US Presidential Election 2024

[Granny Danger]

The most powerful country on the earth is an unmitigated clusterfuck.  Maybe AI wiping out the human race is not the worst thing that could happen.

 

[bigmarv]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

The most powerful country on the earth is an unmitigated clusterfuck.  Maybe AI wiping out the human race is not the worst thing that could happen.

 

Depends what the post Trump Republican Party looks like tbh. They are going down the toilet in their cult like backing of the crackpot. 
 

Yes, Biden is at least 10yr past his sell by date, I’d say its more like 15yr myself. 

That puts Trump 12yr past it with the pending criminal record and the other plentiful baggage beyond that of Biden. 
 

After 2012 Obama reelection, the Republicans commissioned a report on what they needed to do, they were starting down that road and then came Trump 2016. It all went right out the window. Right back to trickle down tax policy, heavy military spending and the culture wars. You can add the normalisation of racism etc. that Trump brought and plenty were happy to adopt. 
 

Edited November 4, 2023 by bigmarv

[Freedom Farter]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/2024-republican-contender-desantis-facilitates-shipment-weapons-ammunition-2023-10-26/

DeSantis has used state funds to buy body armour, helmets, drones, guns and ammunition then sent it all to Israel on private planes. The Israelis seem a bit bemused, going by the quotes in the article, at having these gifts sent to them which they neither requested nor needed. Who knows what the folk of Florida think about their budget being spent on that.

It was probably a man like this who DeSantis just siphoned off a load of public money to:

https://archive.ph/kyJ4d

Edited November 5, 2023 by Freedom Farter

[The Black Flag]

5 minutes ago, Freedom Farter said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/2024-republican-contender-desantis-facilitates-shipment-weapons-ammunition-2023-10-26/

DeSantis has used state funds to buy body armour, helmets, drones, guns and ammunition then sent it all to Israel on private planes. The Israelis seem a bit bemused, going by the quotes in the article, at having these gifts sent to them which they neither requested nor needed. Who knows what the folk of Florida think about their budget being spent on that.

''Where's Israel, is that near France?''

 

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, Freedom Farter said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/2024-republican-contender-desantis-facilitates-shipment-weapons-ammunition-2023-10-26/

DeSantis has used state funds to buy body armour, helmets, drones, guns and ammunition then sent it all to Israel on private planes. The Israelis seem a bit bemused, going by the quotes in the article, at having these gifts sent to them which they neither requested nor needed. Who knows what the folk of Florida think about their budget being spent on that.

It was probably a man like this who DeSantis just siphoned off a load of public money to:

https://archive.ph/kyJ4d

Before Florida Man, The Sunshine State used to have the stereotype of being the retirement home for elderly Jews, so this might very well be a tragic attempt to buy support.

Plus, it'll get it right up the woke mob who generally don't seem to like indiscriminate murder, the pussies.

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/2024-republican-contender-desantis-facilitates-shipment-weapons-ammunition-2023-10-26/

DeSantis has used state funds to buy body armour, helmets, drones, guns and ammunition then sent it all to Israel on private planes. The Israelis seem a bit bemused, going by the quotes in the article, at having these gifts sent to them which they neither requested nor needed. Who knows what the folk of Florida think about their budget being spent on that.

It was probably a man like this who DeSantis just siphoned off a load of public money to:

https://archive.ph/kyJ4d

Would that be appropriate use of state funds?  

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, BFTD said:

Before Florida Man, The Sunshine State used to have the stereotype of being the retirement home for elderly Jews, so this might very well be a tragic attempt to buy support....

"...it was like I died and woke up in Jew heaven" being a particularly memorable description of Miami from Goodfellas. Traditionally they were Democrat voters though. Probably aimed more at Bible Belt Evangelicals and the presidential race.

[Granny Danger]

Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html

Worrying for the U.S. and the rest of us.

 

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Would that be appropriate use of state funds?  

Of course not, which is why Ronnie is conducting a war on the Sunshine Laws:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/desantis-florida-public-records-transparency-rcna91364

44 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html

Worrying for the U.S. and the rest of us.

 

More unfortunate /worrying is the fact this particular polling group uses good methodology and is pretty accurate. The continued outlandish statements about a poor economy (false), migrant invasions (mostly false), the threats from Palestinian refugees (puffed up bullshit, the U.S. barely has allowed 20,000 or so in the last 20 years, etc from Rethuglican pols is working for them. Get ready for Trump v2.0, with a mentally doddering Trump being stewarded by a bunch of wannabe fascists and Christian Nationalists.

[bigmarv]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Of course not, which is why Ronnie is conducting a war on the Sunshine Laws:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/desantis-florida-public-records-transparency-rcna91364

More unfortunate /worrying is the fact this particular polling group uses good methodology and is pretty accurate. The continued outlandish statements about a poor economy (false), migrant invasions (mostly false), the threats from Palestinian refugees (puffed up bullshit, the U.S. barely has allowed 20,000 or so in the last 20 years, etc from Rethuglican pols is working for them. Get ready for Trump v2.0, with a mentally doddering Trump being stewarded by a bunch of wannabe fascists and Christian Nationalists.

The Democrats simply cannot continue with Biden. He has to step aside next spring/summer. 

Trump will be a convicted criminal this time next year. All indications are that most Republican voters don’t care.  Party of law and order right enough. 

[Dunning1874]

The same pollster has found that even Haley & De Santis are comfortably beating Biden in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

Who'd have thought that spending years doing absolutely nothing to appeal to the base who elected you in the first place would lead to them not voting for you?

[houston_bud]

On 06/11/2023 at 00:20, TxRover said:

More unfortunate /worrying is the fact this particular polling group uses good methodology and is pretty accurate. The continued outlandish statements about a poor economy (false), migrant invasions (mostly false), the threats from Palestinian refugees (puffed up bullshit, the U.S. barely has allowed 20,000 or so in the last 20 years, etc from Rethuglican pols is working for them. Get ready for Trump v2.0, with a mentally doddering Trump being stewarded by a bunch of wannabe fascists and Christian Nationalists.

Have I read this wrong or have they polled 3662 people across 6 states? Not saying this shouldn't concern the Democrats but it's not a great sample size. 

[Granny Danger]

On 05/11/2023 at 16:43, bigmarv said:

The Democrats simply cannot continue with Biden. He has to step aside next spring/summer. 

Trump will be a convicted criminal this time next year. All indications are that most Republican voters don’t care.  Party of law and order right enough. 

Let’s not forget that in the criminal cases he only needs one jury member to vote against conviction.

[TxRover]

43 minutes ago, houston_bud said:

Have I read this wrong or have they polled 3662 people across 6 states? Not saying this shouldn't concern the Democrats but it's not a great sample size. 

The average poll (National) in the U.S. is based upon between 500 and 1,000 people answering, State and Local polls can have significantly smaller sample sizes. The biggest problem was becoming getting people to answer the phone, especially given that pollsters generally had to use to use landlines (regulations on unsolicited calls), whose owners skew orders and righter. Now only 10% of the polling forms use strictly live phone calls, and many have moved to online opt-in or probability based panels. These methods bring their own problems, as does the increasingly popular address based sampling. Additionally, the accuracy of State/Local level polling tends to be significantly worse than National based polling, as the firms involved are often smaller and use older techniques and less expensive selection modes. Add to that the commonality of State/Local polls being most often commissioned by a candidate or party…

In this CBS Poll, the total responders was just over 4,000, with a final margin or error of 2.6%. One of the biggest takeaways from the cross tab data of this poll is that nearly 50% of the population over age 46 believe the biggest threat to the U.S. is “other people in the U.S.”…which translates to illegal immigration, anchor babies and refugee fears stoked by Trump’s Reich-wing. This compares to 20-25% of those younger. It also shows this view is 50% more prevalent in White voters than those of other backgrounds. You can also see that around 10% of the respondents are likely to not vote.

The 3,662 number comes, I believe, from discarding about 370 responses, changing the MoE from a  designed 2.1% to 2.6%.

Edited November 7, 2023 by TxRover

[bigmarv]

12 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Let’s not forget that in the criminal cases he only needs one jury member to vote against conviction.

its a fair point but I don’t see how prosecutors in four separate jurisdictions are going to bring a total of 91 counts against the fraudster if they were not pretty sure they were solid cases in all if not the majority of them. 
 

jury selection will be interesting tho. 

[carpetmonster]

Fun fact I've just found out is the general election has gone the same way as the Kentucky gubernatorial vote the last 5 cycles and Andy Beshear (D) has just pissed that; Dave Wasserman calling it at 6.30pm. 

[Bully Wee Villa]

What are these elections for? Are they midterm midterms?

[carpetmonster]

11 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

What are these elections for? Are they midterm midterms?

There's a few different ones going on; Gubernatorial in KY and MS, Rhode Island is sending a new congressman to Washington, Virginia are electing their state's House and Senate and there's about 200 odd city Mayor elections of which I *think* Philly is the biggest. 

Text updates here on the basis nobody's going to be arsed to sit and watch multiple hours of video coverage - https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/election-day-2023-live-results-analysis/?id=104679542 

[bigmarv]

Good night for the Democrats in the actual polls (vs opinion polling) in many places. 
 

Ohio (trump win by 8% in 2020) votes to protect reproductive rights by a decent margin. 
 

 

[TxRover]

11 hours ago, carpetmonster said:

Fun fact I've just found out is the general election has gone the same way as the Kentucky gubernatorial vote the last 5 cycles and Andy Beshear (D) has just pissed that; Dave Wasserman calling it at 6.30pm. 

This is the headline win for most viewers from yesterday. Yet another you can’t win the primary without Trump…and can’t win the general with him. However, stats like these are more for headlines…every time they get disproven they find another “trend”. The win in Virginia can be seen as the opposite result, as Virginia’s results tend to have been counterpredictive the last few cycles.

1 hour ago, bigmarv said:

Good night for the Democrats in the actual polls (vs opinion polling) in many places. 
 

Ohio (trump win by 8% in 2020) votes to protect reproductive rights by a decent margin. 

The Ohio result is a thumping win for what people want over what the far right want. A second bite of the cherry, with a carefully picked wording that was designed to confuse people, and they STILL got their asses handed to them. If the Republican Party is smart, they will work to keep abortion off the 2024 ballots, and the hilarious bit is Donald predicted this.

11 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

What are these elections for? Are they midterm midterms?

With 50 states and innumerable political subdivisions, we almost all have at least two elections per year…and each usually has a Primary and a General. The most widespread format is a May and November election, with “local”  ( theoretically, non-partisan) races being featured in the May election, on the theory that it insulated the School Board, Water Board, etc elections from politics. The actual result now is that the May elections tend to result in more extreme candidates winning due to turnout often being in the 5-10% range…until someone finally does something sooooooo stupid that everyone turns out to vote them out.

Just to give you an example…in my precinct, the following have been on the ballot in the last six years:

National: U.S. President, U.S. Senate and U.S House (would also potentially have any U.S. Constitutional Amendment).

State: Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller of Public Accounts, Commissioners of the General Land Office, Agriculture, the Railroad Commission, the Judges of the State Supreme Court plus State Appeals Court, and any and all Amendments to the Texas Constitution.

Local: County Commissioners, County Judges, County Justices of the Peace, County Boards, County Propositions, City Offices, City Proposals, School Board Trustees, School District Propositions and Precinct Chairpersons for either Republican or Democrat parties.