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Latest Polls and Latest Odds


Lex

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What are the figures with undecideds?

No idea, not on YouGov's headlines.

I think it's a reversion to the mean, may be some push back from this weeks media frenzy and there may be something to that, but Yes is still only a bawhair out.

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@SamCoatesTimes is tweeting extracts of the poll

No ahead in all age groups, except 25-39.

42% of women are 'Yes', down 5% since last poll. 49% think they would be worse off, up 10% since last poll.

Alex Salmond's trust ratings down to 38% from 42%. Gordon Brown's up from 32% to 35%.

Only 4% are still to make up their minds.

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@SamCoatesTimes is tweeting extracts of the poll

No ahead in all age groups, except 25-39.

42% of women are 'Yes', down 5% since last poll. 49% think they would be worse off, up 10% since last poll.

Alex Salmond's trust ratings down to 38% from 42%. Gordon Brown's up from 32% to 35%.

Only 4% are still to make up their minds.

Interesting, would mean a movement in undecideds to No (think that was at 7% in the last one). Not great news.

Where the hell is ICM?

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Would obviously like to be further ahead, but certainly a relief to see normality restored after a couple of disastrous weeks for our campaign.

Interesting comment on the BBC News there, from a gent who said he'd already voted YES by post, but was now wondering if he'd 'done the right thing' after revelations over the last couple of days.

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52-48 in favour of No according to YouGov.

Demoralising.

Chill. No way we were going to see yes push further ahead after the last two YG polls with Survation and PB tucking in at 48% odd. It's simply that Yes has pushed to within a couple of points in the BPC polls and that is now fairly broadly agreed on by all of them. Given the sampling period and the fast movement of the campaign now, it's a miracle the yes vote held up as much as it did. Another polling sample could easily find Yes a couple of points up again.

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Would obviously like to be further ahead, but certainly a relief to see normality restored after a couple of disastrous weeks for our campaign.

Interesting comment on the BBC News there, from a gent who said he'd already voted YES by post, but was now wondering if he'd 'done the right thing' after revelations over the last couple of days.

Again, 51% was probably on the high side of the distribution of polling, at this point, it's a statistical tie. Same situation as the start of the week when Yes were at 51% in YG.

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52-48 in favour of No according to YouGov.

Demoralising.

If it's any consolation, the previous YouGov poll was (in my opinion) way too heavily weighted and had far more people who actually answered they would vote No, meaning Yes was never really ahead. :)

That said, I'm not really going to celebrate a 52%-48% lead.

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48% is still in the margin of error of a win. On these results it's still too close to call.

But remember the high turnout of approx. 80% which makes any poll based on 1,000 respondents a bit less accurate

Well no, it's not the size of the sample, simply that the BPC pollsters struggle to pick up on lapsed or new voters - you've already got an issue in all of them with false recall (i.e. 70% of the sample say they voted in 2011 when we know only 50% did) so you are over sampling on one part of the electorate.

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Would obviously like to be further ahead, but certainly a relief to see normality restored after a couple of disastrous weeks for our campaign.

Interesting comment on the BBC News there, from a gent who said he'd already voted YES by post, but was now wondering if he'd 'done the right thing' after revelations over the last couple of days.

Of course he did

Ron-Burgundy-Stare-and-Nod.gif

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