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Next permanent manager of the Conservative and Unionist Party 2024


Who will be the next Tory leader?  

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With less than two weeks until polling day it looks to be a safe bet that Sunak will be out on his arse and the Tories will be looking for a new leader.

 

I will caveat that current polling points to the Conservatives losing at least half of the 365 seats they won five years ago and some polls think they could be reduced to a few dozen seats, so it's entirely possible that a lot of the would be candidates will be front runners in the queue at the dole office rather than the leadership election. The format of the leadership contest also means that the eventual result will depend heavily on the exact makeup of the parliamentary Conservative Party on 5th July.

 

At the moment I think you can split the Tories into three main groupings.

 

The biggest group is the one nationers. They are usually good at getting their man into the final two but then he usually loses. Jeremy Hunt in 2019 and Sunak in 2022 were both the one nations groups picks, although so was David Cameron and he won. These candidates usually support tight fiscal management and are more socially liberal than the other candidates. Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly and Penny Mordaunt would appear to be the most likely one nation candidates this time.

 

Next you have the first of the two right wing groups. The tax cutters. I think you'll get someone who served in a very senior position under Liz Truss will make the argument that Truss's economic policies were correct and would have worked if they'd been given the time to do so.

 

And then finally you'll have one or more of Patel/Braverman/Badenoch/Jenrick. Otherwise known as the "sink the boats and bring back hanging" faction.

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3 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Bit premature, this. 

We don't know how many of the names above will even be MPs after the election.

David Cameron certainly won’t be.

Disappointed that Liz Truss isn’t included; surely it’s time for a comeback.

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1 hour ago, scottsdad said:

Bit premature, this. 

We don't know how many of the names above will even be MPs after the election.

That's part of the fun! Who will survive and what will be left of them?

I guess we can rule out Call Me Dave as the leader does need to be a sitting MP.

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54 minutes ago, Clangers said:

Can’t the leader be sitting in the Lords?

In theory yes - it’s been done once before - I *think* it might have been Douglas-Hume who was appointed leader while in the Lords but a by-election was very swiftly arranged in a safe seat to get him into the Commons. 
 

My money’s on a lettuce, FWIW. 

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1 hour ago, Clangers said:

Can’t the leader be sitting in the Lords?

Apparently not. According to their own rules, they have to be a sitting MP.

Rules can be changed, of course.

53 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

Literally who the f**k cares? 

You forgotten about the hilarity of the Hague/Duncan Smith/Howard era?

Less amusing when they ended up running the government behind Call Me Dave, right enough.

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4 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

Before my time. 

Aw, you missed the quiet man turning up the volume.

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Obviously depends who holds onto their seats, but I reckon if they gerrymander the voting process like they did last time to prevent members voting, it'll be someone like Mordaunt.

If it goes to the members, it will be any old absolute maniac from Liz Truss to Matt Le Tissier.

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7 minutes ago, Clangers said:

If some of the worst predictions are correct the 1922 committee will need to be absolved as all sitting MP will have an official capacity! 

What do the Lib Dems do when they don't have enough MPs for a full frontbench team?

I'm assuming they actually bother to assign roles, of course. Not much point, really.

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Mordaunt once arranged a meeting of disabled people from all over the UK, some of whom had severe mobility issues, then dingyed it at the last minute for party business, so she'd make an excellent Conservative Party leader. Presumably her address would've involved asking when everyone was going to be getting back to work, so probably just as well in the end.

She's also got exactly the kind of buxom mumsy-ness that would have the boarding school elite drooling with thoughts of nanny, so she's perfect.

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