Lex Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 60/40 for yes - reasonable prediction. 60/40 for no - must be trolling or on drugs. I've said all along I think the polls are doing yes a massive favour. A pollster on Behind the Numbers pod said they hadn't done a form of weighting regarding people saying they're voting for something 'patriotic' but actually vote for something else. They did do that weighting for the Tories in the 90's when voting for them was seen as voting for something unpatriotic, and got more accurate results. Have a listen he explains it far better than me. I think there will be a lot of people who've been saying they will vote yes or are undecided but will actually vote no. I think there will be next to no people who say they're voting no but actually vote yes. Could be wrong, just a hunch I've got. We will see, it's just a prediction afterall, no need for you all to get so wound up by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 60/40 for yes - reasonable prediction. 60/40 for no - must be trolling or on drugs. I've said all along I think the polls are doing yes a massive favour. A pollster on Behind the Numbers pod said they hadn't done a form of weighting regarding people saying they're voting for something 'patriotic' but actually vote for something else. They did do that weighting for the Tories in the 90's when voting for them was seen as voting for something unpatriotic, and got more accurate results. Have a listen he explains it far better than me. I think there will be a lot of people who've been saying they will vote yes or are undecided but will actually vote no. I think there will be next to no people who say they're voting no but actually vote yes. Could be wrong, just a hunch I've got. We will see, it's just a prediction afterall, no need for you all to get so wound up by it. 60/40 for Yes is unrealistic, imo. I'd go for 55/45. I have my own theory about the polls being unrepresentative. A huge swathe of people from a certain demographic (call it working class/ council estate whatever you like) have been energised and mobilised by the fantastic Yes grassroots movement. Huge numbers from these areas have registered to vote for the first time ever, I would suggest for Yes. And this demographic won't be touched by any polling company due to the fact that people who have never been motivated to vote certainly won't be on a pollster's panel. Course, I could be wrong as well, but it's just a hunch I have that any Yes result in a poll is under representing the true figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It's a bit of reverse reverse psychology from Lex. If he posts a wacky prediction of the final result it'll look like he doesn't give a hoot, when he's quietly crying inside. I can assure you if it's a YES I will be more than quietly crying inside. I will be absolutely gutted/devastated/seething etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I can assure you if it's a YES I will be more than quietly crying inside. I will be absolutely gutted/devastated/seething etc etc. "bubbling uncontrollably on to polling card" as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I can assure you if it's a YES I will be more than quietly crying inside. I will be absolutely gutted/devastated/seething etc etc. Vice versa for me, flower. But we'll both be here on Friday, regardless of the result. x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardinal Richelieu Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 48% yes 52% no according to the latest ICM poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPSAFalkirkFirm Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 60/40 for Yes is unrealistic, imo. I'd go for 55/45. I have my own theory about the polls being unrepresentative. A huge swathe of people from a certain demographic (call it working class/ council estate whatever you like) have been energised and mobilised by the fantastic Yes grassroots movement. Huge numbers from these areas have registered to vote for the first time ever, I would suggest for Yes. And this demographic won't be touched by any polling company due to the fact that people who have never been motivated to vote certainly won't be on a pollster's panel. Course, I could be wrong as well, but it's just a hunch I have that any Yes result in a poll is under representing the true figure. Spot on. That and the fact that a lot of social democrats have finally woke up to the fact that there's another option for Scotland. We're fortunate (I wouldn't call it lucky as that would belittle all those who've worked for this day to come) that we are not tied to the 3 party system. The shambles they've made of events over the last few days shows yet again how utterly incompetent they are. Don't really care what the final stats are as long as we are one more than the other. For the record though, I think we'll stonk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudge Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 You are mental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Hopefully Yes at 65% or greater. I've got £20 on it at 25/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If it's a Yes it will be by a bawhair. This overconfidence does not sit well with me only because I don't like the idea of setting myself up for a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-r-cfc Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The Yes declaration may have 1.3 million signatures, but that doesn't mean 1.3 million eligible voters signed it. Some people may have done it twice, and some people from outside the country might have signed it. Repeat signatories are removed and it is checked against the electoral register. Those not on the register can sign it but they are not added to the figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I didn't realise that, and it's very impressive if true. Those 1.3 million people would obviously be a big chunk of what's needed for Yes to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I know the one million mark was surpassed a little while back, but was 1.3 million ever officially announced by Yes Scotland or is it only speculation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamdunk Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 54% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-r-cfc Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I didn't realise that, and it's very impressive if true. Those 1.3 million people would obviously be a big chunk of what's needed for Yes to win.Just double checked there incase I was imagining seeing that! " Please note we will remove any multiple entries and that only people on the electoral register in Scotland will be counted towards our target of 1 million signatures. However, if you do not live in Scotland you are very welcome to show your support by signing even if it does not count towards that total." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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