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Germany 2024


invergowrie arab

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1 hour ago, Empty It said:

What matches have people selected from the Euro portal?

Is it just complete pot luck that you might get a scotland game or is there games we're more likely to appear?


Unless I'm mistaken, as of right now we have an equal chance of every game (apart from the ones involving Germany's group).

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1 hour ago, Empty It said:

What matches have people selected from the Euro portal?

Is it just complete pot luck that you might get a scotland game or is there games we're more likely to appear?

I've picked a game a day from the North Rhine-Westphalia cities and parked myself there for the tourny.

 

Edited by ArabFC
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5 minutes ago, craigkillie said:


Unless I'm mistaken, as of right now we have an equal chance of every game (apart from the ones involving Germany's group).

If, if, the teams from pot 2 go into the groups as A2, B2 etc then you could gamble that way, but I'm not even sure that's how it works.

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12 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

It isn't, the positions are randomly allocated after the groups are drawn.

Aw really? Then it was really stupid of me to wait to see how the results affected our seeding and therefore which games to apply for 

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Just now, the snudge said:

Is it too early to know who benefits from the nation's league from us qualifying automatically?

Finland are now guaranteed a playoff spot as the best runner up from league B. They have an outside chance to qualify automatically, but most likely they’ll be in the playoffs. 
 

Of the other league B winners, Serbia look good to qualify directly, Israel have a 50/50 chance, Bosnia probably not. The next reserves to get into the playoffs are, in order of priority: Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, Republic of Ireland and Albania. Of those, Slovenia and Albania look good to qualify directly anyway. Ireland and Norway are out of the running to qualify directly. Ukraine and Iceland have an outside chance but playoffs more likely.


There’s also a chance of one of these teams getting into the league A playoffs. One of Wales and Croatia will definitely miss out on direct qualification and one of Poland or Czech Republic will probably miss out. That leaves two slots, although one of those may be needed by the Netherlands if they crash out in favour of Greece. 
 

If there’s only one spot left in league A, the first priority reserve is actually Estonia as league D winners.

 

However if there are two spots (i.e., if Netherlands do qualify directly), then one of the spots will be filled by a league B team.


We global only give Ireland a 0.5% chance to make the playoffs now whereas Norway is around 50/50. Slovenia are likely to qualify directly BUT if they miss out, they only have around a 1/3 chance of being in the playoffs.


Norway need three from:

 

1) Netherlands to qualify ahead of Greece

2) Poland AND Czech Republic to qualify over Albania (highly unlikely) 

3) Israel to qualify over Romania

4) Bosnia to qualify over Slovakia (highly unlikely)

5) Serbia hold onto their automatic place (almost certain) 

 

Ireland would need four of those to happen AND Slovenia to hold on to their spot. 

 

Ireland would need 

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Austria just beat Azerbaijan but only by 1-0 so they now have 16pts and a goal difference of +8 to our 15pts and a goal difference of +9 however they only have one game left, Estonia (A) whilst we have 2 games, Georgia (A) and Norway (H).

2 wins for us and nothing matters. We will definitely be the best runner up and therefore get a pot 2 spot for Euro 2024.

Assuming they beat Estonia they will finish on 19pts. Goal difference will be at least +9.......

4pts for us would se us finish on 19pts with a goal difference of at least +10! 

Interestingly they finish their campaign on November 16th, when we are in Georgia, so we will know the situation heading into the Norway game at Hampden assuming we haven't lost in Georgia. If for instance they have pumped Estonia we may need to beat Norway (even if we've won narrowly in Georgia) if we want the pot 2 spot. 

Caveat all this by saying Italy could also be a factor but they have to win at Wembley tomorrow. 

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Underrated point here but I’m kind of buzzing for the draw itself. Last time because of the unique hosting format we were guaranteed to be in the group that was played at Hampden and Wembley (and even at that we hadn’t officially qualified when the draw was made) so we couldn’t get properly hyped for it. Similarly we were “involved” in the draw for the Qatar World Cup but it wasn’t certain that we’d qualify and we ultimately didn’t.

 

Being in a proper draw for a proper tournament that we’ve qualified for using the traditional route is something that you’d need to be well into your thirties to remember happening for Scotland.

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Portugal must be a serious threat next summer. 

They are 5-0 up at half time in Bosnia as they continue to win every game in their group. 

Their front 4 tonight is Ronaldo, Leao, Felix and Fernandes which means that Bernardo Silva and Jota are on the bench alongside numerous other very good players. Their squad is nothing short of ridiculous. 

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7 minutes ago, Hendricks said:

Portugal must be a serious threat next summer. 

They are 5-0 up at half time in Bosnia as they continue to win every game in their group. 

Their front 4 tonight is Ronaldo, Leao, Felix and Fernandes which means that Bernardo Silva and Jota are on the bench alongside numerous other very good players. Their squad is nothing short of ridiculous. 

I went to Porto in between Seville and Lille and watched their game v Slovakia in a bar with a bunch of Portuguese guys who surprisingly were really downbeat and thought their team wasn't good enough to challenge England and France next year and they benefited from an easy group. They really aren't sold on Martinez either.

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Just now, Pie Of The Month said:

I went to Porto in between Seville and Lille and watched their game v Slovakia in a bar with a bunch of Portuguese guys who surprisingly were really downbeat and thought their team wasn't good enough to challenge England and France next year and they benefited from an easy group. They really aren't sold on Martinez either.

 

Interesting. And yes their group is probably pretty poor but 32 goals in 7 1/2 games! They have the firepower to cause anyone difficulties. 

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