~~~ Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 If they really want English votes for English laws, why not have an English parliament? It wouldn't be a good thing for the tories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's effectively English independence. While keeping the other 3 states under the cosh.... It replicates the system of decisions/power being available to the parliaments/assemblies of the rest of UK, that affect their constituents alone. Decisions concerning the whole of the UK are made by the whole of the UK parliament. Don't have an issue with that at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It replicates the system of decisions/power being available to the parliaments/assemblies of the rest of UK, that affect their constituents alone. Decisions concerning the whole of the UK are made by the whole of the UK parliament. Don't have an issue with that at all? I think the problem with it is, where do you draw the line? What you're effectively doing is devolving power to England, but instead of having an English parliament you just use the English MPs at Westminster. Would this rule Scottish MPs out of serving in the cabinet, for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Would certainly do wonders for the SNP if this happens ImageUploadedByPie & Bovril1418773946.189009.jpg Aye I'm hoping the Taliban pull through for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I just ran some predictive figures through weber shandwick -Had the SNP tailing off a bit but still topping the poll at 39% -Labour recovering a bit to 34% -Tories as usual slightly outperforming their polling figures and getting 18% -Lib Dems improving to 6% This gives: -Every Lib Dem seat in Scotland goes SNP except Berwickshire which the Tories gain and two holds, Orkney/Shetland and Ross, Skye and Lochaber -12 Labour seats fall to the SNP A further 3% swing would send a further 10 seats to the SNP Another 3% and they'd get another 9 Labour seats plus take Charles Kennedy's seat. Another 3% and they'd take 6 more Labour seats plus win Michael Moore's seat. Another 3% would leave Labour and the Lib Dems with just a seat each and the Tories frozen out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No, it's not nearly as straight forward as that. Votes that directly affect England, affect the Scottish block grant. If Scottish MPs can't vote on English matters, then there is no control over the level of funding. It's almost as if Cameron and his Tory chums planned it all along eh!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I've just been looking through the betting for Scottish seats on oddschecker. As things stand today, the SNP are favourites in three seats currently held by Labour: Dundee West, Falkirk, and Ochil. The SNP are also favourites to take 7 of the 11 seats currently held by the Lib Dems. Labour are favourites to take East Dunbartonshire from the Lib Dems. Lib Dems remain favourites to win three of their current seats: Berwickshire, Orkney, and Ross. The Tories are favourites to retain Dumfriesshire. If the current bookies' favourite wins each seat, we would have: Lab: 39 (-2) SNP: 16 (+10) LD: 3 (-8 ) Con: 1 (NC) I've followed on from this to look at seats what the bookies might be considering as a safe seat, and which ones might still be in play in their eyes. I looked at the odds being offered on the second favourites for each seat, and made a fairly arbitrary cutoff in that any seat where the second favourite has odds of more than 2/1 is considered as safe for the favourite. By this measure Scotland 29 safe seats (coincidentally just under half of the total). They are divided up as follows: Lab: 17 SNP: 9 LD: 2 Con: 1 I then looked at the sort of totals that each party would get if they had a good night and won all of the seats that they are currently at 2/1 or less for. At this point the picture becomes a bit muddier. For example, there are 22 seats in which Labour are favourites, but the odds on an SNP win are 2/1 or less. The three figures beside each party are as folows: total number of seats if they win 'safe' seats only; total number of seats that they are favourites for (as in the previous post); total number of seats possible if they win all seats that they are currently 2/1 or less for. Lab: 17 --- 39 --- 42 SNP: 9 --- 16 --- 38 LD: 2 --- 3 --- 7 Con: 1 --- 1 --- 2 Not sure if that makes sense or is particularly helpful in predicting outcomes but just thought I'd put it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Voter turnout will be relatively impressive next year as well one would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Scottish seat by seat breakdown with predicted swings http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Scottish seat by seat breakdown with predicted swings http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html I like that site, but I think they are wildly overestimating how well the SNP will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Scottish seat by seat breakdown with predicted swings http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html Don't know how accurate that is obviously but it's as funny as hell to read. In the run up to the referendum it was obvious that many traditional Labour voters were turning their backs on the party's position and I wondered at that time if that was the beginning of the end of Labour's domination of Scottish politics. A result like this would go beyond that, it would suggest no way back for the 'people's party'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim McLean's Ghost Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That site is bonkers. Predicting 42 SNP seats. There are some bold predictions particularly in Ayrshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Might actually stay up all night for a GE for the first time in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That site is bonkers. Predicting 42 SNP seats. There are some bold predictions particularly in Ayrshire. ^^^^^ In denial. Might actually stay up all night for a GE for the first time in my life. As well as the possibility of it being historic, the potential drama would be incredible. There may have to be a separate 'Politician's Heads Gone' thread started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Might actually stay up all night for a GE for the first time in my life. I'll probably get pished and not find out any results until the following afternoon, like in the referendum. Alternatively it could be exam time for me so I'll be up all night anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC92 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Lord Ashcroft has been doing individual constituency polls for a while now, mostly Labour-Tory marginals. Apparently he's going to start doing Scottish seats in the new year so that should give us a better idea of how the SNP vote is distributed and whether they'll fall victim of tactical voting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'll probably get pished and not find out any results until the following afternoon, like in the referendum. Aye, because that definitely happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Lord Ashcroft has been doing individual constituency polls for a while now, mostly Labour-Tory marginals. Apparently he's going to start doing Scottish seats in the new year so that should give us a better idea of how the SNP vote is distributed and whether they'll fall victim of tactical voting. Can labour/tory voters in Scotland really vote tactically? Neither can afford to drop seats. In fact, the Tories would be delighted to see the SNP clean up the labour vote as it would increase their chances of being the majority party. Some might even consider voting SNP over their natural choice if they know their party wont win the seat anyway. The lib dems might, but I think a lot of them might well vote for the SNP anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Aye, because that definitely happened Pretty sure I was the last person in Scotland to know the result. I blacked out at my mates at like 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I know i'm repeating myself . i still think the media are building them up to knock them down. in all likelyhood the snp will probably double or tripple there westminster seats to around 20 which would be a fantastic result on any other night but by predicting that almost every yes votr will back them in may and return 45 plus mp's is a great way to spin triumph into disaster for them.you wait and see what they come away with "dissapointing night for sturgeon hoping to capture the surge in yes voters" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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