Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Blaven]

Yes had no chance then and it has no chance now. Its brillaint watching the clown collective do the group hug and BULEEVING but the truth is it was over as soon as Eton posh boy Cameron shafted Salmond in Edimburgh. Posh boy Osborne applied to coup de grace on Feb 14th by pointing and laughing at the flimsy currency plans of the SNP.

The next few weeks in here will be utterly hilarious watching the clown collective realise what an arse theyve made of this.

You know that old saying? It's better to have tried and lost than to have spent your life sucking the c*ck of a Tory government.

Man do you suck.

More confident of a YES win than ever. Every time your on here it just reasures me that the NO side are rattled.

Cheers sucker.

[George Parr]

I've caught up with around 76 undecideds since the Debate.

I forget what they said.

[ayrmad]

I know lots about gambling.

Just not so much about winning !

I'm an expert on that front.

[doulikefish]

http://www.glawest.org/poll-shows-yes-takes-the-lead-in-glasgow/

[Baxter Parp]

http://www.glawest.org/poll-shows-yes-takes-the-lead-in-glasgow/

Blimey.

[Colkitto]

Blimey.

I'm not a betting man myself but HB is. He was willing to bet me Glasgow would vote No.

Wonder if he still believes that and still willing to bet (not with me of course)

[renton]

I'm not a betting man myself but HB is. He was willing to bet me Glasgow would vote No.

Wonder if he still believes that and still willing to bet (not with me of course)

To be fair, it's not the first poll to show Glasgow tending yes - a fair few have, but then your into sub-sample territory and large statistical uncertainty (about +/- 7%, I think, at that size) so you really can't take too much from it.

There never has been a full poll done on what Glasgow, or Edinburgh would vote. I recall there being a borders only poll - woudl be nice to see some full regional polls.

[ICTChris]

To be fair, it's not the first poll to show Glasgow tending yes - a fair few have, but then your into sub-sample territory and large statistical uncertainty (about +/- 7%, I think, at that size) so you really can't take too much from it.

There never has been a full poll done on what Glasgow, or Edinburgh would vote. I recall there being a borders only poll - woudl be nice to see some full regional polls.

There were some regional polls done a few weeks ago, I think I posted them in here?

[renton]

There were some regional polls done a few weeks ago, I think I posted them in here?

Weren't they just sub-samples of the standard 1,000 respondant polls?

[ICTChris]

Weren't they just sub-samples of the standard 1,000 respondant polls?

Not sure. Those polls, whatever their sample size etc, put Glasgow as the area of Scotalnd with the highest Yes %.

Edited August 8, 2014 by ICTChris

[renton]

Not sure. Those polls, whatever their sample size etc, put Glasgow as the area of Scotalnd with the highest Yes %.

If yes can get Glasgow city and greater glasgow then they have a chance (so long as they avoid an absolute drubbing in Edinburgh and Aberdeen)

[ICTChris]

According to the data from that Survation poll Yes are winning Glasgow and the South of Scotland but are given a vote of 26% in Lothians? They are also at 30% in Mid-Scotalnd and Fife, which seems hard to believe.

Scores on the doors in that poll

Highland and Islands

Yes - 40.7%

No - 51.5%

Undec - 7.9%

South Scotland

Yes - 50%

No - 38.7%

Undec - 11.2%

Central Scotalnd

Yes - 44.9%

No - 42.9%

Undec - 12.4%

Mid Scotland and Fife

Yes - 30.2%

No - 52.5%

Undec - 17.3%

Glasgow

Yes - 44.1%

No - 37.9%

Undec - 18.0%

West Scotalnd

Yes - 35.9%

No - 50.5%

Undec - 13.6%

Lothian

Yes - 26.9%

No - 53.9%

Undec - 19.3%

North East

Yes - 50.2%

No - 40.0%

Undec - 9.9%

As renton said above about another poll, these are just subsets of a larger poll so have a smaller sample size.

Edited August 8, 2014 by ICTChris

[renton]

According to the data from that Survation poll Yes are winning Glasgow and the South of Scotland but are given a vote of 26% in Lothians? They are also at 30% in Mid-Scotalnd and Fife, which seems hard to believe.

Scores on the doors in that poll

Highland and Islands

Yes - 40.7%

No - 51.5%

Undec - 7.9%

South Scotland

Yes - 50%

No - 38.7%

Undec - 11.2%

Central Scotalnd

Yes - 44.9%

No - 42.9%

Undec - 12.4%

Mid Scotland and Fife

Yes - 30.2%

No - 52.5%

Undec - 17.3%

Glasgow

Yes - 44.1%

No - 37.9%

Undec - 18.0%

West Scotalnd

Yes - 35.9%

No - 50.5%

Undec - 13.6%

Lothian

Yes - 26.9%

No - 53.9%

Undec - 19.3%

North East

Yes - 50.2%

No - 40.0%

Undec - 9.9%

As renton said above about another poll, these are just subsets of a larger poll so have a smaller sample size.

yeah, I'm reasonably sure that, if nothing else, Yes will get absolutely papped in South of Scotland, which kind of makes the rest of the numbers suspect.

[Guest]

No will take Aberdeen unfortunately.

Not a drubbing but comfortably all the same so we need a decent result in Glesga.

[Thumper]

I think people have misconceptions about the north east. I mean, practically everyone I know from Aberdeen is either English or in oil (or in multiple cases, both) but that's not the entirety of the population. Much the same as when people stereotype Edinburgh as being full of Etonian yahs - yes, it has more of them than, say, Paisley, but the vast majority of the locals hate them as much as anyone else does.

Even Ayr is no certainty for No and it was the Toriest place in Scotland for decades. The local council wanting to cancel the immensely popular Prestwick Prom in case any of the locals dared hand out Yes stickers stuck in the craws of a great many people. Jai McDowall is also a raging nat, which helps.

[Tio Pepe]

I think people have misconceptions about the north east. I mean, practically everyone I know from Aberdeen is either English or in oil (or in multiple cases, both) but that's not the entirety of the population. Much the same as when people stereotype Edinburgh as being full of Etonian yahs - yes, it has more of them than, say, Paisley, but the vast majority of the locals hate them as much as anyone else does.

Even Ayr is no certainty for No and it was the Toriest place in Scotland for decades. The local council wanting to cancel the immensely popular Prestwick Prom in case any of the locals dared hand out Yes stickers stuck in the craws of a great many people. Jai McDowall is also a raging nat, which helps.

Who is Jai McDowall and which people do you believe will be stupid enough to cast their vote based on his views rather than their own?

[Kejan]

I've bet a pal £100 that Glasgow and Dundee will both vote yes.

He thinks all the cities will vote no and it'll be "Only teuchters and bumpkins who'll vote yes".

Dundee I think is the safest bet for a yes city?

[HaikuHibee]

To be fair, it's not the first poll to show Glasgow tending yes - a fair few have, but then your into sub-sample territory and large statistical uncertainty (about +/- 7%, I think, at that size) so you really can't take too much from it.

There never has been a full poll done on what Glasgow, or Edinburgh would vote. I recall there being a borders only poll - woudl be nice to see some full regional polls.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/scotland/254563/poll-majority-would-vote-yes-in-north-east/

[Jimmy Shaker]

I don't know about Aberdeen. There's a shortage of flags, badges, etc. on the go in town itself, but the occasional splash of graffiti promoting 'Yes'. I've seen little in the way of campaigning on the streets except for a small 'No' stall which stood shivering in the rain last weekend while all their materials were soaked and ruined. Tubes. Were one to judge the vote on presence of Yes/No imagery hiding inamongst the monied dwellers of Kingswells, Yes would take the area, but it's hard to say how the Yanks and English kicking about would vote. I get the feeling there's an apathy in the city that's not present elsewhere. Meetings, marches, gatherings, etc., all seem to be on a smaller scale or less publicised than elsewhere. A solid effort this month could swing it, but after two years of horseshit from politicians, I have a feeling the result v Germany the week before the vote will make more difference than any last minute campaigning in some places up here.

In the Shire things are a bit more 'No', with more flags and badges promoting the negative seen at The Turriff Show last weekend, although the Better Together and Yes Scotland stalls were perched next to each other and the latter was making may more effort to approach punters while the BT lot stood idle trying to hand out Union Flags to loaded farmers who are already committed unionists.

Along the coast, Yes seems to be more prominent, but we're a shy type in the north-east and not known for actively taking an interest in anything bar moonshine and cousins. The Yestival evening in Lossiemouth drew a big crowd despite being forced to change venue at the last minute when the original venue refused to open their doors to them or even answer the phone, while the No campaign in town is run exclusively by Tories and thus is having a hard time. Burghead is full of Rangers fans who have defaulted to the expected position of having spent the entire week shouting 'What's Plan B?' out of their windows at passing cars.

It's all quite quiet. I think folk (myself included) have stopped involving themselves in the debate as much as possible and just want it done. Perhaps that was the plan all along for some.

[1320Lichtie]

I don't know about Aberdeen. There's a shortage of flags, badges, etc. on the go in town itself, but the occasional splash of graffiti promoting 'Yes'. I've seen little in the way of campaigning on the streets except for a small 'No' stall which stood shivering in the rain last weekend while all their materials were soaked and ruined. Tubes. Were one to judge the vote on presence of Yes/No imagery hiding inamongst the monied dwellers of Kingswells, Yes would take the area, but it's hard to say how the Yanks and English kicking about would vote. I get the feeling there's an apathy in the city that's not present elsewhere. Meetings, marches, gatherings, etc., all seem to be on a smaller scale or less publicised than elsewhere. A solid effort this month could swing it, but after two years of horseshit from politicians, I have a feeling the result v Germany the week before the vote will make more difference than any last minute campaigning in some places up here.

In the Shire things are a bit more 'No', with more flags and badges promoting the negative seen at The Turriff Show last weekend, although the Better Together and Yes Scotland stalls were perched next to each other and the latter was making may more effort to approach punters while the BT lot stood idle trying to hand out Union Flags to loaded farmers who are already committed unionists.

Along the coast, Yes seems to be more prominent, but we're a shy type in the north-east and not known for actively taking an interest in anything bar moonshine and cousins. The Yestival evening in Lossiemouth drew a big crowd despite being forced to change venue at the last minute when the original venue refused to open their doors to them or even answer the phone, while the No campaign in town is run exclusively by Tories and thus is having a hard time. Burghead is full of Rangers fans who have defaulted to the expected position of having spent the entire week shouting 'What's Plan B?' out of their windows at passing cars.

It's all quite quiet. I think folk (myself included) have stopped involving themselves in the debate as much as possible and just want it done. Perhaps that was the plan all along for some.

Imagine Scotland trounced Germany and everybody got a new sense of patriotism and voted AYE.

Should of had the England game before the referendum....