Fraser Fyvie Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Matches where there are big favourites there is value on the draw. So if I look out for all games with low prices on the big favourite, ad back the draw in all those games should lead to a small profit long term? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No. Sometimes big favourites are worth betting on to win. If they are worth opposing there will be value in the draw nearly every time. Look at Chelsea v Fulham, Arsenal v Wolves, Liverpool v Blackburn and West Brom v Man City just the past few days. Prices for these four were roughly 1/3, 1/4, 1/4 and 1/2 respectively. None of these teams won, but also none of them lost. All four games were draws. I layed Arsenal and Liverpool, and also backed the draw. I was a Manchester City backer; sadly you can't get them all correct. You're looking for a strategy that you can use without any thought or knowledge of the teams. I am aware of a couple of such strategies, but I wouldn't make them public. If you think that backing the draw when the favourite is a certain price or lower will yield a long-term profit, then it is easy to back test this over several years worth of results. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Right that makes sense. I'm guessing you wouldn't pm me one of those strategies justto help me get started. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrRight Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 ... you're asking him to PM you the strategy that makes money without any prior knowledge to "get you started"? I'm sure he doesn't mind people picking his brain if you have ideas of your own but that's a bit too far to ask him to give you free money more or less. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Indeed. There are some things that I wouldn't even tell my granny let alone put in the public domain. Over the years I've noticed a couple of very small specific things, where basically if X, Y and Z are all true, then you can bet on A, B and C and make money. Nothing ever stays the same for that long, but if you are betting full-time, then some things become apparent. A good way to get started, particularly if you don't have any/many online betting accounts, is to take advantage of the bonus offers for new accounts, and place arbs in order to roll over the required stakes so that there in no risk of losing. You can then arb properly for a short while before the bookmakers are onto you. I made probably around £150,000-£200,000 from 2003-2006 by arbing and taking advantage of account opening offers and monthly online casino bonuses, which gave me the freedom to bet more seriously. The online casino bonus loophole has largely closed now, but you can still make money arbing if you know how. Bookmakers clamp down on it far more rapidly than they used to though. Sign up to one of the arb alert services ( http://rebelbetting.com is probably the best one) and you're in business. With the new account bonuses and a few arbs placed (placing "middles" on American sports or rugby handicap markets can see you hit the jackpot too, look it up) you could easily make £2,000 in a month or two, even if you were only starting off with maybe £200-£300. Timing it right is important. The best bookmaker offers every year tend to be during the week of the Cheltenham Festival. I think Ladbrokes last year for example were doing bet £100 and get a £200 free bet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 (edited) No problem blue I understand, knew it was a long shot Just looking at draw odds and trying to look for patterns until the end of the season (any leagues you would advise in particular?) and saw a couple of the type of games we were talking about; where there is a pretty big favourite, but worth opposing. Rangers vs Motherwell2/7 7/2 7/1 Liverpool vs Newcastle4/7 14/5 5/1 So ive picked out a couple of potential matches to bet on, are these good examples of games where the draw is good value, do you think those draw odds are value? (those are ladbrokes prices, i could shop around for better ones) Don't really know where to start but im willing to put in the effort, just need a hand in terms of the sort of stuff i should be looking at when finding patterns. Edit: just worked out with betfair prices, any 1 draw out of those 2 matches and Chelsea v Aston Villa will bring a profit Edited December 29, 2011 by Akpo Sodje 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanny paddery Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 No problem blue I understand, knew it was a long shot Just looking at draw odds and trying to look for patterns until the end of the season (any leagues you would advise in particular?) and saw a couple of the type of games we were talking about; where there is a pretty big favourite, but worth opposing. Rangers vs Motherwell2/7 7/2 7/1 Liverpool vs Newcastle4/7 14/5 5/1 So ive picked out a couple of potential matches to bet on, are these good examples of games where the draw is good value, do you think those draw odds are value? (those are ladbrokes prices, i could shop around for better ones) Don't really know where to start but im willing to put in the effort, just need a hand in terms of the sort of stuff i should be looking at when finding patterns. You can get the draw at 5/1 and 3/1 for those 2 games 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You can get the draw at 5/1 and 3/1 for those 2 games Yeh your right i was just comparing bookies and betfair seems to have way better prices, 5.7 for Liv/New who has 5/1? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 http://www.oddschecker.com/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 According to oddschecker 12/1 (from various) is better than 69/5 from betfair 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Where does it say that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Where does it say that? For QPR against Arsenal. 12 is in bold to show best prices, 69/5 is not bold. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Just looking at draw odds and trying to look for patterns until the end of the season (any leagues you would advise in particular?) and saw a couple of the type of games we were talking about; where there is a pretty big favourite, but worth opposing. Rangers vs Motherwell2/7 7/2 7/1 Liverpool vs Newcastle4/7 14/5 5/1 So ive picked out a couple of potential matches to bet on, are these good examples of games where the draw is good value, do you think those draw odds are value? (those are ladbrokes prices, i could shop around for better ones) Don't really know where to start but im willing to put in the effort, just need a hand in terms of the sort of stuff i should be looking at when finding patterns. Edit: just worked out with betfair prices, any 1 draw out of those 2 matches and Chelsea v Aston Villa will bring a profit Generally, the Championship is good for draws. There are certain teams every season who draw as many as 19 or 20 games out of 46, yet you can still back them to draw @ 3.3 and bigger every game. You can get teams like that in any league, and it's usually the ones who are low-scoring, both in terms of scoring goals and conceding them. I don't follow any leagues other than the four English leagues down to League Two, so can't comment on the others. If you'd backed Liverpool to draw every time at home, you'd be massively in front this season. Looking at how they play, they are struggling to score goals against teams who come and sit with ten men behind the ball. I see no reason why this would change, so if you backed Liverpool to draw at home every time from now to the end of the season you would (probably) show a profit. Newcastle certainly have a chance to keep Liverpool at bay, so a draw there isn't the worst bet. I don't have a clue about Rangers v Motherwell. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Generally, the Championship is good for draws. There are certain teams every season who draw as many as 19 or 20 games out of 46, yet you can still back them to draw @ 3.3 and bigger every game. You can get teams like that in any league, and it's usually the ones who are low-scoring, both in terms of scoring goals and conceding them. I don't follow any leagues other than the four English leagues down to League Two, so can't comment on the others. If you'd backed Liverpool to draw every time at home, you'd be massively in front this season. Looking at how they play, they are struggling to score goals against teams who come and sit with ten men behind the ball. I see no reason why this would change, so if you backed Liverpool to draw at home every time from now to the end of the season you would (probably) show a profit. Newcastle certainly have a chance to keep Liverpool at bay, so a draw there isn't the worst bet. I don't have a clue about Rangers v Motherwell. Okay so from now until the end of the season its not about betting for me but for expanding my knowledge and spotting potential profit places for next season, when i will turn 18. Would you recommend I look at all types of odds and see how they change in the lead up to games and in play will i learn much from that for next season? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 For QPR against Arsenal. 12 is in bold to show best prices, 69/5 is not bold. Maybe something to do with the commissions from the exchanges not being factored in. I'm not 100% sure on that though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Indeed. There are some things that I wouldn't even tell my granny let alone put in the public domain. Over the years I've noticed a couple of very small specific things, where basically if X, Y and Z are all true, then you can bet on A, B and C and make money. Nothing ever stays the same for that long, but if you are betting full-time, then some things become apparent. A good way to get started, particularly if you don't have any/many online betting accounts, is to take advantage of the bonus offers for new accounts, and place arbs in order to roll over the required stakes so that there in no risk of losing. You can then arb properly for a short while before the bookmakers are onto you. I made probably around £150,000-£200,000 from 2003-2006 by arbing and taking advantage of account opening offers and monthly online casino bonuses, which gave me the freedom to bet more seriously. The online casino bonus loophole has largely closed now, but you can still make money arbing if you know how. Bookmakers clamp down on it far more rapidly than they used to though. Sign up to one of the arb alert services ( http://rebelbetting.com is probably the best one) and you're in business. With the new account bonuses and a few arbs placed (placing "middles" on American sports or rugby handicap markets can see you hit the jackpot too, look it up) you could easily make £2,000 in a month or two, even if you were only starting off with maybe £200-£300. Timing it right is important. The best bookmaker offers every year tend to be during the week of the Cheltenham Festival. I think Ladbrokes last year for example were doing bet £100 and get a £200 free bet. Ok I'm arbing with Mathbet but most bookies need me to verify my age before I can bet. Are there any ways around this you know of? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Being 18. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No Can Do. Also can anyone post all the bookies that dont require age verification? Only ladbrokes so far I have found. Will Hill, PaddyPower, Bet365 all wont let me bet before. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordieBoy80 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Not being a regular gambler I'm not too sure on something and apologies if it's already been asked, I've put on an anytime scorer accumulator and one of my picks hasn't been selected, is this the same as postponed games or is my bet screwed already ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Same as a postponed game. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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