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Im_Rodger

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Much as it's fun to laugh at the Lib Dems, the term "busted flush" is much more appropriate here. At least the Liberals were something once.

UKIP's political earthquake amounted to nothing. Pleasing.

I see the Lib Dem vote share increased by 0.01% in the Oldham by-election. They are on their way back!

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UKIP totally humiliated once again. As are the UK media, desperate for a UKIP win or near-miss to feed into their right wing narrative re: Corbyn and the grassroots Labour membership.

All they have left is Nigel's trembling bottom lip about the postal votes and some racist whataboutery of Labour's alleged dependence on the S Asian diaspora vote.

#unlucks

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UKIP, SNP. Breakaway, do it yourself, better off. . ZZZZZZZ. At least UKIP has a leader with an IQ over 125, unlike the SNP.

Are either of those things true and does having a high IQ make someone anymore qualified to be a good party leader?

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  • 2 weeks later...

Douglas Carswell has said Farage should stand down but that he doesn't want to be leader.

Carswell isn't stupid, he knows that having Farage as the face of UKIP and as a leader of the Leave/Out campaign is a big weakness. Farage doesn't have any room for growth in terms of popularity and I think he's much reduced politically after 2015. He failed to win a seat in Parliament and his performance in the debates just solidified the minority of voters who have time for him while repulsing those who don't. Since the General Election he's been a disaster with his will he won't he resignation and the mess UKIP made of Oldham. His reaction to that (blame the Asians) has just reinforced his limits as a leader.

I don't think there's anyone in UKIP who can replace Farage though.

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UKIP are beginning to implode I think. Carswell will be back in the Tory fold within the next few years, or will be out of politics altogether. He's really pressed at the moment, seeming to spend most of his day on twitter posting #cheerupfacts whilst on our wage bill.

Like all far-right groups, everyone wants to be the Fuhrer, and Farage is not for stepping down.

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Reckless certainly had the knives out for call me Dave on QT last night.

There's no love lost there. "Dave" made retaking his Rochester seat a top priority in May and let it be known that he'd be celebrating when Reckless was unseated.

UKIP grew to hate Reckless as well. He's not a very likeable character.

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UKIP are beginning to implode I think. Carswell will be back in the Tory fold within the next few years, or will be out of politics altogether. He's really pressed at the moment, seeming to spend most of his day on twitter posting #cheerupfacts whilst on our wage bill.

Like all far-right groups, everyone wants to be the Fuhrer, and Farage is not for stepping down.

Would Carswell be welcomed back into the Tory fold? I understand he's supposedly a popular constituency MP, but the Tories are a tribal lot; I can't see them wanting a traitor who has fled to a splinter group party, bad-mouthed his old leader and party, and then shows signs of wanting to return when the explosion of UKIP onto the political scene turned out to be more of a wet fart. If anything, wouldn't he go independent?

Incidentally I do find it utterly fucking hilarious that he jumped ship to be ordered around by a little gimp like Farage, only for his old party to gain a majority and provide the referendum he supposedly wanted all along. If it wasn't for the fact that the money will pouring in as it always has, he'd be gutted about dropping trou and taking a dump on his career.

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I think Nick Griffin has set up his own party, the British People's National Party or something like that.

If UKIP implode I wonder if any of their votes will migrate (lol) to the detritus of the far right? Certainly a lot of the BNP vote that sent Grifin and the other Nazi to the European Parliament in 2009 must've gone to UKIP last year.

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There's no real vehicle for them to migrate to on the far right.

The BNP is now a joke, the NF full of washed up alcoholics, the EDL is riven with dissension and disillusion. The career criminal and far right thug "Tommy Robinson" seems to be indent on making "Pegida" his latest piggy bank but that hasn't exactly got off to a good start.

If UKIP do fall apart in the wake of Farageicide / continual electoral failure/ a Yes vote in the EU referendum, I suspect there will be some new eurospectic groupuscules formed. The core of the angry old white people demographic, really hoping for a return to the mid-1950s, will probably drift back to the Tories, or to Rhodesia-nostalgic societies, and the like.

Edited by Ivo den Bieman
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I think Nick Griffin has set up his own party, the British People's National Party or something like that.

If UKIP implode I wonder if any of their votes will migrate (lol) to the detritus of the far right? Certainly a lot of the BNP vote that sent Grifin and the other Nazi to the European Parliament in 2009 must've gone to UKIP last year.

The BNP only won those two seats in 2009 (at UKIP's expense) after the BBC and the Guardian talked them up just before the election. The large increase in UKIP's vote in 2014 was at the expense of the three main parties. The BNP was long dead by then, paralysed by huge debts and infighting. A significant number of BNP activists defected to the English Democrats. Others joined other far right organisations like the EDL.

UKIP is a protest party, a politicised pressure group. Its main objective, a referendum on EU membership, will have been achieved by 2018. If it can't find a new objective, e.g. an English Parliament, it will slowly fade away. Only a very small minority of Ukippers would join the far right which detests Farage and his party. Some will go to the main parties, especially the ex-Tories, but most will simply leave party politics.

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There's no real vehicle for them to migrate to on the far right.

The BNP is now a joke, the NF full of washed up alcoholics, the EDL is riven with dissension and disillusion. The career criminal and far right thug "Tommy Robinson" seems to be indent on making "Pegida" his latest piggy bank but that hasn't exactly got off to a good start.

If UKIP do fall apart in the wake of Farageicide / continual electoral failure/ a Yes vote in the EU referendum, I suspect there will be some new eurospectic groupuscules formed. The core of the angry old white people demographic, really hoping for a return to the mid-1950s, will probably drift back to the Tories, or to Rhodesia-nostalgic societies, and the like.

There are lots of Eurosceptic pressure groups already and they are full of Ukippers. The Conservatives don't welcome back former members who defected to other parties - unless they have lots of money to donate of course.

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Far right party gets a few councillors or other minor successes, the media talks them up with lots of concern that they're about to take over Britain, success in the Euro elections, anti-climactic General Election performance, in-fighting and implosion.

Once UKIP fade into absolute obscurity, something else will pop up and go through the whole process yet again.

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