Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[renton]

Is it an encouraging poll for yes? Of course it is.

However I think it needs to be treated with a bit of caution. It's still within the margin of error of previous yougov polls and whilst there is a pro-yes swing, it would still leave them with a sizeable 8% swing to make up between now and September. Doable? Yes, but far from easy.

I hardly think celebrating a 16 point lead is "clutching at straws", the bottom line is this poll doesn't tell us all that much we didn't already know imo

The thing to remember about margin of error is that it should essentially be random, so that with the same methodology you should expect a distribution of +/- swings, what we are seeing are small but sustained + swings across the majority of polls, where each swing may be within the margin of error but the trend is a sustained decrease in poll lead.

There is no way that Yougov and especially Ipsos will be showing a yes lead come the day, even if other pollsters were, hypothetically showing small yes leads by that point. It'll be interesting to see which one comes off best.

[ayrmad]

Similarly, there will be terabytes of hilarious nonsense to be brought up when No wins, from the Clown Collective on here.

Probably matched only by the Yottabytes of seethe after the event.

Anything less than 4 points will render your confidence as false.

[ayrmad]

The thing to remember about margin of error is that it should essentially be random, so that with the same methodology you should expect a distribution of +/- swings, what we are seeing are small but sustained + swings across the majority of polls, where each swing may be within the margin of error but the trend is a sustained decrease in poll lead.

There is no way that Yougov and especially Ipsos will be showing a yes lead come the day, even if other pollsters were, hypothetically showing small yes leads by that point. It'll be interesting to see which one comes off best.

Are you suggesting that certain pollsters are using the same targeting tools as BT are using for DK's?

Edited March 26, 2014 by ayrmad

[joozy]

The thing to remember about margin of error is that it should essentially be random, so that with the same methodology you should expect a distribution of +/- swings, what we are seeing are small but sustained + swings across the majority of polls, where each swing may be within the margin of error but the trend is a sustained decrease in poll lead.

There is no way that Yougov and especially Ipsos will be showing a yes lead come the day, even if other pollsters were, hypothetically showing small yes leads by that point. It'll be interesting to see which one comes off best.

It's also worth remembering, as i'm sure you've pointed out in the past, that it's a fallacy to assume that any apparent trends will continue in a linear fashion.

[renton]

It's also worth remembering, as i'm sure you've pointed out in the past, that it's a fallacy to assume that any apparent trends will continue in a linear fashion.

Correct.

[H_B]

Anything less than 4 points will render your confidence as false.

Explain.

[Mr Bairn]

Agree with HB that if no wins the mountains of seethe on here will be one of the most entertaining things I've ever witnessed.

[Mr Bairn]

BREAKING NEWS # 2
School Pupils from Kirkwall Grammar School and Stromness Academy in Orkney also took part in a mock referendum.

The results were:
Yes - 24%
No- 75%

Turnout was 355!

The vote followed two debates held on Monday in both schools with Better Together Orkney and Yes Orkney answering questions from students.

[~~~]

Agree with HB that if no wins the mountains of seethe on here will be one of the most entertaining things I've ever witnessed.

The only downside if Yes wins will be the unionists riots.

[Mr Bairn]

The only downside if Yes wins will be the unionists riots.

You think there will be enough unionists left to riot?

[~~~]

You think there will be enough unionists left to riot?

In Wales

[I'm Brian]

BREAKING NEWS # 2

School Pupils from Kirkwall Grammar School and Stromness Academy in Orkney also took part in a mock referendum.

The results were:

Yes - 24%

No- 75%

Turnout was 355!

The vote followed two debates held on Monday in both schools with Better Together Orkney and Yes Orkney answering questions from students.

Where's that story from? I suppose you will always get differing results, but, on the evidence I have seen, on the whole these kind of debates usually end up in an increase for Yes. School debates seem to be popular for no. I am sure there must be some sort of explanation for that.

[Mr Bairn]

Where's that story from? I suppose you will always get differing results, but, on the evidence I have seen, on the whole these kind of debates usually end up in an increase for Yes. School debates seem to be popular for no. I am sure there must be some sort of explanation for that.

Independence is simply yes popular in the under 20 bracket imo. They haven't lived under Thatcher and most probably haven't noticed the impact of the coalition cuts. Throwing things like the 2012 olympics making the "GB brand" attractive and you understand why the brand is attractive to these youngsters.

[1320Lichtie]

Independence is simply yes popular in the under 20 bracket imo. They haven't lived under Thatcher and most probably haven't noticed the impact of the coalition cuts. Throwing things like the 2012 olympics making the "GB brand" attractive and you understand why the brand is attractive to these youngsters.

I would actually agree with you on that, although I think those silly votes who find Team GB cool will be cancelled out by silly votes of youngsters of the Braveheart mentality. School votes will be 50/50 I think.

[I'm Brian]

What I do know is that there are some very suspect goings on ( Yes I know that is probably a poor choice of phrase ) surrounding the schools in certain areas. Activists are working hard but are finding it difficult. eg Inverclyde's YES website block. It would be interesting to see if it varied from area to area.

[pandarilla]

I would actually agree with you on that, although I think those silly votes who find Team GB cool will be cancelled out by silly votes of youngsters of the Braveheart mentality. School votes will be 50/50 I think.

Braveheart was 19 years ago.

19.

Many school pupils (especially of voting age) have seen it but plenty have not. That was the late 90s tendency but since then the Team GB propaganda really has made headway. I don't understand it myself but hey ho, that's what it is. Whether or not they'll turn in large numbers depends on how well the Yes argument is put across. Many kids will not engage with this until the final few weeks of the campaign.

[Confidemus]

Agree with HB that if no wins the mountains of seethe on here will be one of the most entertaining things I've ever witnessed.

Bless.

Sit down, son.

[Baxter Parp]

Agree with HB that if no wins the mountains of seethe on here will be one of the most entertaining things I've ever witnessed.

So much for not trolling.

[Mr Bairn]

Bless.

Sit down, son.

Meanwhile, how about the ATOS figures?

So much for not trolling.

Wasn't trolling.

[Fotbawmad]

Braveheart was 19 years ago.

19.

Many school pupils (especially of voting age) have seen it but plenty have not. That was the late 90s tendency but since then the Team GB propaganda really has made headway. I don't understand it myself but hey ho, that's what it is. Whether or not they'll turn in large numbers depends on how well the Yes argument is put across. Many kids will not engage with this until the final few weeks of the campaign.

Maybe these younger folk don't realize MSM isn't there to tell them the truth. It only exists as a propaganda vehicle to tell people how and what to think.