Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[ICTChris]

 

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

 

 

Surprised Reform are as high as 6% in Scotland.. thought they'd be at 2 or 3.

Suppose they'll be standing in every seat though, unlike for example The Greens.

[ICTChris]

7 hours ago, GordonS said:

Constituency-level predictions are all based on applying a uniform swing of one kind of another, they're all making assumptions and many of them are obviously rubbish. That site is good for trying to work out which have better methodology that others. For example, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East largely replaces Banff & Buchan. Labour haven't had more than 15% in any general election there since 1970 and are usually well below that level. Sevanta has them a close third on 29% while YouGov has them on 10%. More in Common has the Lib Dems on 17% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is mince.

I don't know which of the MRPs are good but I suspect they're all weak, just in different ways, because voting patterns vary so much due to local factors and tactical voting.

I think the idea of an MRP is that they don’t base their figures on uniform swings applied via constituency. It’s very strange that they all vary so widely thiugh.

Another Scotland only poll tonight.

 

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

These polls come in thick and fast.. hard to keep up with! 

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I think the idea of an MRP is that they don’t base their figures on uniform swings applied via constituency. It’s very strange that they all vary so widely thiugh.

Another Scotland only poll tonight.

 

They're not all just uniform swing, but they're still taking some form of projection from national polling. As is obvious from the figures they all use different methodology but they're all extrapolating from certain things, like social class, previous vote, age etc. I don't think they publish their methodology. The ones I would be most likely to trust are those that reflect seats that have become two-horse races, like YouGov. Most Scottish seats are two-horse races but one of the horses plays a different role in each, so the pattern in SNP-Labour seats will be different from SNP-Tory seats.

[Freedom Farter]

John Curtice. 

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5111519z57o

 

What dropped SNP below Labour. 

 

Shame he didn't specify the voting intentions of the other 16%.

[ICTChris]

 

 

[JS_FFC]

Labour leads in scotland

 

Redfield & Wilton 6%
Yougov 6%

Survation 6%
Savanta tie with SNP (but 5% on last week’s effort)

Norstat 4%

Opinium 1%
IPSOS tie

 

 

Labour are probably looking good to win the election in Scotland imo 

 

[JS_FFC]

That new Survation MRP is fake as f**k.

[HibeeJibee]

 

Poll of British farmers & agricultural workers
Sample size 1,018

33%     Conservative & Unionist
23%     Labour
22%     Reform UK
12%     Liberal Democrats
   4%     Greens
   2%     Plaid Cymru
   1%     SNP
+3%     others

[ICTChris]

[GordonS]

Given all the talk of a Labour landslide it's worth comparing polling now with the same point before the 1997 general election.

In the week before the 1997 election, Labour were consistently polling in the high 40s and regularly hitting 50%. Now they're in the low 40s, regularly below 40%. The reason Labour are so far ahead is because the Tories are much lower, usually under 20% compared with over 30% in 1997.

In December 2021 there were 46,560,452 on the electoral register for UK general elections; in 1997 that was 43,846,152. Labour got 31% of the electorate and the Tories got 22%. My guess is those figures are going to be much lower. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

PS: The population has grown 13% since 1997 but the electorate has only grown 6%.

[BFTD]

35 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Given all the talk of a Labour landslide it's worth comparing polling now with the same point before the 1997 general election.

In the week before the 1997 election, Labour were consistently polling in the high 40s and regularly hitting 50%. Now they're in the low 40s, regularly below 40%. The reason Labour are so far ahead is because the Tories are much lower, usually under 20% compared with over 30% in 1997.

In December 2021 there were 46,560,452 on the electoral register for UK general elections; in 1997 that was 43,846,152. Labour got 31% of the electorate and the Tories got 22%. My guess is those figures are going to be much lower. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

PS: The population has grown 13% since 1997 but the electorate has only grown 6%.

Rather than anything Labour has done, or even the Conservatives' unpopularity, this election has been more about the impatience of the fascists. They've deliberately crippled the popular party of the right to bring them to heel.

Once they've agreed to move far right enough for REFUK to rejoin the fold, the Conservatives will already be within touching distance of Labour, so we're hoping for plenty of ideas and against-the-odds success for the Labour Party over the next five years...fingers crossed, eh?  

[ICTChris]

 

[HibeeJibee]

Popped onto Electoral Calculus and notice they predict even Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk to go Labour...

I'll eat my hatstand if it does.

Last time Conservatives 48.4%, SNP 38.8%, Lib Dems 8.1%, Labour 4.7%.

(Labour hasn't taken more than 10% in the seat since 2005 plus hasn't finished 2nd or higher since 1979 when Berwickshire was in with East Lothian and 1918 for the rest).

[GordonS]

12 hours ago, HibeeJibee said:

Popped onto Electoral Calculus and notice they predict even Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk to go Labour...

I'll eat my hatstand if it does.

Last time Conservatives 48.4%, SNP 38.8%, Lib Dems 8.1%, Labour 4.7%.

(Labour hasn't taken more than 10% in the seat since 2005 plus hasn't finished 2nd or higher since 1979 when Berwickshire was in with East Lothian and 1918 for the rest).

Yep, Electoral Calculus is worthless shite and people should stop using it. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Some of the seat predictions are utter nonsense.

Dumfries and Galloway going to Labour - a distant third at 9.2% at the last election?

 

Edited July 2 by DeeTillEhDeh

[JS_FFC]

29 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Some of the seat predictions are utter nonsense.

Dumfries and Galloway going to Labour - a distant third at 9.2% at the last election?

 

What you’ve got to note with those former Tory-SNP marginals is that is that you’ve got two parties who are both absolutely haemorrhaging votes to Labour. In places like this where the combined SNP/Tory vote is the the vast majority of the vote, that’s a lot of votes for Labour to hoover up.

 

I do think Labour are third favourites in this seat, but they’re 9/2 on Bet365. It wouldn’t be totally farfetched for them to win a very tight 3-way marginal.

[ICTChris]

 

[ICTChris]

I am currently on holiday in a Tory held seat in England and the lack of literally any literature or posters for the Tories is striking. This is a Tory heartland really and there is nothing. I’ve seen more Tory flyers in Scotland than here. Plenty of Labour posters in windows and gardens as well as quite a few Reform ones.

Theres one house in the nearest town where two neighbours are having a poster war, one has a massive Vote Labour placard on their hedge and a vote Labour sign facing the passing traffic but their neighbour has tried to outdo them by putting a Reform poster higher, which must have involved them climbing up a pretty high ladder to mount it on their side of the hedge. It’s a sitcom in the making.