The Famous Aberdeen - Season 2022/23

[RandomGuy.]

21 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

I can’t believe that I’m asking this, but @RandomGuy. are you able to compare the XG for Derek McInnes’s last six matches (Hibs, St Mirren, Celtic, Kilmarnock, Celtic & Hamilton) and Stephen Glass’s first six matches (Livingston,Celtic, Dundee United, Livingston, Hibs & Rangers). You may not be able or bothered.

I could when I'm on my lunch break.

FotMob website have started putting up figures though if you want to look yourself.

[Dons_1988]

55 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

I can’t believe that I’m asking this, but @RandomGuy. are you able to compare the XG for Derek McInnes’s last six matches (Hibs, St Mirren, Celtic, Kilmarnock, Celtic & Hamilton) and Stephen Glass’s first six matches (Livingston,Celtic, Dundee United, Livingston, Hibs & Rangers). You may not be able or bothered.

[accies1874]

Should definitely be holding out for at least £10m IMO.

Spoiler

This may have influenced my thinking.

 

[Dubford don]

17 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

It wouldn't work out well for your club long term if you start refusing to let promising young players progress to a higher level, tbh.

Its shite but thats football.

So if an epl club offered way below what you think kerr or McCann are worth saints should just accept it

[RandomGuy.]

7 minutes ago, Dubford don said:

So if an epl club offered way below what you think kerr or McCann are worth saints should just accept it

Of course not.

[DukDukGoose]

Now's his chance to prove if he's in the know because this is as unlikely as they come.

 

 

[BrendanGalloway]

1 hour ago, Merkland Red said:

Now's his chance to prove if he's in the know because this is as unlikely as they come.

 

 

It would be a promotion from his current position as assistant at Brighton in fairness, be it at a “smaller” team he used to play for. 

[Game of throw-ins]

5 hours ago, Rodhull said:

The here we go Twitter account posted the xG for all this season's games yesterday.

Edit: The league games at least.

 

 

The problem with looking at expected goals in isolation is that it isn't that hard to increase xG by adopting a more adventurous style.  The problem is that you are also likely to increase the amount of goals you concede. And in terms of points gathering it's statistically more important not to concede the first goal than to score the first goal.  That's the main reason managers outside the very richest teams in any league tend to be conservative.

So it's not enough for Glass to increase our propensity to score goals, he has to do it while restricting any increase in our propensity to concede to a significantly smaller amount.  That's the really hard trick to pull off and why an uptick in xG in isolation won't tell us  much about how successful he's being.

[Illgresi]

19 minutes ago, Game of throw-ins said:

The problem with looking at expected goals in isolation is that it isn't that hard to increase xG by adopting a more adventurous style.  The problem is that you are also likely to increase the amount of goals you concede. And in terms of points gathering it's statistically more important not to concede the first goal than to score the first goal.  That's the main reason managers outside the very richest teams in any league tend to be conservative.

So it's not enough for Glass to increase our propensity to score goals, he has to do it while restricting any increase in our propensity to concede to a significantly smaller amount.  That's the really hard trick to pull off and why an uptick in xG in isolation won't tell us  much about how successful he's being.

Alright Derek min? You should be sunning yersel, not posting on messageboards x

[Illgresi]

@RandomGuy.

I want to be careful, because I know yer bellend will explode, but can you produce stats of McInnes 20/21 vs Glass 21?

XG, XGC (XG conceeded...is that a thing?), maybe even some sexy heat maps?

[Game of throw-ins]

13 minutes ago, Illgresi said:

Alright Derek min? You should be sunning yersel, not posting on messageboards x

Whoever posts it, it's a simple truth, so easy to verify that every fan should know it.  But most don't seem to, which is why managers are cautious and why fans' forums are full of people claiming that if they were "braver" results would be better and the football would be easier on the eye.

 

[DukDukGoose]

1 hour ago, Game of throw-ins said:

Whoever posts it, it's a simple truth, so easy to verify that every fan should know it.  But most don't seem to, which is why managers are cautious and why fans' forums are full of people claiming that if they were "braver" results would be better and the football would be easier on the eye.

 

There's nothing wrong with expecting a bit more than 'sit tight, direct balls in to the channels' when you dwarf most of the league's resources.

Anyway he's gone. No point if dredging old arguments up again.

[tarapoa]

That XG stat has only 1.8 for the first Ross County game up in Dingwall (3-0 win)

If I recall, we should have been 5-0 up after about 15mins and pretty much pissed all over them for 90 mins. 

Therefore I am now writing XG off as a load of nonsense in a 'yer da' type way.

 

 

[Lebowski]

No, slightly low but hardly insulting. 2.2 or something would be a fair price. 1.2 isn't a terrible opening offer with that in mind.
As it happens I've made the same criticism of Utd over Shankland who are in an identical position and also delusional. He would go for 1.8 or something now. They also thought they could get 4-6.

Dundee Utd were looking for 700k for Shankland in January. Him playing a season in the top league has tanked his value because he's no that good.

[HalfCutNinja]

1 minute ago, Lebowski said:

On 20/05/2021 at 12:04, HalfCutNinja said:

No, slightly low but hardly insulting. 2.2 or something would be a fair price. 1.2 isn't a terrible opening offer with that in mind.
As it happens I've made the same criticism of Utd over Shankland who are in an identical position and also delusional. He would go for 1.8 or something now. They also thought they could get 4-6.

Dundee Utd were looking for 700k for Shankland in January. Him playing a season in the top league has tanked his value because he's no that good.

I've no idea about January, though Covid has deflated the market.

But about 15 months ago I listened to an interview with Mark Ogren on radio and he was asked about Shankland. He was spouting a load of deluded pish about how their business plan had been successful elsewhere and they thought they could improve facilities, have success on the field and turn a profit.

The interviewer was rightly a bit suspicious as to how much acid they'd clearly taken and quizzed him about his most valuable asset Shankland. What did he think he could get for him. 

Ogren waffled on a bit about how they thought they could make a lot of money off him, so the interviewer through out a figure for perspective. Three million?  Ogren smugly replied, no we feel we can realise significantly more than that for him.

That is the level of delusion you're dealing with. He genuinely thought they would get five or six for him. 

I would say 700k is way low and expect them to double that easily, but it will be a fraction of what they were expecting and is a great example of deluded foreign owners coming in having watched the EPL on TV and thinking they operate in the same stratosphere. As is what's going on with Ferguson now.

[Highloon]

Cannot blame Scottish clubs for trying. As has been covered on this thread, they are only trying to upsell their assests, and the EPL and Championship market is barking, so worth the fishing trip. There is always the OF 'derisory' offer to fall back on

[RandomGuy.]

17 minutes ago, tarapoa said:

That XG stat has only 1.8 for the first Ross County game up in Dingwall (3-0 win)

If I recall, we should have been 5-0 up after about 15mins and pretty much pissed all over them for 90 mins. 

Therefore I am now writing XG off as a load of nonsense in a 'yer da' type way.

 

 

WyScout has it at 3.05, tbf.

[RandomGuy.]

1 hour ago, Illgresi said:

@RandomGuy.

I want to be careful, because I know yer bellend will explode, but can you produce stats of McInnes 20/21 vs Glass 21?

XG, XGC (XG conceeded...is that a thing?), maybe even some sexy heat maps?

Glass' lack of games probably doesn't make it a fair comparison yet, but I get it, in terms of league only figures, as...

McInnes 20/21 - xG p90: 1.25 v xGc p90: 1.01

Glass 20/21 - xG p90: 1.54 v xGc p90: 1.3

Or if you prefer a visual attempt to show xG v xGc per game...

[Illgresi]

5 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Glass' lack of games probably doesn't make it a fair comparison yet, but I get it, in terms of league only figures, as...

McInnes 20/21 - xG p90: 1.25 v xGc p90: 1.01

Glass 20/21 - xG p90: 1.54 v xGc p90: 1.3

Or if you prefer a visual attempt to show xG v xGc per game...

So a straight up trade. Makes sense.

[Lebowski]

I've no idea about January, though Covid has deflated the market.
But about 15 months ago I listened to an interview with Mark Ogren on radio and he was asked about Shankland. He was spouting a load of deluded pish about how their business plan had been successful elsewhere and they thought they could improve facilities, have success on the field and turn a profit.
The interviewer was rightly a bit suspicious as to how much acid they'd clearly taken and quizzed him about his most valuable asset Shankland. What did he think he could get for him. 
Ogren waffled on a bit about how they thought they could make a lot of money off him, so the interviewer through out a figure for perspective. Three million?  Ogren smugly replied, no we feel we can realise significantly more than that for him.
That is the level of delusion you're dealing with. He genuinely thought they would get five or six for him. 
I would say 700k is way low and expect them to double that easily, but it will be a fraction of what they were expecting and is a great example of deluded foreign owners coming in having watched the EPL on TV and thinking they operate in the same stratosphere. As is what's going on with Ferguson now.

You misunderstand, Dundee Utd were actively trying to punt him for that in January and got no takers at that price. Why would any club double a price neither they nor anyone else bit on previously?