The Very Meh Humza Yousaf Thread.

[vikingTON]

1 minute ago, bigmarv said:

I don't see anything on here about Humza going all in with the "it was Israel what done it" stuff re. the hospital blast in Gaza last night. 

Just a tad embarrassing, not to mention dangerous.  

I'd say that the commander in chief of the world's leading military and nuclear power piling in with his take is dangerous, not that of the First Minister of a province of a client state.

I doubt that the Middle East is waiting to hear what the leader of Quebec has to say before making their own judgment either. 

[bigmarv]

2 minutes ago, virginton said:

I'd say that the commander in chief of the world's leading military and nuclear power piling in with his take is dangerous, not that of the First Minister of a province of a client state.

I doubt that the Middle East is waiting to hear what the leader of Quebec has to say before making their own judgment either. 

Biden is talking on the back of verified intel. FM was talking on the back of Twitter BS. 

Agree on global impact, how about local impact? Possibility of some mentalist acting on the back of the leader of Scotland stating publicly that Israel had bombed a hospital. 

[Trogdor]

There's a lot to criticise Humza for (like his new indy strategy ) but his take on events in Israel and Palestine has been more nuanced than any other leader save Varadkar.

[moses1924]

11 hours ago, Donathan said:

If Scotland continues to send 40+ SNP MPs to Westminster then they’ll hold the balance of power in that hung Parliament.

If Labour are the largest party would they not just go into coalition with the lib dems? And the SNP would not support the torries?

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, moses1924 said:

If Labour are the largest party would they not just go into coalition with the lib dems? And the SNP would not support the torries?

It depends on the exact numbers as to potential coalitions, but I would point out that at a local council level, there are a lot more Lab/Con coalitions than there are SNP/Con coalitions. I suspect that going into formal coalition with the Tories would result in a mass exodous of SNP grassroots members. Could you say the same about Starmerite Labour?

[orfc]

Saying which parties you would or wouldn't cooperate with just reduces your bargaining power if it comes to that

Besides even if labour went "no you're not getting a ref" what are the SNP going to do? Vote with the Tories against a labour minority gov? Same thing as being in cahoots with them. Only thing they could do is abstain which would have pretty much no effect 

[Donathan]

It will never actually happen in practice but if a Tory UK government offered the SNP a referendum in return  for supporting them, the SNP would be mad not to consider it. 

[Jedi2]

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

It will never actually happen in practice but if a Tory UK government offered the SNP a referendum in return  for supporting them, the SNP would be mad not to consider it. 

Then how would you win a Ref after putting the Tories into govt (and keeping Lab and Lib Dems out) in that scenario?

The only 'route' now I reckon is sustained polls reaching 55-60% and probably a Lab govt agreeing on that basis (a Tory govt never will), but...depending on what Labs eventual Devolution offer is, makes getting to 55-60% less likely anyway.

[Dunning1874]

The step involving an actual acknowledgement of reality for an SNP leader to take in terms of an independence strategy is to openly admit that there is no obvious route to a referendum and no majority Westminster government is going to acknowledge any kind of mandate, whether that's a credible mandate or one that exists only by arbitrary standards set by the SNP. You can state the fact that's a democratic outrage and shows the inherent flaws of the Union while also acknowledging the fact you can't change it.

Therefore they should just set out to first and foremost be a competent government and build trust through competence over time until such time as either a hung parliament which allows the SNP to demand a referendum in return for support or massive, unprecedented growth in pro-independence polling tips the balance, but it would take an extremely brave leader to risk the backlash from people who want UDI yesterday.

Which brings us to competence in policy, and the announcement of a council tax freeze is looking like a massive own goal in that regard.

I think incompetence has generally been overstated since Yousaf became FM: the only policy which has gone down the tubes in that time was DRS, and that was perfectly good legislation which the Tories interfered in for no reason other than seeing a constitutional bunfight and opportunity to trample devolution they could hurt the SNP with. It's certainly worked. Otherwise there's also been the Ewing saga, but I see that as more the inevitable consequence of the total lack of internal discipline within the SNP under Sturgeon than a reflection on Yousaf. Whoever followed her was going to have a majority threatening shitshow from one flank or the other, having had several years of backbenchers being emboldened that they could go as far off message and be as critical as they liked while facing no consequences, as Sturgeon had a large enough profile and popularity with the public that it was never going to seriously hurt as long as she was in charge. Now she's gone that's not the case.

When following those setbacks and a by-election battering you try to relaunch with some new policies, then making one of them a council tax freeze having not even consulted either the Greens who you need to vote it through, or more importantly COSLA, is very stupid. That is quite obviously going to cause an uproar from councils and quickly make the story a negative one with the inevitable backlash, drowning out every other policy initiative. It's even worse when your Finance Minister openly admits it was thought up hours before the speech rather than getting on message that this was all seriously thought through and costed etc etc.

The evident policy on the hoof approach in a panicked response to a bad by-election and bad polling isn't going to do anything to change the perception of a government which has ran its course scrambling for anything to arrest their decline.

[Donathan]

12 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

The step involving an actual acknowledgement of reality for an SNP leader to take in terms of an independence strategy is to openly admit that there is no obvious route to a referendum and no majority Westminster government is going to acknowledge any kind of mandate, whether that's a credible mandate or one that exists only by arbitrary standards set by the SNP. You can state the fact that's a democratic outrage and shows the inherent flaws of the Union while also acknowledging the fact you can't change it.

Therefore they should just set out to first and foremost be a competent government and build trust through competence over time until such time as either a hung parliament which allows the SNP to demand a referendum in return for support or massive, unprecedented growth in pro-independence polling tips the balance, but it would take an extremely brave leader to risk the backlash from people who want UDI yesterday.

Which brings us to competence in policy, and the announcement of a council tax freeze is looking like a massive own goal in that regard.

I think incompetence has generally been overstated since Yousaf became FM: the only policy which has gone down the tubes in that time was DRS, and that was perfectly good legislation which the Tories interfered in for no reason other than seeing a constitutional bunfight and opportunity to trample devolution they could hurt the SNP with. It's certainly worked. Otherwise there's also been the Ewing saga, but I see that as more the inevitable consequence of the total lack of internal discipline within the SNP under Sturgeon than a reflection on Yousaf. Whoever followed her was going to have a majority threatening shitshow from one flank or the other, having had several years of backbenchers being emboldened that they could go as far off message and be as critical as they liked while facing no consequences, as Sturgeon had a large enough profile and popularity with the public that it was never going to seriously hurt as long as she was in charge. Now she's gone that's not the case.

When following those setbacks and a by-election battering you try to relaunch with some new policies, then making one of them a council tax freeze having not even consulted either the Greens who you need to vote it through, or more importantly COSLA, is very stupid. That is quite obviously going to cause an uproar from councils and quickly make the story a negative one with the inevitable backlash, drowning out every other policy initiative. It's even worse when your Finance Minister openly admits it was thought up hours before the speech rather than getting on message that this was all seriously thought through and costed etc etc.

The evident policy on the hoof approach in a panicked response to a bad by-election and bad polling isn't going to do anything to change the perception of a government which has ran its course scrambling for anything to arrest their decline.

Spot on. 

[GTG_03]

On 18/10/2023 at 10:52, Donathan said:

IMO there are only two feasible routes available.

 

The first is tremendously unlikely. The first is that we get a UK government that actively wants Scotland out. This isn’t going to happen for a number of reasons.

 

The second and by far likeliest scenario to how Scotland gets independence is that at some point in the next few UK general elections you’re going to see a hung Parliament. It’s happened at two of the last four and I don’t think either of the main parties are popular enough to see the kind of sustained long term majorities that Blair and Thatcher enjoyed. I do think Keir Starmer will get a majority next year (and a pretty sizeable one at that) but in 2029 or 2034 or 2039 there will absolutely be a hung Parliament.

 

If Scotland continues to send 40+ SNP MPs to Westminster then they’ll hold the balance of power in that hung Parliament. It’s very much possible that the largest party (be it Labour or the Tories) would be relying on SNP support to prop up their government. In that case the price of that support would be an independence referendum for sure. 

I've seen a few people mention this hung parliament. The rest of the UK(people of england) won't accept Scotland having the balance of power. 

Wouldn't the Tories and labour just say 'its inconclusive, let's have another general election' 

Neither would accept 'giving' Scotland a referendum and potentially being seen as the party that 'broke up the UK' which is the stick that would be used to beat them with forever more.

[BB_Bino]

On 16/10/2023 at 18:02, Donathan said:

I want someone to ask Humza what his next move is when the PM says no again. 

Reading various articles and watching various clips, the answer to this seems quite simple. The SNP will then turn the Scottish Election into a "defacto referendum" and the more the Westminster Government say no, the more they will play into the the SNP hands, they'll just play the long game. A good number of people have lost faith in the SNP being the route to independence, so it pulls them back onside. I think everyone knows that the PM will continue to say no, he would be a fool to say yes, but if the SNP stand at the Scottish election on the basis that a vote for them is simply a vote on Scottish Independence then there is absolutely no question that they have a mandate for it, when they win.

[vikingTON]

33 minutes ago, BB_Bino said:

Reading various articles and watching various clips, the answer to this seems quite simple. The SNP will then turn the Scottish Election into a "defacto referendum" and the more the Westminster Government say no, the more they will play into the the SNP hands, they'll just play the long game. A good number of people have lost faith in the SNP being the route to independence, so it pulls them back onside.

It really doesn't because the SNP leadership have lost credibility on this de facto independence referendum line. Yousaf and the party membership can call the GE whatever they want - the electorate are not going to listen, and that will include a significant number of Yes voters too. 

[houston_bud]

22 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

Then how would you win a Ref after putting the Tories into govt (and keeping Lab and Lib Dems out) in that scenario?

The only 'route' now I reckon is sustained polls reaching 55-60% and probably a Lab govt agreeing on that basis (a Tory govt never will), but...depending on what Labs eventual Devolution offer is, makes getting to 55-60% less likely anyway.

I agree with most of your post but it was a Conservative government that granted the last referendum.

I think that if support was around 60% or above for a couple of elections (UK then Scottish - or vice versa) then it would be difficult to ignore for either of the big parties. I think in that case a lot of people who don't support independence would accept that another referendum was fair enough.

[Donathan]

3 hours ago, BB_Bino said:

Reading various articles and watching various clips, the answer to this seems quite simple. The SNP will then turn the Scottish Election into a "defacto referendum" and the more the Westminster Government say no, the more they will play into the the SNP hands, they'll just play the long game. A good number of people have lost faith in the SNP being the route to independence, so it pulls them back onside. I think everyone knows that the PM will continue to say no, he would be a fool to say yes, but if the SNP stand at the Scottish election on the basis that a vote for them is simply a vote on Scottish Independence then there is absolutely no question that they have a mandate for it, when they win.

Agreed, but that doesn’t mean that the UK government won’t just ignore it.

[Jupiter Jazz]

This idea that either the Tories or Labour would go into a coalition with a party who's main aim is to break up the UK is absolutely mental. I can't believe folk think that could happen.

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

11 hours ago, GTG_03 said:

I've seen a few people mention this hung parliament. The rest of the UK(people of england) won't accept Scotland having the balance of power. 

Wouldn't the Tories and labour just say 'its inconclusive, let's have another general election' 

Neither would accept 'giving' Scotland a referendum and potentially being seen as the party that 'broke up the UK' which is the stick that would be used to beat them with forever more.

I agree that they wouldn’t give into SNP demands for another referendum in the event of a hung Parliament.

It’s not Scotland that would have the balance of power, or Scotland that wants a referendum though.  It’s merely a minority of the Scottish electorate, and even they are abandoning the SNP in their droves.

Edited October 20, 2023 by CarrbridgeSaintee

[GTG_03]

5 minutes ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

I agree that they wouldn’t give into SNP demands for another referendum in the event of a hung Parliament.

It’s not Scotland that would have the balance of power, or Scotland that wants a referendum though.  It’s merely a minority of the Scottish electorate, and even they are abandoning the SNP in the droves.

It's not SNP demands, if Scotland vote for it then it's the Scottish people's democratic right to be implemented. 

However much you try and wrangle out of it. Fwiw I'm not sure how I'd vote in indyref2 but if Scotland votes for it then it absolutely should be held. 

If the UK is in great shape and serves Scotland so well, what are they worried about?

Agree about voters leaving the SNP in droves tho. This could be a pointless debate really as it looks like the snp will have a poor election.

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

26 minutes ago, GTG_03 said:

It's not SNP demands, if Scotland vote for it then it's the Scottish people's democratic right to be implemented. 

However much you try and wrangle out of it. Fwiw I'm not sure how I'd vote in indyref2 but if Scotland votes for it then it absolutely should be held. 

If the UK is in great shape and serves Scotland so well, what are they worried about?

Agree about voters leaving the SNP in droves tho. This could be a pointless debate really as it looks like the snp will have a poor election.

Scotland's not demanding a referendum though and Scots aren't voting for one.

For me it's not about anybody being worried, as opinion polling shows Union support being in a strong position.  The Tories got in on a mandate on not allowing another referendum though. and that mandate should be respected, as should the result of the 2014 one, as per the Edinburgh Agreement.

[GTG_03]

19 minutes ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Scotland's not demanding a referendum though and Scots aren't voting for one.

For me it's not about anybody being worried, as opinion polling shows Union support being in a strong position.  The Tories got in on a mandate on not allowing another referendum though. and that mandate should be respected, as should the result of the 2014 one, as per the Edinburgh Agreement.

They will be if they vote in a party that has it as their main policy. 

It's democracy or meant to be anyway.

You're deliberately missing the point so I'll leave you to it.