General Election 2024 Predictions

[eindhovendee]

My educated guess based on nothing except 3 pints of Dizzy Blond followed by most of a bottle of Shiraz is this.

Independents  1
Plaid Cymru     4
Greens              3
Reform              1
DUP                    7
Sinn Fein           9
SNP                  32
Lib Dems        90
Tory                 99
Labour          403

If that doesn't add up to 649 then add or subtract from Labour.

Thank you.

 

[Lex]

SNP 30

Labour 400

Tories 170

Lib Dem 20

Plaid/DUP/SF/IND 27

Workers 1

Green 1

Reform 1

[Salvo Montalbano]

Corbyn, Farage to win their seats.

Reform to get 2, maybe 3.

Greens to get 2, maybe 3.

Lib Dems to get about 30.

Tories to get about 175.

SNP to get between 20 and 28.

About 350-400 Labour for an overall majority of about 150. 

Not sure if those numbers even remotely work and can't be arsed getting the calculator out.

[The DA]

On 03/07/2024 at 13:36, JS_FFC said:

Final prediction

 

 

UK wide

 

Labour 424 seats, 39% popular vote 

Tories 110 seats, 26% popular vote

Lib Dems 67 seats, 12% popular vote

SNP 22 seats, 3% popular vote

Greens 4 seats, 8% popular vote

Reform 2 seats, 11% popular vote

Others 21 seats, 1% popular vote

 

Labour majority of 198

 

Scotland only:

 

Labour 28 seats, 33% popular vote

SNP 22 seats, 31% popular vote

Lib Dems 5 seats, 9% popular vote

Tories 2 seats, 14% popular vote

Reform 0 seats, 6% popular vote 

Greens 0 seats, 3% popular vote

 

 

Specific Scotland predictions:

 

Tories hold on to the two rural border seats held by David Mundell and John Lamont. Dumfries & Galloway goes SNP as does all three of their North East seats

Lib Dems hold on to their current four seats (two of which are notionally SNP). They also gain Mid Dunbartonshire back from Amy Callaghan

SNP hold 18 of their current seats.

Labour hold Edinburgh south and make 27 gains, all from the SNP.

 

 

 

Labour: Edinburgh South. Glasgow North East. Rutherglen. Coatbridge & Bellshill. Glasgow North. Glasgow West. Glasgow South. Dunbartonshire West. Airdrie & Shotts. Glenrothes & Mid Fife. Glasgow East. Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy. Edinburgh East & Musselburgh. Midlothian. Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West. Paisley & Renfrewshire North. Paisley & Renfrewshire South. Hamilton & Clyde Valley. Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch. Glasgow South West. Bathgate & Linlithgow. East Kilbride & Strathhaven. Dunfermline & Dollar. East Renfrewshire. Livingston. East Lothian. Stirling & Strathallan. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock. (28)

 

SNP: Dundee Central. Kilmarnock & London. Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke. Edinburgh South West. Edinburgh North & Leith. Na h-Eileanan an Iar. Alloa & Grangemouth. Aberdeen North. Ayrshire Central. Falkirk. Ayrshire North & Arran. Arbroath & Broughty Ferry. Aberdeen South. Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber. Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey. Perth & Kinross-shire. Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire. Angus & Perthshire Glens. Aberdeen North & Moray East. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine. Gordon & Buchan. Dumfries & Galloway. (22). 

 

Lib Dem: Orkney & Shetland. Edinburgh West. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross. North East Fife. Mid Dunbartonshire. (5)

 

Tory: Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweedale (2)

 

 

 

Think the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories will all do slightly better overall than some predictions. The former two will benefit from the “supermajority” attack line whereas the Tories will squeeze Reform a bit especially after Boris Johnson’s late intervention.

 

Reform win only Clacton for Farage and Ashfield for 30p Lee. They come second in a bunch of seats but fail to win them due to the late squeeze.

 

Greens win Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and Herefordshire North.

 

Notable scalps: Thangam Debonnaire. Theresa Villiers. Jeremy Hunt. Jeremy Corbyn. Robert Jenrick. George Galloway. Liz Truss. Richard Tice. Jacob Rees-Mogg. Jonathan Gullis. Grant Shapps. Steve Baker. 

Do you really think Labour will take the Stirling seat from Smith?

[Billy Jean King]

I love how the SNP baaadd posters of all persuasions are bigging up their projected seats for the SNP so that when the results are declared and their seats are inevitable much less they can claim some sort of "super collapse" based on nothing other than their own over inflation compared to all known poll predictions. It's as predictable as it is sad.

[CambieBud]

As long as the Moray Eel is seen standing greetin at his count, I’ll be satisfied. The Scots Red Tories will claim independence is dead but lose all their gains at the next election after being trounced at the Scottish Parliament Elections in 2026.

[JS_FFC]

34 minutes ago, The DA said:

Do you really think Labour will take the Stirling seat from Smith?

Few hundred votes in it either way imo 

[Richey Edwards]

Good luck everybody.

[Cheese]

Reckon Labour might win.

[DrewDon]

Labour 411

Tories 131

Lib Dems 56

SNP 21

Reform 5

Greens 2

Just want to see how wrong I get it. 

[Dunning1874]

SNP to still reach 30 seats

Chris McEleny gets under 2% of the vote in Inverclyde and claims it's rigged

Labour to win their biggest majority ever (not a hot take) but with a lower vote share than 2019

Labour to lose to the Greens in Bristol Central (not really a hot take) and Thangam Debbonaire to burst into tears when it happens (also not a hot take but I'll find it as funny as any Tory losing)

[AyrshireTon]

1 minute ago, Dunning1874 said:

SNP to still reach 30 seats

Chris McEleny gets under 2% of the vote in Inverclyde and claims it's rigged

Labour to win their biggest majority ever (not a hot take) but with a lower vote share than 2019

Labour to lose to the Greens in Bristol Central (not really a hot take) and Thangam Debbonaire to burst into tears when it happens (also not a hot take but I'll find it as funny as any Tory losing)

My Twitter has been awash with McEleny posts of late even though I don't follow him or can even vote in Inverclyde. Felt obliged to post about "Red Tories" and "There is no such party as Scottish Labour" at every opportunity.

[Cheese]

Labour 410

Tories 131

Lib Dem 61

Reform 13

SNP 10

Is my guess.

[Bully Wee Villa]

On 12/06/2024 at 10:09, Bully Wee Villa said:

Final predictions unless I change them:

Labour 412

Tory 144

Lib Dem 35

SNP 30

DUP 8

(Sinn Fein

Plaid Cymru 4

Green Party E&W 2

Reform 2

Workers' Party 1

SDLP 1

Alliance 1

Independent - Jeremy Corbyn 1

(Speaker 1)

 

Labour majority 174, effective majority 183

 

 

So I got Labour bang on.

The rest, not so much...