renton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Looks like we won't be seeing ICM until tomorrow - they only stopped interviewing today. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Shark Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Chill. No way we were going to see yes push further ahead after the last two YG polls with Survation and PB tucking in at 48% odd. It's simply that Yes has pushed to within a couple of points in the BPC polls and that is now fairly broadly agreed on by all of them. Given the sampling period and the fast movement of the campaign now, it's a miracle the yes vote held up as much as it did. Another polling sample could easily find Yes a couple of points up again. Agree. I think 4 points adrift at this stage and after the tsunami we've just experienced is actually quite encouraging. Was a bit down this morning but perked up seeing Salmond chew up and spit Robinson out in front of the worlds media. Then had a chat with Yes canvasser who was perky as f**k and claimed that the polls, compared to what he's hearing on the doorsteps, are bollocks. Now, he was saying what I wanted to hear, so a health warning with that, but it's far from over. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anonapersona Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Not too bad considering that Scotland just received the most blatantly one-sided onslaught from the MSM and corporate Britain. Now it's time to debunk the nonsense and get that momentum going again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 YouGov's figures likely won't account for yesterday's surge of bollocks. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poet of the Macabre Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 All that effort, all those events and coverage...and it's 52-48? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerwickMad Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Salmond should have done his best to try and ignore Cameron/Milliband and Clegg. He made a big deal about how he would pay for their bus fair and how it was great news of the Yes campaign. Came across really badly because of it. People don't like being told what they think. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Oh Ye of little faith : A Week Is A Long Time In Politics. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 BerwickMad, on 11 Sept 2014 - 23:11, said:Salmond should have done his best to try and ignore Cameron/Milliband and Clegg. He made a big deal about how he would pay for their bus fair and how it was great news of the Yes campaign. Came across really badly because of it. People don't like being told what they think. If that was the case Scotland would already be independent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The political betting chap on Twitter was waxing lyrical about the Ipsos-Mori phone poll that predicted, within 0.2% the AV referendum last time. Apparently they are doing another one for the independence referendum, dunno when it's coming out - very close to the day I think. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Turnout for AV was 42% though, probably accounts for the old biddies who still have a landline. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I'm struggling to work out why a pollster's performance for the AV referendum would in any way be correlated with their performance in this referendum. The AV stuff wasn't even the main election being held that day - particularly in Scotland - and the turnout consisted of the normal people who go and vote in every election. The turnout for this one is going to be massive in comparison, and will have a lot of first-time voters involved. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I'd punt at the poll result being something wild like 55-30-15 for No. Even using a landline to conduct a poll seems an absolutely bizarre practice in 2014. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Keep the faith and keep the heid lads. Lots of weans jumping to Yes after the gianthugemassive debate last night. Also, as I pointed out previously, this is a vote unlike any other. A lot of people who would never normally vote are being energised by the Yes campaign. A lot of people who would never be on a pollster's panel. We also have more people on the streets and more people pushing the word on social media. Plus George Galloway's doddery fascim, Nigel Farage and the Orange Order. I'm going to say Yes will win with at least 55%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) If you'd given me 48% with a week to spare, I probably would have taken it. This is where the grass roots work will pay off. The corporate media and political elite can keep throwing shit at it all they want, but if they keep doing it for the rest of the week with the same old soundbites (as I doubt they have anything else in the artillery other than repetition of their own points), it will surely start to feel tedious to most of the electorate. Edited September 12, 2014 by the jambo-rocker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 It's completely neck and neck. I think if I was to sit down and make a list of everyone I know personally and their voting intentions it would be a complete 50/50 split. Literally too close to call. Which I woud've taken going into the last week. Clusterfuck of a few days ahead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) I think our best chance of victory is to trail by 2 to 5 points right up unil the voting starts. Edited September 12, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Unless there is a huge gap of between 5-10% then I'm not taking any poll too seriously - that includes polls showing a Yes lead. Turnout is going to be huge for this referendum. I predict 80% > and will be made up of first time and lapsed voters. Going by polls it's basically neck & neck and much will depend on the so called missing millions. All to play for ... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Salmond should have done his best to try and ignore Cameron/Milliband and Clegg. He made a big deal about how he would pay for their bus fair and how it was great news of the Yes campaign. Came across really badly because of it. People don't like being told what they think. Yeah, and the No campaign has been doing.... what, exactly? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Heliums Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I'd think there will be a dip in the next polls as those recent ones don't really take into account the rampant fear mongering over the last two days - bound to have had an effect. If we're holding on to 44-45% in the weekend polls, I'd take that frankly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I'd think there will be a dip in the next polls as those recent ones don't really take into account the rampant fear mongering over the last two days - bound to have had an effect. If we're holding on to 44-45% in the weekend polls, I'd take that frankly. The 48 52 poll was conducted from Tuesday afternoon until yesterday afternoon, it covered loads of rampant fearmongering. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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