Colkitto Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Clearly we are not going to agree. But if Yes win despite not having led at any point in reliable polls then I think that's safe to say a seismic change. We'll see come September who is correct. cheers! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The campaign for Scottish independence has "virtually no chance" of victory, according to Nate Silver, the polling expert who accurately called the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections. In an interview with the Scotsman, Silver, who correctly predicted the results of all 50 states in 2012, said the Scottish data was "pretty definitive". "There's virtually no chance that the 'yes' side will win," he said. "If you look at the polls, it's pretty definitive really where the no side is at 60-55% and the yes side is about 40 or so." http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/13/nate-silver-scottish-independence-referendum "virtually no chance" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/13/nate-silver-scottish-independence-referendum Wow. News from 2013. How retro. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ha! Never noticed that. Wonder what his opinion is now when not much has changed? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ha! Never noticed that. Wonder what his opinion is now when not much has changed? The article is from August 2013. If you look at Scot Goes Pop's most recent rolling poll of polls, you can see that No had an average lead of 20.2% in September 2013. The current average No lead is given as 12.9% http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ Do you consider that losing over a third of your lead in 6 months isn't much of a change? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'd agree with the premise that the Yes campaign has virtually no chance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Jack D Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'd agree with the premise that the Yes campaign has virtually no chance. Sadly, I agree. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'd agree with the premise that the Yes campaign has virtually no chance. The premise based on six months' out-of-date polls? Aye okay then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The premise based on six months' out-of-date polls? Aye okay then. Son, they've been banging on about independence all my adult life and support has never wavered much around 30-odd per cent. The SNP have had years of government whining and blaming the English (whoops, sorry - Westminster) for everything then an all out referendum campaign for a year and support still isn't much better. It's a young man's obsession, grass being greener etc, that adults grow out of. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Son, they've been banging on about independence all my adult life and support has never wavered much around 30-odd per cent. The SNP have had years of government whining and blaming the English (whoops, sorry - Westminster) for everything then an all out referendum campaign for a year and support still isn't much better. It's a young man's obsession, grass being greener etc, that adults grow out of. Are you a hermit? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Son, they've been banging on about independence all my adult life and support has never wavered much around 30-odd per cent. The SNP have had years of government whining and blaming the English (whoops, sorry - Westminster) for everything then an all out referendum campaign for a year and support still isn't much better. It's a young man's obsession, grass being greener etc, that adults grow out of. Are you a Labour Party spokesman? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Son, they've been banging on about independence all my adult life and support has never wavered much around 30-odd per cent. The SNP have had years of government whining and blaming the English (whoops, sorry - Westminster) for everything then an all out referendum campaign for a year and support still isn't much better. It's a young man's obsession, grass being greener etc, that adults grow out of. tell that to all the other sovereign nations. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dipped Flake Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Son, they've been banging on about independence all my adult life and support has never wavered much around 30-odd per cent. The SNP have had years of government whining and blaming the English (whoops, sorry - Westminster) for everything then an all out referendum campaign for a year and support still isn't much better. It's a young man's obsession, grass being greener etc, that adults grow out of. have you just totally ignored the last few posts relating to the poll of polls that shows the average support for Independence is now over 35% and over 42% once ou exclude the don't knows? This shows that support for Independence is growing or are all the polling companies lying 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Son, they've been banging on about independence all my adult life and support has never wavered much around 30-odd per cent. The SNP have had years of government whining and blaming the English (whoops, sorry - Westminster) for everything then an all out referendum campaign for a year and support still isn't much better. It's a young man's obsession, grass being greener etc, that adults grow out of. ^^^ clutching at straws 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 have you just totally ignored the last few posts relating to the poll of polls that shows the average support for Independence is now over 35% and over 42% once ou exclude the don't knows? This shows that support for Independence is growing or are all the polling companies lying So 30-odd per cent. The same as it was in the 70s, 80s, 90s, etc etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So 30-odd per cent. The same as it was in the 70s, 80s, 90s, etc etc. over 42% isn't 30-odd percent, surely? If it goes over 50%, are you still going to claim that's 30-odd? For what it's worth, it does look difficult for the Yes campaign, but it's not impossible. I think a lot of the 'don't knows' want to vote yes, but want harder evidence before decarling themselves. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's only over 42% when you fiddle the figures and exclude the ones you don't like! The latest piece of desperate spin from the dreamers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dipped Flake Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's only over 42% when you fiddle the figures and exclude the ones you don't like! The latest piece of desperate spin from the dreamers. you just don't understand polls do you??? Anyway, the NO majority has gone down from over 20% to under 13% in the last 6 months so surely even you must admit the trend is towards YES. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's only over 42% when you fiddle the figures and exclude the ones you don't like! The latest piece of desperate spin from the dreamers. ^^^ troll AND embarrassed to be Scottish. For shame. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Look - you've had almost the perfect political storm in the run-up to this referendum. 1) Years of stable and successful SNP administrations in Holyrood 2) Tories utterly nowhere in Scotland. 3) Labour an absolute clusterfuck of epic proportions 4) LibDems inextricably associated with ... 5) A despised Tory government in London bringing in massive public spending cuts. 6) A very professional, slick, well-funded and sustained Yes Campaign that's been running hard for a year and... 7) A No Campaign that's been inept, feeble and insulting to even the most basic intelligence. Add in to all this the trend for small nations being created all over Europe with the breakup of the Soviet Bloc, continued oil flowing ashore, potential new revenue streams in renewables... The big question is - why the hell isn't the Yes Campaign out of sight by 15-20 points? Why are you talking about trends of small increments and fiddling figures for appearances sake? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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