General Election 2015

[John Lambies Doos]

Good analysis Mr Bairn

[AberdeenBud]

I'll eat my hat if they get Aberdeenshire West.

[Mr Bairn]

I'll eat my hat if they get Aberdeenshire West.

I can't see it, but then they won the Holyrood seat there with almost 50% of the vote.

The Lib Dems have 17000 votes last time, Tories 13000, SNP 7000. It could be a 3-way marginal. The interesting thing is Sir Robert Smith is standing again for the Lib Dems (many expected him to quit when he was sadly diagnosed with Parkinson's last year) - that could help their vote hold up better than average here.

You'd expect the Tories to stay around 13k, so they need the Lib Dems to collapse, but not to collapse too much that the SNP overtake them. Will the SNP get the 5000 Lib Dem voters that they need to catch them? And if they do that, will they get 1000 from Labour to catch the Tories?

The SNP taking a third of the Lib Dem vote and a sixth of the Labour vote in a seat they dominate at Holyrood really isn't that unrealistic.

I realise I'm really oversimplifying things here but I give them at least a one-in-three shot at that seat.

[AberdeenBud]

Sir Bob has a large personal following and is generally thought of as a good local MP. The seat has been lib seem since 97 I think and Tory for years before that when it was kincardinshire.

The snp have a chance but I'd make it a lot lower than 1 in 3.

[Mr Bairn]

A lot of long time Lib Dem MSPs lost their seats in 2011, although you know the area better than me so perhaps Smith is just particularly popular.

Depending on how heavily the Tories target the seat we might also see some tactical voting here.

[AberdeenBud]

Yeah I'd possibly say a tory victory is more likely than the snp. Should be an interesting seat regardless and a potential three way battle. But if the snp can win there, they can win anywhere.

[vikingTON]

Labour's campaigning against UKIP document for the upcoming election has been leaked and is unsurprisingly terrible. There's a hilarious table used so campaigners can classify voters:

Disappointing lack of quiet bat people IMO.

[H_B]

This is the reason, I'm thinking, he took a relatively long time to announce his candidacy as his expectations of the post-18th September landscape failed to match the reality.

He was probably assuming, like a lot of people tbf, that a No would have a serious impact on Yes as a political force, thereby creating a vacuum into which he could step. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, and Jim probably thought he could get free lunch-ticket off the back of it.

Post-18th September though, things moved relatively quickly over to Yes in terms of SNP/Green/SSP membership, voting intentions, momentum, numbers etc etc. There must have been a part of him at this point that regretted not just keeping his head down, to fly under the radar, and so he had to judge whether to go ahead with trying to be leader, but was already too far down the road by that time.

It would be brilliant if (even some of the less optimistic) predictions came true and Labour got hounded out of parts of Scotland with Jim left holding the bag. And then, 2016, which I increasingly am coming to suspect will be an absolute debacle for No -- hoping / fingers crossed anyway.

Why would 2016 be a debacle for No?

What is 'No' ?

[ScotlandGer]

Why would 2016 be a debacle for No?

What is 'No' ?

Just a 'far-out' prediction based on the way things could be shaping up. I'm increasingly coming to suspect Labour in Scotland will end up reeling after 2015 for a range of potential outcomes, and they have had a recent history of turning inward after difficulties which is a reflex borne of the party's former position of dominance combined with their current structural weaknesses, and then could stagger into 2016 in a further weakened state. Murphy is as divisive inside the party, as he appears to be outside the party, and, by turning inward, it will simply excacerbate these tensions ahead of 2016. A lot of this is also based on the premise that there is little Murphy can do to address some of these difficulties for Labour ahead of 2015.

For the No, I sometimes use No to describe the groups etc. on the No side and Yes to describe the groups etc. on the Yes. It saves time that way, and it's just the way I roll.

[renton]

Just a 'far-out' prediction based on the way things could be shaping up. I'm increasingly coming to suspect Labour in Scotland will end up reeling after 2015 for a range of potential outcomes, and they have had a recent history of turning inward after difficulties which is a reflex borne of the party's former position of dominance combined with their current structural weaknesses, and then could stagger into 2016 in a further weakened state. Murphy is as divisive inside the party, as he appears to be outside the party, and, by turning inward, it will simply excacerbate these tensions ahead of 2016. A lot of this is also based on the premise that there is little Murphy can do to address some of these difficulties for Labour ahead of 2015.

For the No, I sometimes use No to describe the groups etc. on the No side and Yes to describe the groups etc. on the Yes. It saves time that way, and it's just the way I roll.

Murphy is never going to appeal to the folk the Labour party lost over the referendum, but he might be the kind of centrist( ) to right wing candidate to hoover up middle class urban tory votes.

For the SNP, one danger I can see is that doing too well in 2015 could put them in the firing line for Westminster decisions. The feac ttha tthe SNP government is still popular after 7 years of government is only partly down to good, competent governance. A lack of credible opposition helps but the other major factor is the fact that the SNP are in permanent opposition to Westminster spending decisions (given that they don't have the power to reverse most of them) which adds to their popularity.

[Adamski]

I've just been looking through the betting for Scottish seats on oddschecker. As things stand today, the SNP are favourites in three seats currently held by Labour: Dundee West, Falkirk, and Ochil.

The SNP are also favourites to take 7 of the 11 seats currently held by the Lib Dems. Labour are favourites to take East Dunbartonshire from the Lib Dems. Lib Dems remain favourites to win three of their current seats: Berwickshire, Orkney, and Ross.

The Tories are favourites to retain Dumfriesshire.

If the current bookies' favourite wins each seat, we would have:

Lab: 39 (-2)

SNP: 16 (+10)

LD: 3 (-8 )

Con: 1 (NC)

[Kyle]

I've just been looking through the betting for Scottish seats on oddschecker. As things stand today, the SNP are favourites in three seats currently held by Labour: Dundee West, Falkirk, and Ochil.

The SNP are also favourites to take 7 of the 11 seats currently held by the Lib Dems. Labour are favourites to take East Dunbartonshire from the Lib Dems. Lib Dems remain favourites to win three of their current seats: Berwickshire, Orkney, and Ross.

The Tories are favourites to retain Dumfriesshire.

If the current bookies' favourite wins each seat, we would have:

Lab: 39 (-2)

SNP: 16 (+10)

LD: 3 (-8 )

Con: 1 (NC)

I'd expect that to be about right to be honest. SNP might claim a few more labour seats, but I really can't see any more than 20 SNP seats.

[John Lambies Doos]

I'd expect that to be about right to be honest. SNP might claim a few more labour seats, but I really can't see any more than 20 SNP seats.

Yip, and Scotland will just toe the line. Pathetic really

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

Good analysis on the seats. I agree the SNP will either get 15-20 or 30-40. I think it depends on the uniform swing. If it replicates the last Scottish election then all the Glasgow seats are in play especially with the referendum boost although that will no doubt be spread over a few leftist parties as well but the Tories might hoover up a portion of No votes to compensate. Despite the big majorities Airdrie, Motherwell, Cumbernauld and Coatbridge might be there for the SNP in North Lanarkshire.

I think it will depend on the UK as a whole. If people in Scotland believe Labour can win an outright majority they might hold on to nearly all their seats but if it looks like a definite hung parliament and the big story in major English constituencies is UKIP winning Labour votes then the SNP might see the huge swings they require for a landslide.

[LongTimeLurker]

Two things could make a big difference on the opinion poll numbers. Firstly, the SNP won't be in any UK-wide TV debates, which led to Clegg-mania last time around, but on the flip side a third party bounce from that seems a lot less likely this time with UKIP likely to be the main recipients of that sort of stuff south of the border, and secondly Labour's usual ability to sell the line on the doorstep that a vote for the SNP can let the Tories in, but that will be a lot less credible this time around in the eyes of Yes voters after they have been spending most of the last few years campaigning alongside the Tories as part of Better Together. Uncharted territory basically, so think it's pretty much impossible to predict what will happen at this point. The SNP could get anything from 20% to 50%.

[Elixir]

The SNP trebling or quadrupling their number of seats to about a third of the Scottish total would be a fantastic result.

It's looking more and more likely with each passing day too.

[ScotlandGer]

Murphy is never going to appeal to the folk the Labour party lost over the referendum, but he might be the kind of centrist( ) to right wing candidate to hoover up middle class urban tory votes.

For the SNP, one danger I can see is that doing too well in 2015 could put them in the firing line for Westminster decisions. The feac ttha tthe SNP government is still popular after 7 years of government is only partly down to good, competent governance. A lack of credible opposition helps but the other major factor is the fact that the SNP are in permanent opposition to Westminster spending decisions (given that they don't have the power to reverse most of them) which adds to their popularity.

Agreed, Murphy cannot reach across over to Yes. He was just too high-profile during the referendum for that. For Murphy, he must be absolutely kicking himself he didn't adopt a lower-profile, more conciliatory, approach considering the reality post-referendum. He presumably thought Yes would be shattered by this point.

I also agree that he will appeal to parts of middle-Scotland, but I could be wrong, but think this specific group will also be split into several different groups across Labour, Tory, Liberals and SNP (apart from the hard No which will still go to Labour / Tory).

Liberals will be hounded off the mainland most likely. Curtice this morning, iirc, suggested any Labour seat between 40-45% could be in danger. Fingers crossed , it's still so early, but I'm increasingly convinced something serious is happening out there.

For the dangers of Westminster, I suspect the Tories will begin to edge up the polls about end of February sending UK Labour into a cautious mess, chasing their tails, pre-General Election. We'll end up with a weak Tory minority government, and if SNP can capitalise, and successfully build a cogent SNP/Plaid/Green grouping, they can position itself, in Scotland, as the effective opposition combined with their position as the government-in-opposition at Holyrood; a distant and critical voice of a Westminster stalemate.

I fancy there is little chance of the SNP touching either a minority government of Tories or Labour whatever the result Even just based on the Liberals in the UK, and the FDP in Germany in recent years, there are few incentives for a party to be a minority coalition partner. Plus, the SNP won't be interested in helping to govern the UK, imo.

[DC92]

I've just been looking through the betting for Scottish seats on oddschecker. As things stand today, the SNP are favourites in three seats currently held by Labour: Dundee West, Falkirk, and Ochil.

The SNP are also favourites to take 7 of the 11 seats currently held by the Lib Dems. Labour are favourites to take East Dunbartonshire from the Lib Dems. Lib Dems remain favourites to win three of their current seats: Berwickshire, Orkney, and Ross.

The Tories are favourites to retain Dumfriesshire.

If the current bookies' favourite wins each seat, we would have:

Lab: 39 (-2)

SNP: 16 (+10)

LD: 3 (-8 )

Con: 1 (NC)

Remember, though, that being favourite in 16 constituencies doesn't mean the bookies are predicting the SNP to win that number of constituencies. It's just a reflection of the fact that the huge swings indicated by the polls make it difficult to predict where their seats are concentrated. For example, if the SNP have a 80% chance in those 10 seats and a 40% chance in 20 other seats then the odds are that they'd win 8/10 and 8/20 = 16 more seats.

It really is impossible to predict at the moment so I don't see how people can say they'll only win a handful of seats, nor do I get excited by poll projections showing 40+. It's all well looking at some of the massive Labour majorities from 2010 and coming to the conclusion that they're insurmountable, but the Scottish political climate is almost unrecognisable compared to 2010.

In 2010, even if they were inclined to vote for someone else, people would happily vote for Labour - they had a much "cuddlier" image back then. They also had Gordon Brown, who's a popular figure up here, and if you didn't vote for them you'd get the Tories, of course. That cuddly image has crumbled since then, though. They were thumped after they treated the electorate with contempt in their 2011 campaign and their perceived alliance with the Tories during the referendum has alienated a lot of their core vote. On top of that, Ed Miliband is no Gordon Brown and the "vote SNP, get Tories" line has been diluted by the fact that Scotland overwhelmingly voted Labour last time and still got Tory. I do think they'll claw back a few percentage points, but I wouldn't be surprised if they don't make much of an impression on the SNP lead.

On the other hand, the referendum campaign has likely alienated the SNP from a lot of No voters. It's easy to forget that they didn't win by a landslide in 2011 on the basis of their pro-independence stance, they actually barely mentioned independence at all because they knew it wasn't a popular policy. Now that independence is actually seen as a genuine prospect, No voters will be much less inclined to vote SNP and, perhaps more importantly, they might actively vote against them. I think the biggest barrier to SNP success next year is more likely come from tactical voting rather than any sort of Labour surge.

[~~~]

Would certainly do wonders for the SNP if this happens

[Mr Bairn]

If they really want English votes for English laws, why not have an English parliament?