MPs were all total nobodies when they were first selected, which was relatively recently for all of them. Black was 20 when she was elected, Flynn had no national profile before December and was only first elected in 2019. I don't see any examples of them purposefully treating Holyrood as a dumping ground for second rate candidates in the manner of Labour in the noughties, where anyone with any reputation was immediately whisked off to Westminster.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Dunning1874

[welshbairn]

I think Yusaf will get over 50% on first preference votes but if he doesn't Forbes will almost certainly win on Regan's second preference votes.

[Salt n Vinegar]

18 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Who's going to come out with a prediction?

I'll go first - Humza to win on first preferences:

Humza 52%

Forbes 41%

Regan 7%

I think that his winning margin will be a bit bigger. If he doesn't win on the first ballot, i suspect that Forbes might sneak it very narrowly. 

Not seen anything from Regan to suggest that she has a snowball's chance in Hell.