Diamonds are Forever

It's almost as if, rather than criticising, they were speaking from experience of watching our ground being turned into a Lego stadium and pointing out how rubbish that would be...

I've said this on the Airdrie thread but I think our position is slightly misleading at the moment as we've played 3 more home games than away, and there has been a huge disparity between our home and away form - 2nd place in home form but 10th in away, in reality I'd say we are the equivalent of 2 or 3 points worse off if all things were equal. 9 of our remaining 15 games are away so unless we improve on that we could be in bother. That said, we've won our last 2 away games in all competitions against Raith and QP which suggests we may have turned a corner slightly. Plus with the exception of Arbroath away all the away defeats have been very close games, it's not as if we were miles away from getting results. We also have 1 or 2 games in hand and pretty reliable home form, so as long as we improve our away form to a half decent level we should be fine. I think it will be very close for 4 or 5 teams though and be a pretty high safety bar in terms of points total.

I was thinking this. Normally I'd hate the idea as it would feel a bit weird, the whole thing of a cup final is that it's a 'day out' and a neutral venue. But it will be a weird atmosphere for a cup final anyway given the number of TNS fans that will be there, it won't really be neutral given the location of the two clubs wherever it's played, and if the whole aim of picking this venue is to increase attendance of Airdrie fans and neutrals then the best venue is at Airdrie for both those. The semi-finals aren't neutral either so it's hardly some major leap to not have the final at a home ground given the circumstances.

If you really want a long career in management then there's also a lot to be said for actually taking a few years at a lower level to gain experience and learn how to deal with adversity, rather than jumping straight up the leagues at the first offer and then having no experience to fall back on when things go wrong. It's why the majority of these youth coaches who stand-in for a few games and then get the job - MacLean, Robson, Hammell - get sacked a few months later, they've no experience of how to turn results around or deal with players who aren't happy. Clubs will be more willing to give you time if you have a CV which shows you can come through a bad run of form. Of course in reality if you are offered a fortune to move on then hardly anyone can say no, plus you also know that football can turn quickly and if you don't move when you are flavour of the month you may miss the boat. It would take a lot of self-belief from the manager to stay at a club like Airdrie if a bigger one came along. At the moment I think the only 'threat' is a bigger Championship club. There would be no point moving to a club around us in the league at the moment, a lower Premiership club would mean retiring and isn't that inviting anyway, and I don't think a Hearts or Aberdeen size club would take him yet. I could definitely see a Partick or Raith wanting him and he could still play a bit, but thankfully those clubs don't look like sacking the manager any time soon. Provided we stay up this year and give him a competitive budget next year I think he'll be here for another year.

About 20 minutes into the game last night I was confident we'd win because Easton was already starting to drop deep into his own half to get the ball. Whenever he did that for Airdrie he was totally ineffective, he doesn't have the attributes to drop deep and dictate play and get around the park. He's brilliant within 30 yards of the opposition goal in tight spaces but anywhere else on the pitch he slows things down, doesn't have the range of passing and he removes himself from the area where he is actually a threat. Raith's lack of a proper midfield base meant he kept going back to get the ball when really he should be staying higher and the ball getting played through to him. I watched Murray's interview on Open Goal and he said that sometimes you just need to let players like him go where they want, that might be true within the attacking third but just letting him roam round the pitch isn't going to get the best from him.

Watching the goal again the defending, or lack of, from the number 5 is incredible. Retreats to stand in front of his goalie to block his view, then walks about flat footed completely oblivious that a 6 foot 5 striker is standing in 5 yards of space to his left. His body language would make you think the ball was at the other end of the pitch, not bouncing around the box.

No doubt they are gambling and desperate but some of those gambles will likely pay off. I'm not too concerned but our aim is still to avoid relegation for the time being. The proportion of our remaining games that are away is probably the thing that worries me a bit but last night's result goes some way to convincing me that we can turn our home form into away wins.

I thought the half-time piece on the TV was really interesting and backs up what we've observed with McCabe. He came into the job with your typical 'philosophy' chat that all young managers have, and I remember his interview after being hammered 6-0 by Edinburgh when he was stubborn and seemed to refuse to accept that there was another side of the game that was just as important as the attractive football part. We then went on that really poor run contuining to lose stupid goals and something obviously clicked eventually that we had to be more adaptable and solid at the back. All the big scorelines got the headlines after that but it was games like beating Alloa 1-0 away and beating Falkirk and Accies 1-0 in play-off ties that showed how much we'd improved defensively. It was that which got us into the play-offs and promoted. We currently have the 2nd best defence in the league and have just conceded 1 goal in 5 games to Raith twice, ICT, St Johnstone and Partick which was unimaginable a year ago. All that while still trying to play an attractive style of football where possible and with pretty limited options in attacking areas. Young managers with 'philosophies' appear all the time but virtually none of them last because they don't accept that you can't always play like that, and that you have to be able to be a strong defensive unit too. I think what gives McCabe a real chance in the game is that he clearly has come to realise this. Things could have turned out differently if he'd kept being stubborn after that Edinburgh game but he began to mix his idealism with realism and it's been great to see him evolve over the last season. I still think our league position isn't as comfortable as it suggests, we have a lot of away games and it seems virtually everyone below us is making changes/improvements apart from Arbroath. If we can keep this run going for a few more games we should be fine, in some respects a quiet 7th place finish may be better than making a late burst for the play-offs and finishing 4th because it means he'll be here next season!

As dreadful as that would be, it would be a shame if we get to a final and then it has the atmosphere of a League 1 game against Montrose. A final against Falkirk would be a big crowd (as I'm sure they'd tell us...) and another good payday.

I think that's part of it. But I also don't think they were as good as results appeared early on. In the opening game of the season they were 2 goals down with 7 minutes to go. Twice against QP (who have generally been poor) they've scored twice in the last few minutes to grab wins from defeats. There was the ICT turnaround too and a few other late goals to grab points like Ayr and Arbroath, when by all accounts they weren't very good. I know a goal is a goal regardless of what time it's scored and it shows good character etc etc, but the reality is it would not have taken a huge change in events for Raith to have been sitting quite a lot of points worse off before their recent poor run. Numerous late turnarounds of that nature weren't going to last forever and in fairness anytime I looked on here a lot more Raith fans were saying that. The best stat to show that is that Raith have won 13 games, every one of them by a 1 goal margin. That doesn't suggest to me they were playing great and then collapsed, it suggests that they were doing enough thanks to individual brilliance and that now that's dried up. My opinion of Raith is probably a bit skewed because against us so far they've been poor. I feel like in lots of areas of the pitch they are an average Championship side, but in Easton and Vaughan have a couple of players who can win matches on their own so when they are on form they'll get results. But as you say teams are obviously now finding ways to keep those players quiet which is affecting results. I've probably said a few times on here that Murray's biggest weakness was tactics, it's generally Plan A, or Plan B which is chuck every attacker on the pitch and see what happens.

In fairness you've made that sound worse than it is. For example in 2018 Falkirk finished 8th on 47 points, but they were 17 points ahead of 9th. The actual 8th place total is irrelevant, what's relevant is the minimum points total that was required to finish 8th. Which was 32, 36, 39, 31 and 39. So 35 on average. That said, I don't disagree with your estimate of 40 points being the safety line, if not higher. You can make a case for virtually every side from 4th to 9th having a decent end to the season, whether that's through current form like Morton or Airdrie, new managers/signings like ICT, Ayr and even QP, and then players returning from injury like Dunfermline. If Arbroath tail off that will also put the total up as teams will be getting 4 or 6 'easy' points. To pluck a number out the air I'd go 42 points will be needed.

Who was at fault for the defensive line is a separate issue I'd argue. If Watson was as far behind as the linesman's (who should be in line with the deepest defender) positioning suggests then it's Watson at fault for that part. But regardless McCabe clearly didn't realise how deep Watson was, he just saw Lawless ahead of Hancock and assumed offside. You can't just stand with your arm up when you can't see across the whole line. And even if you can you should still be chasing back given the standard of officials.

In the Arbroath game we scored a perfectly good goal at 0-0 which was disallowed which would have totally changed the game, that doesn't excuse losing 4 goals afterwards but it was still unlucky and given how we perform when we score first I think we'd have got something from it. It's still another month until an away league game (depending on rearranged games) so hopefully we have more players back then too. We do seem a bit more solid and streetwise at the moment so hopefully that changes our fortunes a bit away from home.

McCabe has generally been great at centre-back but every now and then you see that isn't his natural position. Standing with his hand up for offside and not bothering to run back because he's so confident it's offside, when he has no idea that Watson is behind him playing everyone onside, is schoolboy stuff. Even if you're certain it's offside you have to go back with the man, he would have been in a position to win the rebound if he'd tracked back. On the game it's probably a decent point. Partick will finish 2nd at worst I think so it's an encouraging performance to go toe to toe against them. As I said in the other thread, it's clear that at home we'll give everyone a game, it's how many points we can start taking away from home which will decide how high up the league we finish.

Been a very enjoyable few weeks playing some good sides at home and getting good results against all of them. It's clear that at home we are a match for anyone. Looking ahead, the next challenge for this team is to improve our away form. We are 2nd in the league on home form, but 10th on away form. We only have 6 home games left compared to 9 away and our next league game is also a home game to Ayr - so 9 of our last 14 games are away from home. Therefore it's going to be a long slog to May if we don't improve on our away form, which so far has been dreadful. I'm confident that we'll continue to win or draw our home games which alone should be enough to avoid 9th or 10th. But if we want to look any higher we'll need to start beating teams around us away from home.

Not that it affects your point really, but Transfers Scotland's 'source' for that will have been skimming every club thread on here and seeing fans post about him being a potential signing. I wouldn't pay much attention to that.

Realistically neither of McCabe and Fordyce would keep playing if they moved to a Premiership club, so an upward move out the league means retirement. As you say I can't see them doing that yet, therefore a move to another Championship club would be the only option for them if they wanted to keep playing whilst managing. I can't see Goodwin, Doolan or Murray being sacked anytime soon and moving to anyone else would be idiotic at this point. I think the best case scenario for both parties is that we consolidate in the league this year, and then manage to push on next year and challenge for play-offs (I know we are currently 4th but we aren't that many points off the bottom and I think everyone's priority is to stay in the league). I think 3 years of steady progression with limited resources would see him get some decent job offers in the Premiership or down south and he'd move on. By that time he'd be almost 33 and nearing retirement anyway. That's assuming that this season and next keeps going well which you never know, although ironically the best chance of him staying for a while is probably if results take a turn for the worse.

I get what you're saying but this is the same St Johnstone who appointed Steven MacLean who had precisely zero management experience at first team level. Same with Robson at Aberdeen, with Naismith at Hearts, Hammell at Motherwell, and that's just the last 2 years. Numerous more guys who have been given jobs with no criteria other than 'played for the club' and some vague 'highly thought of' nonsense due to taking a youth team. Or being the beneficiary of a new manager bounce when standing in for a few games. If all of the above can get those jobs it's bizarre that someone who has actually got a CV (albeit quite short) with some achievements on it is seen as a risk. That said, I don't disagree with you that that is how clubs would view it, but it just seems weird to me.

Definitely, the £24k isn't actually a net gain if the game is moved to a Monday night. I think we'd be financially better off without the TV money if we played at 3pm on a Saturday, plus you'd have a better atmosphere. Like you I'd much rather have a normal kick-off time.

I know BBC are doing their best to create a Darvel storyline from somewhere but showing that game would be a step too far. At home then definitely it would be worth showing - I'd fancy Bonnyrigg to beat Barcelona on that field nevermind Aberdeen, however on something resembling an even playing surface like Pittodrie they'll be comfortably beaten in the dullest game imaginable. As a neutral it's the last game I'd watch out of those ties, I'd have Cove or Brora away to Killie ahead of it.

If I had to guess we'll have between 2-3k and will have the main stand. Harder to say with Hearts and depends a lot on whether we are the Friday night game but Hearts will bring 4-5k I think if it's the Saturday or Sunday.

Hearts will bring way more than that. Maybe less if it's the Friday night game, or just a TV game in general, but they'll need the 3 stands.

Great draw I think. Outside chance of an upset, will be near enough a sell-out and potentially a TV game too.

The turnover this season must be huge compared with last season. Our average attendances (including away fans) is 50% higher than last season and you'd hope that will increase more as the season reaches it's climax and teams have things to play for. We were also knocked out in every cup at the first stage last season. Got to last 16 of League Cup this year, at worst semi-final of Challenge Cup and at worst 5th round of Scottish Cup. Not just the prize money but also more games with decent crowds like yesterday. You can add whatever we got for Devenny into that mix too. The 2 home play-off games must have been a great boost to the club last year as it was a combined 7,000 fans over the 2 games which is all money to the club, that probably made up for all the cup exits. Of course we could still have play-offs this year too. But even if you ignore the cup performances and just look at our gates being 50% higher (with more expensive tickets too) you wonder whether our wage bill has increased by a similar amount. Seems unlikely as we've kept basically the same squad if you switch Smith's wage for Todorov. They will all have got salary and bonus increases obviously but I don't imagine by that extent, certainly not most of them. The conclusion is stating the obvious but it's so important we stay up this year as from the outside things must be looking much better financially and that may allow us to build more next season. It's good that the extra income isn't from some fluke cup draw at Celtic Park either (although that would be welcome) it's all been driven by performances on the park.

I know it's hard to always know in advance what games will be shocks or exciting games, but as you say the Airdrie, Partick and Raith games were all games which everyone knew would be close games and likely 'shocks'. They would all have been good games to watch as extended highlights. The way they always seem to prioritise 'all Premiership ties' as if this is an exciting prospect is really frustrating. We see these literally every other week of the season, I can't think of a less interesting game to watch as a neutral than Killie v Dundee. That's nothing against them, same applies for showing an all Championship or League 1 tie, the whole interest of a cup is seeing games you wouldn't normally see, seeing how different levels compare and seeing storylines created. I can see Killie v Dundee 4 times a season already. I'm not sure whether they genuinely think it's more interesting to watch, or whether it's just the easier and cheap option for everyone - camera infrastructure already there, commentators/pundits already know both teams etc. On top of that, showing extended highlights of the games which have already been live on BBC is unnecessary, in today's world everyone who wanted to watch that has either been at the game or recorded it and watched it back. They aren't waiting until 10.30 to watch it.