Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[pandarilla]

You are having a laugh, this thread is littered with polls that are ignored by pro-indy supporters, if the poll was done by panelbase, their previous polls have been generous to Yes Scotland in the past, just saying

You might actually have a point but it is clear that the Yes campaign has more passionate and 'up for it' supporters. When there seems to be a bit of momentum the thread does become alive and that says something in itself. The No campaign are expected to win, and win comfortably. They need to get a bit of spark or fire into their campaigns and that is difficult when you are basically trying to stop something from happening - maintain the status quo.

The Yes campaign needs this - to keep folk inspired and to keep folk hitting the streets and chapping doors. Its a thankless task that Darling has - but he definitely didn't seem to be handling it well this morning.

[I'm Brian]

You are having a laugh, this thread is littered with polls that are ignored by pro-indy supporters, if the poll was done by panelbase, their previous polls have been generous to Yes Scotland in the past, just saying

Thing is though if you look past the headline figure you can normally find good and bad for both sides. This is why I never take anything more than a passing notice of them.

Was there not one polling company in 2011 who were predicting a higher support for the SNP in the run up to that election as oppose to all the other companies?

It's a point that has been raised many times in the past, but is an important one. The only poll that counts for anything is the one on the 18th September

Edited April 6, 2014 by I'm Brian

[ecto]

Thing is though if you look past the headline figure you can normally find good and bad for both sides. This is why I never take anything more than a passing notice of them.

Was there not one polling company in 2011 who were predicting a higher support for the SNP in the run up to that election as oppose to all the other companies?

It's a point that has been raised many times in the past, but is an important one. The only poll that counts for anything is the one on the 18th September

with all due respect, you need to stop quoting what happened in 2011, lightning very rarely strikes twice in the same place, but you are right polls are just "playthings" until 18th September

[I'm Brian]

with all due respect, you need to stop quoting what happened in 2011, lightning very rarely strikes twice in the same place, but you are right polls are just "playthings" until 18th September

I'm merely pointing out that one polling company quoting higher than all the others is not a unique thing. You did raise the initial point.

[Confidemus]

with all due respect, you need to stop quoting what happened in 2011, lightning very rarely strikes twice in the same place, but you are right polls are just "playthings" until 18th September

Another ironic post to add to your disaster about me being stereotypical after your rolled out the Braveheart shite.

You're saying polls are "playthings" now it shows an even footing eh? Do you have any ideas or thoughts that you don't backtrack on?

[ayrmad]

You are having a laugh, this thread is littered with polls that are ignored by pro-indy supporters, if the poll was done by panelbase, their previous polls have been generous to Yes Scotland in the past, just saying

Go and check the 1800 or so posts rather than a few hundred then repeat that nonsense.

It's like Osborne' intervention, crowded by YES rather than the opposite.

Edited April 6, 2014 by ayrmad

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Still pessimistic about the Referendum though. The polls may not be showing it but I've seen first hand that scare stories can work, few of my mates talking about how their work will move to England etc (when you ask why, the reasons are absolute bullshit but I'm not going to lecture them about it).

By September just about every person in the countries livelihood will apparently be directly at risk in one way or another. Also I used to think that the more it's fought out on TV, the more Yes will win people round but I've not been convinced by the main mouthpieces's performance so far. Obviously they haven't been anywhere near as much of a shambolic embarrassement as their Unionist counterparts but the best arguments for Independence aren't being put forward.

Get a proper mix of Independence supporters some exposure in the build up and we have a great chance. Tragic that Margo isn't with us for this one.

[BossHogg]

No suprise the No vote is dying on its arse, the campaign has been woeful, just utter guff about currency and UN membership and border control to name a few

[pandarilla]

Still pessimistic about the Referendum though. The polls may not be showing it but I've seen first hand that scare stories can work, few of my mates talking about how their work will move to England etc (when you ask why, the reasons are absolute bullshit but I'm not going to lecture them about it).

By September just about every person in the countries livelihood will apparently be directly at risk in one way or another. Also I used to think that the more it's fought out on TV, the more Yes will win people round but I've not been convinced by the main mouthpieces's performance so far. Obviously they haven't been anywhere near as much of a shambolic embarrassement as their Unionist counterparts but the best arguments for Independence aren't being put forward.

Get a proper mix of Independence supporters some exposure in the build up and we have a great chance. Tragic that Margo isn't with us for this one.

You're right not to lecture your mates but you have to engage the debate with them. We all need to win folk round.

[AUFC90]

Have we moved on from needing a "seismic shift" yet ?

[LinkinFighter]

Ad lib confirmed yes voter will be pleased.

[ecto]

Another ironic post to add to your disaster about me being stereotypical after your rolled out the Braveheart shite.

You're saying polls are "playthings" now it shows an even footing eh? Do you have any ideas or thoughts that you don't backtrack on?

They must be "playthings" as polls are often ignored on this thread, oh i get it bad polls are ignored and dismissed

And if this was a lightning strike we were talking about maybe your metaphor would make sense.

Remarkably the polls are playing out PRECISELY as they did in 2011.

It's absolutely uncanny.

It seems uncanny, but nothing to say the result will be the same,

[Broccoli Dog]

Whas up for gettin monstered?

[Jamaldo]

Ad lib confirmed yes voter will be pleased.

Nah he'll be his ever cautious (concern trolling) self.

"We can't take too much from these polls dear boy. Quite."

[lichtgilphead]

Nah he'll be his ever cautious (concern trolling) self.

"We can't take too much from these polls dear boy. Quite."

I'm guessing he'll say that the movement is within the margin of error for the poll, so we can't read anything into it.

(I think he's used that line at least half a dozen times already )

[ecto]

Results usually flow from trends indicating the direction of public support.

If the trends are the same it is not unreasonable to conclude we'll get the same result.

Of course nothing is guaranteed and I'm the last person you'll see gloating before or after the result if it becomes a Yes but dismissing the trend as you are doing is not what BT should be doing and I am pretty certain they are paying VERY close attention.

A lot of politicians are about to lose their jobs if we get a Yes vote.

On this poll there appears that not only has the Yes vote gone up by 1% so has the No support also gone up by 1%, compared to the last Panelbase Poll, so if that is a trend, it is a trend, so i am not dismissing the trend at all and neither will the Better Together campaign

[lichtgilphead]

On this poll there appears that not only has the Yes vote gone up by 1% so has the No support also gone up by 1%, compared to the last Panelbase Poll, so if that is a trend, it is a trend, so i am not dismissing the trend at all and neither will the Better Together campaign

You must remember that the rounding of the headline figures introduces slight errors.

If we take the figures to one decimal place (as they are presented on Panelbase's site), we get

Yes 47.2%

No 52.8%

As such, the gap has fallen fractionally since the last Panelbase (Newsnet) poll rather than having remained static as you imply above. Also, if I recall correctly, that poll showed Yes up nearly 3% on the Panelbase poll before the Newsnet one. Yes have improved upon the previous swing.

More interestingly, it means that Yes are now only a 2.8% swing behind as opposed to the 3% implied by the headline figures

[Kejan]

I know a guy who did an IPSOS-Mori poll about 3 weeks ago and no data been released yet. Wonder if either Yes/No are sitting on it to hide the bad news or waiting to released it right after a bounce for the other side.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

You're right not to lecture your mates but you have to engage the debate with them. We all need to win folk round.

Tbh I think its the kind of thing that will be discussed more once its page to page coverage in the direct lead up. At the moment I just can't be arsed. If there was a conversation going about whether Scotland would be characteristically better as an Independent country or in the Union, I would happily wade in and bore the c**t off everyone.

What I can't be fucked with is trying to engineer that conversation out of Alex Salmond this, Alex Salmond that and listening to people moaning about how they'll need to move to England because of something they read in a headline.

One person I've worn down and convinced is my maw. Success Don't mind boring her.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

I know a guy who did an IPSOS-Mori poll about 3 weeks ago and no data been released yet. Wonder if either Yes/No are sitting on it to hide the bad news or waiting to released it right after a bounce for the other side.

I worked for Ipsos-Mori in Leith one summer break from uni (seriously the worst job ever). You'd be asking people stuff then see the results on the newsabsolutely ages later. Market research companies also collect data on stuff off their own bat and hope to sell it later at some point. Unfortunately I wouldn't read into it too much.