Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[renton]

42 No

40 Yes

17 DK

Surprised at the high amount of DK's.

Like TNS and their face to face polling, or the RIC and their face to face canvassing, actually talking to another human being about your opinion tends to cause a larger degree of reticence than the online polls where anonymity is guarenteed and you are self selecting from particulalry politically engaged people

Edited September 12, 2014 by renton

[Elixir]

I am literally changing my mind every hour about which way this is going to go.

I'm the same. My head is like a blender.

[Lex]

Like TNS and their face to face polling, or the RIC and thier face to face canvassing, actually talking to another human being about your opinion tends to cause a larger degree of reitcence than the online polls where anonymity is guarenteed and you are self selecting from particulalry politically engaged people

Personally I think that does a favour for YES. I think NO voters are more likely to say they are undecided than YES voters if asked face to face, it's natural to try not give a negative answer like NO when speaking to someone.

[parsforlife]

if 87% say they will definitely vote, then the don't know figure is far too high if you ask me.

Does "None of your f*cking business" count as a don't know?

I suspect so tbh, a lot of people are keeping there cards close to there chest in regards to how they'll vote and even if they believe the polls are truly anonymous I suspect a fair % of the 17% have got into the habit of telling workmates etc they are undecided that they tell pollsters the same.

[the jambo-rocker]

Screw that, that's a great poll for Yes, on a traditionally bad methodology for yes, No ahead by a literal bawhair, a weke to go and with the onslaught of the last week, the Yes vote held up.

That was my exact thoughts. After such an onslaught from the No side, that is a very good result.

I am literally changing my mind every hour about which way this is going to go.

Honestly think there is about 10,000 votes in this either way.

This. I get hyper when I think we're going to win, I get apathetic when I think we're going to lose and this goes back and forth erratically!

This is a good read here showing that the grassroots and social media campaigns are what seems to be giving us a fighting chance.

http://blog.majesticseo.com/research/scottish-election-poll/

[Lex]

I suspect so tbh, a lot of people are keeping there cards close to there chest in regards to how they'll vote and even if they believe the polls are truly anonymous I suspect a fair % of the 17% have got into the habit of telling workmates etc they are undecided that they tell pollsters the same.

Yep, I agree.

I think NO voters are far more likely to keep their vote quiet than YES voters though.

[renton]

Personally I think that does a favour for YES. I think NO voters are more likely to say they are undecided than YES voters if asked face to face, it's natural to try not give a negative answer like NO when speaking to someone.

Well, there has been a year long hunt for 'shy no' by the pollsters, of which the Kellner correction is the obvious example. There is not even any real anecdotal evidence to suggest it either - it's your opinion that it favours Yes and you could well be right, at the same time the sheer weight of negative press Yes gets and particularly in the last couple of weeks could easily make folk shy about admitting a yes vote in the face of being told they don't love their families or they are voting for a financial basket case.

Not saying your wrong, just saying that there is perfectly legitimate arguments for why it might favour the other way as well.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

It strikes me as a very Scottish characteristic to naturally not believe in ourselves but as soon as someone says we can't do something, to think "well f**k you then, we can do it".

Hopefully the DK's are a natural response to being bombarded with talk of an apocalypse and by next week many will have calmed down and decided to vote Yes.

^^^ Knowingly clutching at straws with the DK figure.

[Kyle]

Personally I think that does a favour for YES. I think NO voters are more likely to say they are undecided than YES voters if asked face to face, it's natural to try not give a negative answer like NO when speaking to someone.

Up until recently, I've said I'm undecided when people ask because I've found it can make an entire conversation tense with the person you're talking to is voting no. Think it goes both ways.

[dave.j]

42 No

40 Yes

17 DK

Surprised at the high amount of DK's.

So taking that as the country as a whole there's about 85k votes between them, with 714k "don't know".

[parsforlife]

Yep, I agree.

I think NO voters are far more likely to keep their vote quiet than YES voters though.

Not in my experience. Tbh it probably changes person to person. Herd mentality, if the majority of people around you are no then a yes voter is more likely to keep quite and vice versa. Edited September 12, 2014 by parsforlife

[Shelldon]

I hope all the 16 year olds and a large swathe of the 17 year olds that are voting in this election realise that they won't be voting in the General Election because the UK governement think they are too stupid to understand politics.

If they are voting no, do they understand that their opinion then won't matter for another 5 1/2 years.

Sadly I think giving 16 and 17 year old's the vote could come back to bite them on the arse. I'm 17 and this will be my first vote and I'm voting yes, sadly a lot of my friends do not hold the same view as me. The same old "it's fine as it is" or they decide to believe the scaremongering of the better together campaign and don't research it to find out the facts.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Yep, I agree.

I think NO voters are far more likely to keep their vote quiet than YES voters though.

Sadly, I agree with you for once.

Well, there has been a year long hunt for 'shy no' by the pollsters, of which the Kellner correction is the obvious example. There is not even any real anecdotal evidence to suggest it either - it's your opinion that it favours Yes and you could well be right, at the same time the sheer weight of negative press Yes gets and particularly in the last couple of weeks could easily make folk shy about admitting a yes vote in the face of being told they don't love their families or they are voting for a financial basket case.

Not saying your wrong, just saying that there is perfectly legitimate arguments for why it might favour the other way as well.

It's taken many a year to address the shy Tory syndrome in opinion polls. There's no precedent for how to accurately poll this Referendum and I worry that a No vote is a definite small (well and big really) c conservative decision, which could be similarily problematic.

[Kyle]

Sadly I think giving 16 and 17 year old's the vote could come back to bite them on the arse. I'm 17 and this will be my first vote and I'm voting yes, sadly a lot of my friends do not hold the same view as me. The same old "it's fine as it is" or they decide to believe the scaremongering of the better together campaign and don't research it to find out the facts.

Keep chipping away at them if you can mate. Reasoned discussion of the benefits of voting yes can turn people.

[LongTimeLurker]

What have the No campaign left with a week to go?

They've been trying to replicate what happened in the last Quebec referendum with flying the Saltire from buildings etc, but in Canada (was living there at the time) the groundswell of emotion from the rest of the country was genuine and heartfelt, because the symbolic gestures were coming from the grassroots in a spontaneous way. Elite driven stagemanaged photo-ops don't get the job done. The No side also don't have a highly charismatic prime minister from the portion of the country that is trying to break away unlike in the Quebec scenario with Trudeau in the 70s and Chretien in the 90s. They need to find a way to cut through the spin merchant crap and connect with people like Salmond has been doing in recent weeks and there's no way David Cameron is going to do that where voters in Drumchapel or Wester Hailes are concerned. Gordon Brown is a failed PM now, so he wasn't likely to be the answer to the extent he would have been a decade ago. I'm not sure who can fill that sort of role now on the Unionist side.

if 87% say they will definitely vote, then the don't know figure is far too high if you ask me.

Does "None of your f*cking business" count as a don't know?

Probably a polite way of saying it for some.

[Arabdownunder]

Telephone polling is a complete unknown when there's a bunch of 16-18 year olds involved. I've got a couple of teenagers and they never answer the landline ("won't be for me") and rarely answer their mobile unless they recognise the number ( "probably someone selling something, they'll leave a message if its important")

[Lyle Lanley]

Scottish referendum too close to call, says ICM poll

Guardian/ICM poll finds support for no campaign on 51% and yes on 49% with less than a week to go, but 17% of voters say they have yet to make up their mind

My auntie is a "no voter" i think but i will trying my best to get her to change that tomorrow.

Edited September 12, 2014 by Eoin Doyle

[Confidemus]

Whilst I am now taking all polls with a pinch of salt to be on 49% after what's happened in the media this week has to be some sort of a miracle.

6 days to go. We still have Farage, the orange order and the relentless grassroots Yes movement all pushing things in our favour.

Keep positive. Look how chipper this fat fucker is!!

[Arabdownunder]

Whilst I am now taking all polls with a pinch of salt to be on 49% after what's happened in the media this week has to be some sort of a miracle.

6 days to go. We still have Farage, the orange order and the relentless grassroots Yes movement all pushing things in our favour.

Keep positive. Look how chipper this fat fucker is!!

"Chippy" surely

[forza ton]

So that's my entire family and wife's family voting yes including all their in laws. Every acquaintance I meet is yes. I must move in really cool circles or it's going to be a right solid yes victory.