May 2011 Election

[renton]

And folk actually turning out to vote. Will Labour get their vote out?

I suspect the labour vote will harden up in the central belt, but that won't be enough to win them a majority. The Lib Dems should hold onto any seat they can wheel Ming Campbell or Charles Kennedy out into. They are still popular enough to overcome whatever opprobrium is heaped onto them by their party's actions at westminster. Otherwise their vote will certainly collapse. The SNP are better placed to take advantage of that collapse than labour and that's going to be important. I also think the greens could, if they play it right, take on some of the Lib dem votes.

edited to add: XBL, that's some amount of spin, the fact would remain that if those numbers represent what actually happens on election day, that for the first time since it's ressurection, the Scottish electorate ahd chosen a majority government over coalition, it would be a huge blow for the SNP

[xbl]

edited to add: XBL, that's some amount of spin, the fact would remain that if those numbers represent what actually happens on election day, that for the first time since it's ressurection, the Scottish electorate ahd chosen a majority government over coalition, it would be a huge blow for the SNP

It is, but I have said it would be disappointing for the SNP. The fact is though that at the last election, the Parties of Union said that the SNP only got their votes due to being a protest against Labour and a one time thing. Four years on, and their numbers have held steady, despite everything that has been thrown at them. It looks like they've increased their core support, and they've shown they can govern, so thats a good thing. I'm not debating that it would be a disappointment though, a big one. Not quite at the level of "sickener" though. It was only a few years ago when people were talking about the Lib Dems becoming the second party...

[Reynard]

It is, but I have said it would be disappointing for the SNP. The fact is though that at the last election, the Parties of Union said that the SNP only got their votes due to being a protest against Labour and a one time thing. Four years on, and their numbers have held steady, despite everything that has been thrown at them. It looks like they've increased their core support, and they've shown they can govern, so thats a good thing. I'm not debating that it would be a disappointment though, a big one. Not quite at the level of "sickener" though. It was only a few years ago when people were talking about the Lib Dems becoming the second party...

If this came to pass then it would show that no matter how a "government" is doing at Holyrood, the voter will vote on what is happening elsewhere(Westminster). Which renders the SP no higher up the voters list of priorities than their local councils. They'd be voting on what is happening at UK level. It doesn't quite show up too well in terms of the SP operating in it's own wee separate bubble up here. We'd be placing MSPs in there as a result of what is happening nationally.

[ICTChris]

'Sickener' is an entirely accurate description of what a Labour majority in May would be for the SNP. 'Kick in the bollocks' is another one. The SNP government has done some things wrong, it can claim some successes but to go from an SNP minority government to a Labour majority, the first ever majority in the Scottish Parliament would be classed as a large electoral failure by the SNP. The really sickening thing about it for the SNP is that they haven't been a falling-over-the-place, John Major-style disaster of a government which, as said above by Reynard, suggests that the SNP will only get a foothold in circumstances set by Westminster. If this result came to pass, what would the SNPs stategy be for returning to power in Holyrood, let alone winning the argument and referendum on independence?

I don't think this will happen though, a Labour minority government is the most likely outcome.

An interesting battleground will be in the Lib Dem heartlands of the North of Scotland - how will voters in those areas judge the Lib Dems for joining the coalition? Also, if people do desert the Liberals, where will they go? Looking at the HIghland constituencies, the SNP finished runner up in every constituency the Liberals won in 2007, could they pick up some of these? Of course, those who vote Liberal may not want to switch to the SNP and many of the MSPs in these areas have a strong personal vote.

[xbl]

But the complex thing is that the SNP numbers haven't fallen. If anything, it looks like they'll be set to gain a couple seats. So their numbers have held up, their seats look like they could go up, and in any other year that would be a good electoral result. There can't be that many times when a government has won more seats but still lost. So I dispute the definition of sickener. Disappointing yes, sickener no. If anything, its a decent basis for the future. Scotland will effectively become a two party system, with the SNP secure in second place and able to point to a successful term of government. Its not a massive problem, after all, it was only a few years ago that Labour rule forever was predicted.

You're right enough that the highlands will be interesting. Who is it that has a personal vote though? The likes of Campbell and Kennedy yes, but they are MPs. Which Lib Dem MSPs have a strong personal vote (genuine question)?

[Ad Lib]

But the complex thing is that the SNP numbers haven't fallen. If anything, it looks like they'll be set to gain a couple seats.

No doubt in part down to the Liberal and Tory votes taking a bit of a hammering. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a lot of the Liberal if not the Tory vote has gone to the SNP to replace (what will have in part, but certainly not in totality) been an anti-Labour vote at the last election.

So their numbers have held up, their seats look like they could go up, and in any other year that would be a good electoral result. There can't be that many times when a government has won more seats but still lost.

Mainly because it's incredibly rare for a minority government (by such a large seat margin) to run a full term.

So I dispute the definition of sickener. Disappointing yes, sickener no.

I think you're being too optimistic.

If anything, its a decent basis for the future. Scotland will effectively become a two party system, with the SNP secure in second place and able to point to a successful term of government. Its not a massive problem, after all, it was only a few years ago that Labour rule forever was predicted.

A two party system is a disaster. I want to see the UK become hyper-pluralist with all the main parties broken up into discrete groups taking different (well actually preferably no) whips.

You're right enough that the highlands will be interesting. Who is it that has a personal vote though? The likes of Campbell and Kennedy yes, but they are MPs. Which Lib Dem MSPs have a strong personal vote (genuine question)?

I think the strong personal affiliation to e.g. Kennedy means that they have a strong local party. That in turn translates into a better Holyrood performance than they'd otherwise expect. In terms of actual political personality, there's really not a lot in the SPP if we're being honest.

[xbl]

No doubt in part down to the Liberal and Tory votes taking a bit of a hammering. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a lot of the Liberal if not the Tory vote has gone to the SNP to replace (what will have in part, but certainly not in totality) been an anti-Labour vote at the last election.

Right. So at the last election, the historically high figures were because of a protest vote. And now the same figures four years on are because of a protest vote. Thats an awful lot of protest.

I think you're being too optimistic.

Maybe, but I knew the SNP would only have one term, and I knew Labour would be back in. But the thing is that just because they lose at the next election, does not mean they are finished. They've showed they can do it, they have experience in government, and showed that they are more than a one issue party. Also, the independence cause has moved another baby step forward thanks to the Scotland Act. So the SNP will be back. Its not the end of the world, although it will be disappointing.

I think the strong personal affiliation to e.g. Kennedy means that they have a strong local party. That in turn translates into a better Holyrood performance than they'd otherwise expect. In terms of actual political personality, there's really not a lot in the SPP if we're being honest.

They are already behind the Tories! Their numbers in 2007 were embarrassingly low, and I've been predicting a near wipe out since about 2008.

[Ad Lib]

Right. So at the last election, the historically high figures were because of a protest vote. And now the same figures four years on are because of a protest vote. Thats an awful lot of protest.

Less protest, more anti-incumbent swing. It's nothing new. The only difference is the SNP are best placed to capitalise in the current balance. Dissatisfaction with the big parliament is clearly having more of an effect than dissatisfaction with the operators of the parish council.

Maybe, but I knew the SNP would only have one term, and I knew Labour would be back in. But the thing is that just because they lose at the next election, does not mean they are finished. They've showed they can do it, they have experience in government, and showed that they are more than a one issue party. Also, the independence cause has moved another baby step forward thanks to the Scotland Act. So the SNP will be back. Its not the end of the world, although it will be disappointing.

No one's saying that it means they're finished. You have to admit though, to go from government (even minority) to the main opposition party securing a clear majority under a proportional electoral system in a parliament that has never seen anyone near a majority would be pretty galling.

They are already behind the Tories! Their numbers in 2007 were embarrassingly low, and I've been predicting a near wipe out since about 2008.

They've almost always been behind the Tories in Scotland. I'm not sure what point you're making here...

[Ivo den Bieman]

They are already behind the Tories! Their numbers in 2007 were embarrassingly low, and I've been predicting a near wipe out since about 2008.

Much as I'd like to see the Liberals chastened and humiliated at the ballot box, after their performance in the last few months, it's worth bearing in mind that even the Tories, at virtually their lowest ebb in 1999, had 17 list MSPs elected.

Unfortunately, the list will ensure that there is still a pretty reasonable Liberal representation in the next Scottish parliament. Maybe they'll lose one or two constituency MSPs, but they certainly won't be wiped out.

The wipe out won't happen until the next Westminster showing when, if things continue as they are currently, the Liberals will simply cease to exist outside of Cornwall and Devon, Alan Beith, Charlie Kennedy and Ming Campbell.

[Enigma]

Which Lib Dem MSPs have a strong personal vote (genuine question)?

To be honest Tavish Scott is the only one I can really think of, im not basing that on much though.

[ICTChris]

Most of the LibDems in the North have a good degree of local support, I know that Jamie Stone is active locally and relatively well regarded. Im not sure if, outside the Ewings, the SNP have the same local support. Having said that I havent lived up there for years so things could have changed. Labour had good local reprentatives in David Stewart and Peter Peacock, although I know some people really didnt like Stewart.

[Ivo den Bieman]

The "Stone of Density"? Well regarded?

Would agree that Tavish Scott is quite well liked. Mike Rumbles and Jeremy Purvis are high profile-ish. Not sure how Nicol Stephen is regarded these days after his colourless, uninspired spell as leader. Other than that, the Scottish parliamentary party is a hugely anonymous bunch.

[xbl]

Looks like we're being punished for not going along with Britain on fees:

Scotland will have one of the most restrictive visa regimes in the world for overseas students under Westminster Government plans to crack down on immigration, universities have warned.

Universities Scotland, which represents university principals, argues the proposals will make visa conditions here tougher than those of countries such as America, Canada, Australia and Germany – who are in direct competition for students. Students from countries such as China and India pay significant fees to study in Scotland, providing a crucial source of additional income for universities, particularly at a time of public funding cuts.

The Coalition is proposing to tighten up the issuing of student visas as part of wider restrictions on immigration. Following an initial announcement last year, the UK Borders Agency has now launched a public consultation on reform of the student immigration system. It closes at the end of January. The agency’s consultation does not propose a specific cap on student numbers, but universities argue the changes are so restrictive they will put Scotland at a major competitive disadvantage. In particular, they are concerned at proposals to limit employment rights, including work placements which are part of a degree, as well as employment between undergraduate and postgraduate study. In addition, the measures would restrict the right of a student’s family to come to Scotland with them.

Universities Scotland has now written to all MPs calling for support for a separate immigration policy for Scotland. Alastair Sim, the organisation’s director, said the UKBA proposals posed a “big threat” to universities. “At the same time as university funding is cut across the UK, and universities are told to increase their income from other sources, we face a set of proposals which will completely undermine our ability to succeed in what is already a highly competitive market,” he said. “Scotland’s economic and demographic circumstances necessitate a different approach to England – a Scottish solution is needed".

Does London Know Best? Are they right to cap our immigration further and in doing so slice down University funding? Any defenders of the Union wish to explain it to me?

[Pink Freud]

Looks like we're being punished for not going along with Britain on fees:

Does London Know Best? Are they right to cap our immigration further and in doing so slice down University funding? Any defenders of the Union wish to explain it to me?

Yeah, I can explain that. By discriminating against other UK students at the expense of SCottish and EU citizens, Scotland has effectively started to poach students from English universities on a cost basis. IN case you've forgotten, that particular piece of largesse is costing the Scottish tax payer £78 million until the loophole for EU students, who less we forget get the same levels of funding as Scottish ones (100%), but are effectivel subsidised by UK taxpayers not resident in Scotland.

[xbl]

Well well well...

Minimum alcohol price levels planned by coalition

But for viewers in Scotland, the Tory and Lib Dems advocate something else, preferably something that the SNP didn't propose.

[ICTChris]

Well well well...

Minimum alcohol price levels planned by coalition

But for viewers in Scotland, the Tory and Lib Dems advocate something else, preferably something that the SNP didn't propose.

Bollocks in Scotland, Bollocks in England (and Wales)

[Reynard]

Well well well...

Minimum alcohol price levels planned by coalition

But for viewers in Scotland, the Tory and Lib Dems advocate something else, preferably something that the SNP didn't propose.

Its still a load of bollocks.

I wonder if they will manage to get it through though?

[H_B]

Absolutely shite idea.

[Ad Lib]

Well well well...

Minimum alcohol price levels planned by coalition

But for viewers in Scotland, the Tory and Lib Dems advocate something else, preferably something that the SNP didn't propose.

Morons. Daft idea and should not happen.

[xbl]

UK unemployment total rises further

UK unemployment rose by 49,000 to almost 2.5 million in the three months to the end of November, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said. One in five 16 to 24-year-olds are now out of work, after a rise of 32,000 to 951,000 without jobs, the highest figure since records began in 1992.

Scottish unemployment rate drops to 8.4%

Unemployment in Scotland fell for a second time with a 5,000 drop between September to November to 225,000, the Office for National Statistics said. However, the total is 23,000 higher than for the same period in 2009. Scotland's overall unemployment rate - which includes those who are jobless but not eligible for benefits - is 8.4%, higher than the UK rate of 7.9%.