Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[renton]

It does seem a small sample size but I think the fact that the North East is a bit of an SNP heartland makes it likely to be a Yes backer. Regional breakdowns are interesting, I saw a poll tweeted that the Borders / South of Scotland were heavily No, I think it was around 65% to 25%. Not surprised about that but I find those figures for thw Highlands quite surprising.

The borders and Dumfries are no surprise, they came out as massively no even in the 1979 devolution referndum.

[H_B]

The borders and Dumfries are no surprise, they came out as massively no even in the 1979 devolution referndum.

Orkney and Shetland will also be massively No in the referendum.

[ayrmad]

What makes him think that? Last minute changes of mind? A shy yes voter syndrome? Or a full-on conspiracy theory against the pollsters?

I don't know but I would like to see YES breaking 50% occasionally just to back up my own feelings.

[Colkitto]

Certainly Colkitto will immediately ignore the contents of this poll for that reason.

[ayrmad]

Intersting point here, as several of the other pollsters (I think in fact, the other 3 internet pollsters at least) have that age group as being the most Yes friendly group.

It's wee snippets like that that keep my confidence up.

[Confidemus]

I'll remain agnostic until the 18th Sept.

Sure you will.

[ICTChris]

. I'll remain agnostic until the 18th Sept.

DIE HERETIC SCUM

[ecto]

What's wrong with discounting people who don't know how they'll vote? And there is no way in hell Alex Salmond was the first to do that. Standard practice for many polls.

He was the 1st Politician of this campaign to do it, but not the last I surmise

Edited June 19, 2014 by ecto

[Burma]

He was the 1st Politician of this campaign to do it, but not the last I surmise

What do you mean by "this campaign"? Wasnt that prior the campaign period starting?

[Burma]

Orkney and Shetland will also be massively No in the referendum.

What makes you say that? Not disagreeing and tbh with a combined population of significantly less than East Kilbride I doubt it will be pivotal in any way, especially when the actual vote on the day might be less than 10'000 turning out. Just curious as to how you came up with such a certain prediction.

[ecto]

What do you mean by "this campaign"? Wasnt that prior the campaign period starting?

you are right it was during the 3 year pre-campaign, campaign

[ICTChris]

What makes you say that? Not disagreeing and tbh with a combined population of significantly less than East Kilbride I doubt it will be pivotal in any way, especially when the actual vote on the day might be less than 10'000 turning out. Just curious as to how you came up with such a certain prediction.

Orkney and Shetland is probably the constituency with the lowest SNP vote (10% in the last Westminster election) and the SNP have never won more than 17% in a General election there. In the Scottish Parliament, where the SNP generally do better, the SNP managed to get 25% in Orkney and 22% in Shetland.

In the 1979 devolution referendum both areas were the heaviest No in the country (Orkney 27.89% yes, 72.11% No; Shetland 26.98% Yes, 73.02% No). In the 1997 referendum both areas were among the narrowest wins for the Yes campaign and Orkney voted No on the tax-raising powers question, along with Dumfries and Galloway the only areas to do so.

[Burma]

Orkney and Shetland is probably the constituency with the lowest SNP vote (10% in the last Westminster election) and the SNP have never won more than 17% in a General election there. In the Scottish Parliament, where the SNP generally do better, the SNP managed to get 25% in Orkney and 22% in Shetland.

In the 1979 devolution referendum both areas were the heaviest No in the country (Orkney 27.89% yes, 72.11% No; Shetland 26.98% Yes, 73.02% No). In the 1997 referendum both areas were among the narrowest wins for the Yes campaign and Orkney voted No on the tax-raising powers question, along with Dumfries and Galloway the only areas to do so.

Fair enough. Cant see much wrong with that logic.

[lichtgilphead]

But I will say both sides have been a bit naughty with the polls, it was Salmond on the now infamous Marr show when he claimed a recent poll had the Yes vote at 45%, but he had discounted the Dks, that was the 1st time he had used this, and since then both sides have done this

He was the 1st Politician of this campaign to do it, but not the last I surmise

you are right it was during the 3 year pre-campaign, campaign

Any chance of some proof of your views, ecto?

If I've got you right, you're suggesting that Salmond was the first ever politician to discount DK's from a poll in advance of a Scottish referendum.

Here's a link to Ipso-Mori figures from 1979

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2807/Scottish-Devolution-Referendum-Surveys-1979.aspx?view=wide

and a copy of the final table on the page, which shows shows voting intentions in the run-up to the poll, and the final result.

Base: All giving a referendum voting intention (i.e. repercentaged to exclude "don't knows")

12-14 February 1979 Yes 64% No 36%

20-22 February 1979 Yes 60% No 40%

27-28 February 1979 Yes 50% No 50%

Referendum result 1 March 1979 Yes 51.6% No 48.4%

Can you either specifically show that these results were issued by Salmond, or provide proof that figures that excluded "Don't Know" at were used by him at an earlier date.

Alternatively, you could confirm that you were making stuff up again?

edit to sort table formatting problems & me typing "No" where I meant to say "Don't Know" at one point

Edited June 19, 2014 by lichtgilphead

[H_B]

What makes you say that? Not disagreeing and tbh with a combined population of significantly less than East Kilbride I doubt it will be pivotal in any way, especially when the actual vote on the day might be less than 10'000 turning out. Just curious as to how you came up with such a certain prediction.

"No" won by a landslide in 1979. The SNP don't win elections there in either General Elections or Scottish Parliament elections.

Orkney and Shetland will both return clear No verdicts. Probably by the biggest percentage of any region.

[renton]

Any chance of some proof of your views, ecto?

If I've got you right, you're suggesting that Salmond was the first ever politician to discount DK's from a poll in advance of a Scottish referendum.

Here's a link to Ipso-Mori figures from 1979

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2807/Scottish-Devolution-Referendum-Surveys-1979.aspx?view=wide

and a copy of the final table on the page, which shows shows voting intentions in the run-up to the poll, and the final result.

Base: All giving a referendum voting intention (i.e. repercentaged to exclude "don't knows")

12-14 February 1979 Yes 64% No 36%

20-22 February 1979 Yes 60% No 40%

27-28 February 1979 Yes 50% No 50%

Referendum result 1 March 1979 Yes 51.6% No 48.4%

Can you either specifically show that these results were issued by Salmond, or provide proof that figures that excluded "Don't Know" at were used by him at an earlier date.

Alternatively, you could confirm that you were making stuff up again?

edit to sort table formatting problems & me typing "No" where I meant to say "Don't Know" at one point

That's a huge swing (sorry HB) in two weeks there.

[lichtgilphead]

Trollolololololololol

I think Half_Baked meant to say "No won by a landslide in 1979 if you count the dead and non-voters as "No" votes"

Surely even he doesn't believe that they got a majority of the actual votes cast

[H_B]

I think Half_Baked meant to say "No won by a landslide in 1979 if you count the dead and non-voters as "No" votes"

Surely even he doesn't believe that they got a majority of the actual votes cast

I'm really cringing at the Half_Baked thing - that's Confidemus level "banter". Ooft - awful stuff.

Are you claiming that in the 1979 referendum "Yes" got more votes than "No" in Orkney and Shetland?

Edited June 20, 2014 by H_B

[renton]

I'm really cringing at the Half_Baked thing - that's Confidemus level "banter". Ooft - awful stuff.

Are you claiming that in the 1979 referendum "Yes" got more votes than "No" in Orkney and Shetland?

To be fair, your first post wasn't entirely clear on whether you meant the vote in the islands or the vote in the country.

[Confidemus]

I'm really cringing at the Half_Baked thing - that's Confidemus level "banter". Ooft - awful stuff.

Are you claiming that in the 1979 referendum "Yes" got more votes than "No" in Orkney and Shetland?

I like "Half_Baked". It's better than my "half_brick" effort.