DC92
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Posts posted by DC92
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4 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:
And he's talking shite.
65How are they going to get 65?
Maybe one in the south, taking it to 64, but plenty of results have already come in and they're nowhere near anywhere else.
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4 minutes ago, GordonS said:
FWIW, the validation stage comes before counting, and that's when they do ballot box sampling. If they do a decent sample and the majority is more than about 2%, they'll know the result already.
Fair enough. I'd be surprised if they didn't scoop up the "Lib Dem" vote and increase their majority, but the glimmer of hope for the SNP is they're overperforming their GE2019 vote in the north-east and the Tories are underperforming, and they came surprisingly close to taking the equivalent Westminster seat then.
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9 minutes ago, Donathan said:
Tories were managing expectations but now the ballot boxes are open, they think they’re on to a winner. 7000 Lib Dem votes last time but this is expected to collapse with a straight transfer over to the Tories allowing them to hold the seat on an increased majority.They're only just starting the count now.
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31 minutes ago, Saltire said:
Good spot Gordie, it looks like the SNP picks up at round 6!!!!! Sorry It's late and I'm rushing.
26 minutes ago, GordonS said:Yeah, that's pretty extraordinary if the SNP could pick up a list seat in Glasgow. It might bring the majority back into sight.
You were right the first time. What you're projecting here is the theoretical MSP count if there were 5 constituencies and 7 list seats, in which case SNP would be entitled to 6/12 (50% of MSPs). In reality there are 16 seats, and the SNP will already have 9/16 (56%). There is no danger 44/45% list vote bumps that number up - you need well over 50%.
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5 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:
That's a bad one.
If you compare it to pre-Brexit figures it looks bad. If you compare it to the 2019 GE then it's a very decent hold for the SNP. It's a total oddball seat.
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11 minutes ago, eez-eh said:
Even if all the Labour and Lib Dem voters last time went Tory they’d still have been second.
I’d say it’s unlikely.
10 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:31 minutes ago, DC92 said:Aberdeenshire is going to f**k this up isn't it?No its not. SNP win comfortably
It went from 60% SNP in 2015 to 50% Tory in 2019.
The Holyrood boundaries are slightly more favourable for the SNP I think, but I wouldn't be massively surprised.
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1 minute ago, GordonS said:6 minutes ago, DC92 said:Aberdeenshire is going to f**k this up isn't it?
Journalists know nothing about election counts. If they did, and they schmoozed the right people, they'd be telling us the results of most seats in about an hour.
With the caveat that I don't know how far through they are, and I don't know whether "pleased" translates to "winning easily" or just "keeping it close", it's pretty rare to get a declaration without already having a decent idea of what the result looks like.
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Aberdeenshire is going to f**k this up isn't it?
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23 minutes ago, Kyle said:
New Scottish Parliament poll, ComRes 30 Apr - 4 May (changes vs 23 - 27 Apr):
SNP ~ 34% (-2) Con ~ 22% (nc) Lab ~ 19% (nc) Grn ~ 9% (-1) LD ~ 6% (+1) Alba ~ 2% (nc)
Constituency: SNP ~ 42% (-3) Con ~ 25% (+2) Lab ~ 22% (-1) LD ~ 8% (+1)
The polls are absolutely all over the place.
A good reminder that the "voting SNP on the list is a waste" idea is predicated on the flimsy assumption that they'll do exactly as well as last time in the constituencies. Polls are all over the place and, given the last few elections have all delivered somewhat surprising results, it wouldn't shock me if the one or two "outlier" polls are correct.
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I think not signing Logan is a sensible decision, really. He did well when he played but he's 33 and wasn't getting a game for a pretty ordinary Aberdeen team. I'd prefer we looked for someone younger and more athletic in the position.
What concerns me is that's not what we're doing, according to Neilson's quotes this morning. He wants to move Smith back to his "favoured" position, despite the fact he's clearly better in the middle than he is at full-back these days, and the gap is getting wider as he ages and slows down.
Signing Livi's third choice keeper after he looked pretty shite for us is a strange move as well. Hopefully Gordon doesn't get injured.
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2 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:
I don't think the SNP were underpredicted in 2011 i think there was a huge swing to SNP and by the last polls the numbers were about right
I don't think people were quite on top of what the polling numbers would do to the parliamentary arithmetic though
They got the upper end of their constituency polling but we're significantly underestimated on the list. They got 44% despite none of the polls putting them above 39%.
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32 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:
Given quite how high the bar for “Dissapointing signing” has been set at Hearts for the last few years I think you’re being a little harsh in HalkettWhat we signed was an up-and-coming young defender who was supposed to fill Christophe Berra's shoes and help us to get back to the top 3/4. He'd been linked with a Scotland call-up and a move to Rangers, so most thought it was a bit of a coup.
What we actually got was an error-prone near-ever-present in a terrible defence which conceded 52 goals in 30 games and got us relegated*. All he's proven this season is that he's reasonable enough for the Championship and isn't as bad as Popescu or Berra.
Given expectation vs. reality, he is one of the best examples I can think of when it comes to disappointing signings in recent years. I had no expectation of Elliott Frear or Ross Stewart being good so they haven't been as disappointing.
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13 minutes ago, Tony Wonder said:
Can't see it being his last game. Has played every week under Neilson, is one of the vice captains and has a year left on his deal.
He did take penalties for Livingston, but Boyce was on the pitch and has a great record from the spot for us.
I'd also expect him to be here next season, but him taking a penalty out of the blue seems odd otherwise. Unless he just fancied it because it's a meaningless game and he hasn't scored all season.
Neilson has shown he's quite happy to bin established first team regulars in the past, though, and he's been a disappointing signing. We're surely going to sign another centre-back or two, and Smith, Haring and Kingsley can all cover the position adequately. I wouldn't be massively surprised if he's been told he won't get a game next season and we're happy for him to find something else.
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3 minutes ago, Tony Wonder said:
Has anyone offered an explanation as to why Halkett took our penalty? Mental.
There are some rumours that it was his last game.
Did he not also take penalties for Livi? Definitely scored one against us in the 5-0.
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47 televised away games on the BBC this season and we finally put in a decent performance in the last one.
Unsurprisingly, the defence looks far more solid since Berra and Popescu were punted and Souttar and Logan came in. No goals conceded since the last international break. An absolute shiter that we've finally found some form and a reasonable system after already exiting the cup to fucking Brora.
That Raith try to play football is admirable and I've enjoyed the games against them this season (even the one we lost, sort of) but they might have benefitted from a more pragmatic approach this time given that 1) we destroyed them last time when they tried to play out from the back and 2) we are absolutely clueless at breaking teams down when they park the bus and let us have the ball, especially away from home. I also can't think of a player less suited to that style of football than Christophe Berra.
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56 minutes ago, raith_94 said:
Jambos jubilant in leaving shite boring league where nobody can keep up with the biggest budgets - to enter, without a hint of irony, a shite boring league where they can't keep up with the biggest budgets. Congratulations.
Weird that football fans will celebrate winning football matches despite the fact that football is pointless and death inevitable.
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8 hours ago, johnnydun said:
You will have no complaints missing 8 games last season then.
I'm pretty sure we reached the dizzy heights of 11th a couple of times between games 23 and 30 last season, and that you could pick periods of less than 8 games in which we registered 4 or more points than Hamilton. The same can't be said of Dundee or Raith making up 13 points, 10 points, or even 5 points on Hearts this season and no-one has been close to us since December despite us having been mostly rotten, so that conclusion doesn't follow I'm afraid.
We'll probably get properly relegated next season anyway, so you'll get another crack at finishing above us in a division table for the first time this century.
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54 minutes ago, johnnydun said:
Luckily there wasn't a full season or you could have been caught.
We've won 3 out of our last 9 and have extended our lead at the top in that time from 12 to 13 points.
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1 hour ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:
Based on their P&B followings I’d be happy to see any of them come up
Great bunch of lads
Even the Dunfermline fansThe best and funniest outcome is for our football friends/simps Inverness Caledonian Thistle to also be promoted.
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8 hours ago, Marshmallo said:
It should be whoever the goalkeeper is at the middling SPFL club I support.
This but unironically.
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54 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:
In our last 5 competitive matches, none of them against top sides, we've drawn 3 and lost 2.
If that's what comes from a perfect storm of favourable circumstances aligning, I don't want to think about what our record will be when the Gods are displeased.
You'd have to go back 7 games to get 3 draws. We beat the Czech Republic in our 5th to last game and Slovakia in the game before that.
Having said that, turning generally decent performances into goals and wins still seems to be a bit of an issue.
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The usual slow, boring shite for most of it, but ultimately we created plenty of chances and Ayr offered nothing.
45 points now. I wouldn't be surprised if no-one else reaches our current tally.
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On 27/02/2021 at 00:58, Lex said:
This thread man.
You wouldn’t have had to have been anything special to challenge Hearts, they’re rubbish.
You just had to be capable of sticking together a winning run of five or more games and we could have had a title race.
Shame.On 27/02/2021 at 01:13, AmericanFan said:Who says it still won't happen? How long has it been since Hearts actually picked up 3 points?
On average, since the turn of the century, you need a PPG of 1.79 to win this division, which is equivalent to 64/65 points in a 36 game season. The highest second-placed PPG was 2.00 (72 points) in 02/03.
Hearts are currently on 2.21 PPG, which is equivalent to around 80 points in a 36 game season. Only 3 teams have bettered that PPG (Falkirk and Rangers got 2.25 in 02/03 and 15/16, respectively, and we got 2.53 in 14/15). Even if we drop half of our points from now on, we'd finish on 2.00 PPG, which is enough to win this division 95% of the time.
It's been eye-bleeding shite, but the idea that a team picking up the points we are should be under pressure is fantasy stuff.
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37 minutes ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:
I do think Robbie takes some unjustified stick, along with the fair comments. Clearly he's got a massive budget advantage this year, but he also cruised the championship with the 3rd biggest budget last time we were in it, so he's clearly not completely tactically clueless.
Same with the Hearts are a poor team stuff we see after every game. Clear there's some strengthening to do ahead of the Premier league, but I don't think we're talking about a whole new squad to get in the top 6
32 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:Not a whole new squad, no. Craig Gordon's the best keeper in the country.
Boyce is good enough.
You don't have to be that good to get into the top six. Add a solid centre-half and a ball-winning midfielder and I'd be confident enough with the current squad.
Getting back to challenging for top 3/4 is a different matter and we'll need a fair bit more than that. Hopefully some of the new signings we made last month are the start of that.
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Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021
in The Politics Forum
Posted
What happened was the campaign actually started, and the ex-Labour voters, who "came back" to the party for the 2010 election (as well as the ex-Lib Dem voters who were now inclined towards them because of the coalition) realised that they had absolutely nothing to say, and were led by a laughably mediocre charisma-vacuum in Iain Gray. Labour wrongly assumed those votes would go to them with zero effort on their part, while the SNP ran on Salmond's (high) popularity and their (also popular) record in government, and hoovered them up.
Iain Gray running away and hiding from Sean Clerkin in a Subway in Glasgow was a highlight.