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General Election 2015


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Paddy power offering odds for winner of the seven way debates (according to YouGov poll).

Farage is favourite (6/4). Nicola Sturgeon is 7/1. Miliband is 7/2, Cameron 3/1. Clegg, Bennett and Wood are 9/1, 16/1 and 18/1 respectively.

I think Cameron will 'win' personally.

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Latest populus poll data out - Scottish sub-sample below

Populus Polling Sub Sample Scotland

SNP 49% LABOUR 20% CONSERVATIVES 18% LIBDEMS 7% GREENS 3% UKIP 2%

:)

ooft, that's some turn. Any idea how big the sub sample is?

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Paddy power offering odds for winner of the seven way debates (according to YouGov poll).

Farage is favourite (6/4). Nicola Sturgeon is 7/1. Miliband is 7/2, Cameron 3/1. Clegg, Bennett and Wood are 9/1, 16/1 and 18/1 respectively.

I think Cameron will 'win' personally.

Decent odds for Nicola if she can get a word in edge ways. I think she could show a few of them up.

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Decent odds for Nicola if she can get a word in edge ways. I think she could show a few of them up.

I was half thinking that, but depends on how the poll was conducted.

Looking at the poll after the Cameron/Miliband interview debate, it said Cameron won. Commentators almost all gave Miliband the win (even Tory ones) and Miliband won when it came to undecided voters, yet the poll gave the win to Cameron. Respective of her original position I can see Sturgeon doing well, but I'm not sure if that would show on a poll.

I am tempted to put a fiver on her though.

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3 polls in three days, one gives Labour a 4% lead, one gives the Tories a 4% lead and the other has both polling exactly the same.

Basically things are tight.

Cant see much changing tbh

Labour will be utterly annihilated in Scotland....labour will hit no.10 under control of the SNP.

Middle England and Cameron in utter chaos

post-45409-14277257971963_thumb.jpg

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jmothecat, on 30 Mar 2015 - 15:05, said:

Paddy power offering odds for winner of the seven way debates (according to YouGov poll).

Farage is favourite (6/4). Nicola Sturgeon is 7/1. Miliband is 7/2, Cameron 3/1. Clegg, Bennett and Wood are 9/1, 16/1 and 18/1 respectively.

I think Cameron will 'win' personally.

Farage will appeal to 'middle England' and the odds are about right for him. Sturgeon will be painted as having a nightmare no matter the actual outcome of the debate. One of Miliband and Cameron will be declared as 'handling it a lot better than I thought'.

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Farage will appeal to 'middle England' and the odds are about right for him. Sturgeon will be painted as having a nightmare no matter the actual outcome of the debate. One of Miliband and Cameron will be declared as 'handling it a lot better than I thought'.

Agree with this.

Sheer folly to back the SNP in this particular market.

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Ashcroft gives the Tories 36% and Labour 34%.

Four polls, all within the margin of error of each other. Slightly favourable to the Tories. This is going to be exciting, I really need to remember to book the eighth off work.

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New Ashcroft poll out;

Con 36%

Lab 34%

Lib Dem: 6% (:lol:)

UKIP: 10%

Green: 7%

I was interested in the part about how likely voters of each party are to stick with the party they currently intend on voting for. Tories, Labour and UKIP were all roughly 2:1 in favour of 'definitely' voting for that party against 'maybe' changing their mind.

The Lib Dems however have over 50% (54%) of their intended voters saying they will 'maybe' vote for someone else. This is a very small sample at that level, and it may include tactical voting, but it is a noticeable and significant difference between them and the other three parties.

And of all the people asked in Scotland only 1 person said they would vote Lib Dem.

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Latest populus poll data out - Scottish sub-sample below

Populus Polling Sub Sample Scotland

SNP 49% LABOUR 20% CONSERVATIVES 18% LIBDEMS 7% GREENS 3% UKIP 2%

:)

Whilst these sub samples are all too small to be sataistically accurate it is interesting to see that they are all very much in line with the larger, Scotland only polls.

With the surge in SNP support and the increased level of political engagement as a result of the referendum I think there will be many more folk staying up to watch the results. The Scottish economy may suffer on 8th May as a result of absenteeism but I think the off licences and pubs could be in for a bumper few days. :lol:

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