jagsfan57 Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 14 hours ago, oneteaminglasgow said: Based on the model above saying that 63 is the tipping point for likely winning the league, that would mean us winning all of our remaining 5, and making it 6 wins in a row overall. I have no idea when we last had a run of form that good, but my guess would be that it’s some time ago. Even if we did it, we’d be looking for favours from elsewhere to stop Queens or Dundee getting more than that. I think that for us, and Ayr, the best we can hope for is catching either Dundee or Queens, but not both. I thought it might have been the league 1 season - but it was only 5 wins and a draw. Totally different circumstances, even although we were in a similar position - ie several points off top with a few teams in between. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 23 hours ago, ptfc. 22 said: What did you use to create the sim? excel macro, Elo formula is from clubelo.com and starting ratings are based on bookies odds at start of season 20 hours ago, ExiledLichtie said: Your model is so much more confident about Arbroath than I am! yeah there's always one bit I think "aye that looks a bit wrong" any time I post it, and that would be it for this occasion. Arbroath are rated higher than Hamilton, have a 3 point plus practically insurmountable GD advantage and there's only 6 games left hence the %. However with Hamilton having their easiest remaining game on paper and Arbroath one of their hardest it might look different on Sunday. Hamilton were about 88% favourite to go down at start of January so it can change quite a bit. 15 hours ago, oneteaminglasgow said: Based on the model above saying that 63 is the tipping point for likely winning the league, that would mean us winning all of our remaining 5, and making it 6 wins in a row overall. I have no idea when we last had a run of form that good, but my guess would be that it’s some time ago. Even if we did it, we’d be looking for favours from elsewhere to stop Queens or Dundee getting more than that. I think that for us, and Ayr, the best we can hope for is catching either Dundee or Queens, but not both. Can only imagine it was the 8 wins in a row the last time we won this league (even that had the fog abandonment in the middle which we almost certainly weren't going to win), as said the run to win L1 was 5 wins, a draw away to Cove then another win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yid_in_Exiile Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 With all such elo or monte carlo modelling, as the remaining data points (i.e. games) reduce then the variance from the average gets less and less likely. When you get down to a bigger points gap than the number of games remaining, then it gets tricky to see you catching somebody. It helps this is such a small League, as you get more "6 pointers" and a bit more possible variance than say in the English leagues. The percentages here look reasonable, at this stage of the season all fans get more and more pessimistic but we can't all be pessimistic and right. Ultimately it's a zero sum game. Ayr is probably going to finish third or fourth, with an outside and rapidly receding chance of second or fifth. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_&_T Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 This ultimately comes down to a title race between QP and Dundee, IMHO. The Dees were promoted in 2011/12, relegated in 2012/13, promoted in 2013/14, relegated in 2018/19, promoted in 2020-21, relegated in 2021/22. Queen's Park were last in the top-tier in the 1950s. Surely any neutral will be rooting for Queen's Park? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerthewitness Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, G_&_T said: Surely any neutral will be rooting for Queen's Park? Not me. QP are a horrible little club & I hope Dundee triumph. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnydun Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, G_&_T said: This ultimately comes down to a title race between QP and Dundee, IMHO. The Dees were promoted in 2011/12, relegated in 2012/13, promoted in 2013/14, relegated in 2018/19, promoted in 2020-21, relegated in 2021/22. Queen's Park were last in the top-tier in the 1950s. Surely any neutral will be rooting for Queen's Park? You have been parading this narrative for around a month now. Your Queens Park brown nosing is vomit inducing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arachnophile Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, G_&_T said: This ultimately comes down to a title race between QP and Dundee, IMHO. The Dees were promoted in 2011/12, relegated in 2012/13, promoted in 2013/14, relegated in 2018/19, promoted in 2020-21, relegated in 2021/22. Queen's Park were last in the top-tier in the 1950s. Surely any neutral will be rooting for Queen's Park? Form would have to favor Dundee. They clearly know how to get promoted. And relegated And promoted And relegated. Etc Etc Thank you 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_&_T Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 1 minute ago, johnnydun said: You have been parading this narrative for around a month now. Your Queens Park brown nosing is vomit inducing. I would love them to win the title with a controversial penalty in the last seconds of stoppage time, against you in the last game of the season. If it's at Hampden, I will be there...then on here to gloat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnydun Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 Just now, G_&_T said: I would love them to win the title with a controversial penalty in the last seconds of stoppage time, against you in the last game of the season. If it's at Hampden, I will be there...then on here to gloat. And if they don't and Dundee win by about 6 points you will be nowhere to be seen. Melt. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigmouth Strikes Again Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, johnnydun said: And if they don't and Dundee win by about 6 points you will be nowhere to be seen. Melt. He'll be nowhere to be seen whatever happens, full of shite. IMO. Edited April 7, 2023 by Bigmouth Strikes Again 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 Considering I've never noticed this poster before, I'm impressed how quickly he's became one of the most painfully tedious and pointless on the site. The only way he can get anyone to care about his posts is by pandering. Weird weegie git with nae team, imo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawB93 Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 38 minutes ago, RossBFaeDundee said: Considering I've never noticed this poster before, I'm impressed how quickly he's became one of the most painfully tedious and pointless on the site. The only way he can get anyone to care about his posts is by pandering. Weird weegie git with nae team, imo. Always highly, highly suspicious of “neutrals”. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 Said it multiple times before, but I think Partick Thistle are the best team in the league (outwith us). They'll be a bigger threat to the title than QP IMO. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 Just checked Oddschecker latest odds: Dundee 2/5 (in from 4/6) QP 7/2 (out from 6/4) Thistle 10/1 (in from 25/1) Ayr 10/1 (in from 14/1) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liam899 Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 All comes down to our next two games I think. Win them both and I think the league is done. However, very difficult game tomorrow. Definitely ours to lose now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spikethedee Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 I know you shouldn’t jinx things, but two wins for us by Tuesday will see us 8 clear of Patrick and 5 clear of QP with 4 to play. That, coupled with the fact we have a home game against Cove still to come would be the title wrapped up, I would dare to say… 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 One game at a time. We must beat Arbroath tomorrow. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb123! Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 QP deciding to have their shitfest spell of the season 4 months later than when everyone else did back in December/January time 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 Just now, rb123! said: QP deciding to have their shitfest spell of the season 4 months later than when everyone else did back in December/January time Fantastic - isn't it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Spikethedee said: I know you shouldn’t jinx things, but two wins for us by Tuesday will see us 8 clear of Patrick and 5 clear of QP with 4 to play. That, coupled with the fact we have a home game against Cove still to come would be the title wrapped up, I would dare to say… Not a chance are we winning both of those. It's not the Dundee way. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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