Ross. Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Mate works in the bookies in Dundee, bear in mind that Dundee is the 'Yes' city but he said that if a 'No' vote comes in, with his branch at least, the bookies will lose much more than if it were a 'Yes'. He said that despite the odds for 'Yes' being much higher, the majority of bets on a 'Yes' are in the range of £10-£20. Whereas people are putting fortunes on a 'No' vote. He said he's seen a couple of £3-4k bets on 'No' and heard of bets much higher. I'm merely speculating, but imagine a group of bookies decided to use their Scottish branches to scout opinion on the referendum. Imagine they received feedback from their branches showing a massive amount of pro yes sentiment compared to no. Imagine they were surprised at that. Imagine they thought that their original expectation of Yes as an outside bet was wrong by some distance. Imagine that they thought they could profit from this by offering very short odds on a No vote, expecting that most high stakes punters would think the establishment will make sure a No vote is certain. Imagine lots of high stakes bets going on a No vote at very short odds, from people who were certain it was a relatively risk free way to get a good return on an investment over a 2 year period. Imagine the bookies limiting the maximum stake you can place on a Yes vote to ensure they do not pay out too much if that decision is the one that comes out, ensuring that a Yes vote makes them a big profit. Merely speculation, of course. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I wish the poster Fudge would enter the odds debate here. His knowledge of odds and how the bookies work them out is unbelievable. What Loki says looks about right to me to be honest. It's not that complicated. Where people err, like the oaksoft idiot, is in deciding that only bets placed influence odds. They don't. If Man Utd are 1/100 to beat Swansea at home, even if not a penny is bet on Man Utd and all the money is on Swansea, this will likely mean the odds on Man U get better and the odds on Swansea get poorer. No matter how much is bet on Swansea, they will never become odds on favourites, as the probability of them winning is still far less than 50%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest Saints Fan Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Polled again by Yougov. Questions this time included things like are you able to speak freely about your opinion, have you fallen out with anyone and have you felt threated by the No Campaign. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Well Well Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Polled again by Yougov. Questions this time included things like are you able to speak freely about your opinion, have you fallen out with anyone and have you felt threated by the No Campaign. hmm I don't like the sound of that at all, what are they driving at..? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Polled again by Yougov. Questions this time included things like are you able to speak freely about your opinion, have you fallen out with anyone and have you felt threated by the No Campaign. Can I ask, was this phone? Also do you have to sign up to be polled? And are u over 18? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 hmm I don't like the sound of that at all, what are they driving at..? If you don't feel threatened enough they will up the fear factor for the last few days. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuckleMoo Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 hmm I don't like the sound of that at all, what are they driving at..? I might be completely wrong in this as I would be the first to admit that I'm not completely up to speed with the in's and out's of the referendum. Is there a way for the final outcome to be challenged and/or complaint made to the electoral commission on the basis of perceived/actual intimidation of the electorate? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest Saints Fan Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 (edited) Can I ask, was this phone? Also do you have to sign up to be polled? And are u over 18?It's online. Yes I'm over 18.ETA - yes you need to be signed up. It's the third time I've been polled now. Not sure when this one is due out. Edited September 15, 2014 by Honest Saints Fan 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 It's online. Yes I'm over 18. ETA - yes you need to be signed up. It's the third time I've been polled now. Not sure when this one is due out. Interesting. . So a lot of new voters wont be signed up. Cheers 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 It's online. Yes I'm over 18. ETA - yes you need to be signed up. It's the third time I've been polled now. Not sure when this one is due out. It kinda proves my point that a large swathe of new voters who have registered to vote will be of a demographic not touched by pollsters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 It kinda proves my point that a large swathe of new voters who have registered to vote will be of a demographic not touched by pollsters. More no voters eh? Guid guid guid 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 More no voters eh? Guid guid guid Keep telling yourself that and think of who's got the bigger REAL grassroots movement and who's been canvassing in these areas. Tick tock, ya crazy wee stalker.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Well Well Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 (edited) I might be completely wrong in this as I would be the first to admit that I'm not completely up to speed with the in's and out's of the referendum. Is there a way for the final outcome to be challenged and/or complaint made to the electoral commission on the basis of perceived/actual intimidation of the electorate? Exactly, what are they trying to get at. Very sinister. EDIT: I see according to Kelner in the Guardian, YouGov are going to have a large sample poll in the Sun/Times on Thursday. Polling Day..?? Edited September 15, 2014 by Well Well 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 hmm I don't like the sound of that at all, what are they driving at..? The unionists have been playing the victim all day. YES side are bullies apparently. They use the MSM, the banks and big business to bully us, but hey that's acceptable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 It kinda proves my point that a large swathe of new voters who have registered to vote will be of a demographic not touched by pollsters. Mebbes Aye, mebbes No. Pollsters struggle with false recall, so that you get folk who say they voted in (say) 2011 but actually didn't, or the other interpretation is that they genuinely do find more folk who voted than didn't, thus oversampling on one part of the population. With online polls I'm inclined to the latter, as they tend to self select volunteers from people who are politically engaged. Having said that, they do see large swings to Yes in the C2D2E percentiles and a better Yes turnout in younger age groups, both of whom will be prevelent in those new voter classes. Also, RIC canvassing returns and registration drives did show strong yes returns amongst that C2D2E sub section of the populace (on the other hand they usually threw up enough DKs so that if they broke No, those impressive yes percentages would be eroded quickly). More anecdotally, I met a guy on Saturday who'd never voted once in 35 years, pretty much his whole voting eligible life, but had registered with the intention of voting No. He didn't particularly care who ran the UK or how they did it, just so long as there was a UK. Takes all sorts. So yeah, the official pollsters do see positive news for Yes in terms of those groups who likely make up large chunks of the newely registered voters, and this is somewhat backed up by the RIC canvassing, but I'll bet it's bloody fragile and while there is a probability that new voters will swing to Yes, there is only limited data to support that and enough uncertainty for me to make it more a matter of faith than fact. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sergie's no1 fan Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I was polled by Panelbase today, for the third time. Another 40p in my pocket wooo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Mebbes Aye, mebbes No. Pollsters struggle with false recall, so that you get folk who say they voted in (say) 2011 but actually didn't, or the other interpretation is that they genuinely do find more folk who voted than didn't, thus oversampling on one part of the population. With online polls I'm inclined to the latter, as they tend to self select volunteers from people who are politically engaged. Having said that, they do see large swings to Yes in the C2D2E percentiles and a better Yes turnout in younger age groups, both of whom will be prevelent in those new voter classes. Also, RIC canvassing returns and registration drives did show strong yes returns amongst that C2D2E sub section of the populace (on the other hand they usually threw up enough DKs so that if they broke No, those impressive yes percentages would be eroded quickly). More anecdotally, I met a guy on Saturday who'd never voted once in 35 years, pretty much his whole voting eligible life, but had registered with the intention of voting No. He didn't particularly care who ran the UK or how they did it, just so long as there was a UK. Takes all sorts. So yeah, the official pollsters do see positive news for Yes in terms of those groups who likely make up large chunks of the newely registered voters, and this is somewhat backed up by the RIC canvassing, but I'll bet it's bloody fragile and while there is a probability that new voters will swing to Yes, there is only limited data to support that and enough uncertainty for me to make it more a matter of faith than fact. I've not seen you post it yet, apologies if you have Renton. What is your percentage prediction for Thursday? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I've not seen you post it yet, apologies if you have Renton. What is your percentage prediction for Thursday? Wrote a long rambling thing about it a month or two ago, I said then I thought it would be 45/55 No, based entirely on what the BPC pollsters were showing. In that time Yes have managed to close the gap with YouGov, Panelbase, TNS and Panelbase now all showing a statistical dead heat, so Yes looks good for anything in the range 48-52. Even when I've been hopeful of a Yes win, I've never seen us winning by a big margin - assuming the Yes vote holds up between now and then and you get them out on the day, I reckon 52-48 Yes. That's flipping a coin, it could easily be the other way, but mind that the BPC guys all carry a +/- 3% margin so with the current polls there is a huge degree of uncertainty - hence why YG is doing a large sample poll to try and get that polling MOE down to +/- 1% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Bojangles Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Don't know when it'll be out, but I just did a new Yougov poll. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Two horse race at Musselburgh races. YESWECAN BEAT NAETHANKS. What where the odds on that Lex? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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