Divisional Round

[Boo Khaki]

1 minute ago, Fuctifano said:

If he gets the pass off a quarter of a second earlier before his own lineman gets pushed into him it's a TD regardless of how open Diggs was. Very fine margins. 

As you said there were two (I thought three) drops from the WRs on deep balls plus the Cook dropped TD although that didn't hurt them. 

It came down more or less to what I thought it would, banged up D couldnt get enough stops. 

The worry is this is now a bit of a narrative about the Chiefs in the playoffs, fully expect a 4th win in a row vs them in the regular season next year but counts for nothing in the end. 

Bengals seem to be KC's kryptonite, bit like how the Chargers always used to slap the Colts silly when Peyton was the QB.

[Nightmare]

I’m so, so sick of this repulsive franchise getting to the AFC title game every single year.

f**k off.

[pozbaird]

Come on Baltimore. They’re even showing Taylor Swift shots after Pacheco TDs now. Things have also progressed to a shirtless Kelce brother downing Bud Light and being filmed.

Lamar Jackson, please bury these kunts.

[peasy23]

13 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

Gotta feel a bit for Josh Allen. Two great deep throws right on the money that would have blown this game open, and his WR made a dog's dinner of it both times. He was awful on that series after the Two Minute warning though. Trying to score the TD with two mins on the clock when KC was happy to give him the 1st Down underneath. At least make it easier for your K, take more time off the clock, and stop being greedy. Bit of a mental meltdown really.

Watched the second half today and that was my take too, but it was pretty much a clusterfuck all round for the Bills in the second half.

Going with a half fit punter came back to bite them on the arse big time, whoever decided to go with the fake punt should be buried in the big hole next door.

Diggs completely whiffing one of the deep shots was incredible, but the two throws after the two minute warning were unfathomable imo. Just keep getting 4 or 5 yards, take the clock down and make them burn their timeouts. Worst case is you have an easier FG and they have less time to try and win it in regulation if you score.

[lichtie23]

[Bully Wee Villa]

The Bills are going to waste the Allen Era. 

[Brummie Clyde]

His salary hit goes up a lot next season too.

[peasy23]

 

 

[Boo Khaki]

4 hours ago, peasy23 said:

 

 

Dolphins fans on Twitter also using that Allen performance to defend Tua from "check-down" accusations. I think both need to bear in mind had Diggs and Sherfield not dropped perfectly thrown deep balls that hit them in the hands, Allen's stats, completion graphics, and quite possibly the game outcome would look a lot different.

The Purdy stuff is daft, because it's not Purdy throwing check-downs, rather Shanahan's O and the players he's assembled to play in it is very much predicated on short, quick stuff and YAC. The 9'ers O in the 80's and early 90's was much the same, and I've never heard anyone say Joe Montana was check-down monkey or that Jerry Rice was a gadget player.

[Boo Khaki]

8 hours ago, peasy23 said:

Watched the second half today and that was my take too, but it was pretty much a clusterfuck all round for the Bills in the second half.

Going with a half fit punter came back to bite them on the arse big time, whoever decided to go with the fake punt should be buried in the big hole next door.

Diggs completely whiffing one of the deep shots was incredible, but the two throws after the two minute warning were unfathomable imo. Just keep getting 4 or 5 yards, take the clock down and make them burn their timeouts. Worst case is you have an easier FG and they have less time to try and win it in regulation if you score.

I don't blame Allen for trying to score a TD, but in reality, had the bills went up with 1:30 or so to play, you think KC would have just marched down the field and scored anyway. A more savvy coaching staff and QB would, I think, have taken the easy 1st's primarily just to eat the clock and ensure KC doesn't get another meaningful possession. It sounds conservative, but you are not playing to tie or not to lose, rather denying KC an opportunity while attempting to score a TD with as little time remaining as possible. Worst case scenario, you line up a chip-shot FG for your Kicker and it goes to overtime. I think in hindsight the Bills would probably do things a bit differently. The pass he just missed on after the Two Minute warning wasn't Allen's fault, but even had it been completed for the TD I think KC walks down the field, scores a TD, and wins the game regardless.

[peasy23]

5 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

I don't blame Allen for trying to score a TD, but in reality, had the bills went up with 1:30 or so to play, you think KC would have just marched down the field and scored anyway. A more savvy coaching staff and QB would, I think, have taken the easy 1st's primarily just to eat the clock and ensure KC doesn't get another meaningful possession. It sounds conservative, but you are not playing to tie or not to lose, rather denying KC an opportunity while attempting to score a TD with as little time remaining as possible. Worst case scenario, you line up a chip-shot FG for your Kicker and it goes to overtime. I think in hindsight the Bills would probably do things a bit differently. The pass he just missed on after the Two Minute warning wasn't Allen's fault, but even had it been completed for the TD I think KC walks down the field, scores a TD, and wins the game regardless.

That's my take too, just couldn't see the Bills D coming up with something to stop the Chiefs.

[peasy23]

27 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Dolphins fans on Twitter also using that Allen performance to defend Tua from "check-down" accusations. I think both need to bear in mind had Diggs and Sherfield not dropped perfectly thrown deep balls that hit them in the hands, Allen's stats, completion graphics, and quite possibly the game outcome would look a lot different.

The Purdy stuff is daft, because it's not Purdy throwing check-downs, rather Shanahan's O and the players he's assembled to play in it is very much predicated on short, quick stuff and YAC. The 9'ers O in the 80's and early 90's was much the same, and I've never heard anyone say Joe Montana was check-down monkey or that Jerry Rice was a gadget player.

But he's not throwing check downs, he had the highest average air yards per attempt in the whole league this year.

The amount of goal post shifting he gets is very strange. 

Before last night it was he hasn't come back to win in bad weather, so he did. Now it's "it was only 7 points, it's not that big a comeback."

"He can't win without Deebo." He did.

So now it's that he only succeeds because of the 49ers roster. On the game winning drive the two biggest completions went to those all-pro players *checks notes* Juaun Jennings and Chris Conley.

Did he play well on Saturday night? No. But when the chips were down he came up with 6/7 for 47 yards and 11 yards rushing himself in a game winning drive. He is getting more criticism for winning than the guy on the other team who threw 2 interceptions, 1 of which was a shocking throw which ended the game.

Edited January 23 by peasy23

[Boo Khaki]

They run a lot of WR screens, Digs and so on, so to the eyeball it looks like they are a "dink n dunk" team, but the main point is that plays where the ball is intended to get out quickly to the primary receiver are not "check downs" regardless of how deep the route is or whether the pass is beyond or behind the L.O.S. 

I think it's the ignorance of mistaking anything short for a "check-down" that annoys people. 

If you want to see a check-down merchant, go watch Herbert hitting Ekeler in the flat 6-10 times a game because everyone down the field is blanketed and the Chargers interior OL can't block for toffee.

Edited January 23 by Boo Khaki

[peasy23]

50 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

They run a lot of WR screens, Digs and so on, so to the eyeball it looks like they are a "dink n dunk" team, but the main point is that plays where the ball is intended to get out quickly to the primary receiver are not "check downs" regardless of how deep the route is or whether the pass is beyond or behind the L.O.S. 

I think it's the ignorance of mistaking anything short for a "check-down" that annoys people. 

If you want to see a check-down merchant, go watch Herbert hitting Ekeler in the flat 6-10 times a game because everyone down the field is blanketed and the Chargers interior OL can't block for toffee.

Purdy also gets hammered with the YAC stat, I didn't realise that everyone else's receivers sat down as soon as they caught the ball.

He supposedly could never be an MVP candidate because he doesn't elevate the players around him.

Aiyuk had a career best year, Kittle had over 1000 yards again, McCaffrey has over 500 yards receiving. Americans normally like an underdog story, but a lot of pundits in particular seem desperate for Purdy to fail. My own opinion is that because they talked up lots of QBs over the years who were first round picks that have amounted to very little, they can't have Mr. Irrelevant outperforming them.

 

 

Edited January 23 by peasy23

[Boo Khaki]

I don't think YAC is a reflection on Purdy at all, it's just that they have players who are great with the ball in their hands, so it makes sense to utilise that and scheme to take advantage of it.

FWIW, I'm not sceptical of Purdy at all. There are times where he looks like a young late round QB and you remember why he was Mr Irrelevant, but I don't think there's really any lingering doubt that he will be able to play QB in the NFL long-term. I don't think he has the talent, arm-strength, and intangibles to ever be a truly "elite" level QB, but he's clearly more than capable of playing at top 15 starter level and I see no reason why he shouldn't have a long career.

As far as "elevating" the team - All QB's are dependent on the talent around them, and of course performance will be better playing with better tools and protection, and will fall off playing on garbage teams. I said in another thread I've always felt genuinely top-tier QB's are worth about 4-6 wins a year just by themselves, but I don't think lack of an elite QB actually costs teams 4-6 wins because W/L is a team stat. My belief is more based on watching guys like Philip Rivers play on some utterly honking Chargers teams and still come up with a 5-6 win season, when comparatively those teams really didn't have much more in the way of talent than some of the 1-2 win teams down the years. The difference is the QB grinding out a few wins, whereas those no-hoper 1-2 win teams usually had garbage at QB as well as across the field. IMO Philip Rivers' best season was 2010, the year the Chargers had the #1 by yardage Offense and Defense but missed the playoffs due to all-time bad ST play. It's not the #1 stat that makes me consider it his best season, but the fact that he set career numbers while missing all of his top weapons for either the entire season or parts of it. He threw completed passes to something like 17-18 players across the season, which was an NFL record at the time. It was a great example of how a top QB in his prime really doesn't need elite weapons to do his thing, and that the best ones can play QB successfully without being surrounded by talent.

I think with Purdy he's perhaps not capable of "elevating" a team in that sense, in that if you forced him to QB a team with zero talent they would likely be a 3 or 4 win team, but that's not to say I think he holds a good team with talent like the 9'ers back. He's plenty good enough to take a team like that all the way.

I've mentioned before how I think Hurts is a bit fraudulent, and I think the same thing about him. Is he a straightforward garbage QB? No, absolutely not, but I don't think he's elite either, and I think he'll have a career that pretty much follows the pattern of the talent he's surrounded by, i.e., if the Eagles' talent atrophies naturally, I think Hurts' play will decline concurrently and he won't be able to overcome that and "elevate" a poor team.

As well as all the measurable stuff and being a "field general", I think one significant indication you are talking about a genuinely elite QB is that you never get to a serious point in the middle of their career where you think "This isn't the guy, and the team needs to move on from him". Fair enough when he's late 30's or something and visibly, obviously in decline, but for the most part you don't dump/walk away from these guys because any potential replacement is highly unlikely to be a significant improvement. There was never a point in PR's career where Chargers fans and media were of a mind that he needed to be replaced, the same with Big Ben, Peyton, Brady, Brees in N.O. etc etc. It's why I do not, never have, and never will consider Kurt Warner an elite QB, and also why I think he has no business being in the H.O.F. I had a soft-spot for the Rams in that era and was a huge fan of the Greatest Show etc, but I'm sorry, "elite" QB's don't have a run of garbage seasons slap, bang in the middle of their careers when they should be at their absolute peak, and get benched and given up on for rookies. It just doesn't happen. Could I see a time where both Hurts and Purdy's team and fans want to move on from them? Sure, but with Purdy at least it makes no sense while he's on a cheap deal, and I can only see that happening if they do give him a long-term deal, the talent around him declines, his play declines concurrently, and they feel it's a business decision to move him on and rebuild with a cheaper, younger option at QB. Likewise with Hurts, although I think that point in time in Philly might come sooner than people think.

Edited January 23 by Boo Khaki