UKIP

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Could that apply to the SNP too?

 

 

Short Answer: No

Longer Answer: The whole point of the article is to show the differences between this independence movement and more typical independence movements elsewhere. It's an opinion piece as opposed to claiming to be authoritative It's just one Irishmans's perspective but it's a perspective that seemed interesting.

[kirkyblue2]

Short Answer: No

Longer Answer: The whole point of the article is to show the differences between this independence movement and more typical independence movements elsewhere. It's an opinion piece as opposed to claiming to be authoritative It's just one Irishmans's perspective but it's a perspective that seemed interesting.

So we should vote leave to gain independence?

[topcat(The most tip top)]

So we should vote leave to gain independence?

 

As I've stated elsewhere my opinion is that voting leave to get Scottish Independence is like stamping on butterflies to stop hurricanes. There's a theoretical possibility  that through a long convoluted chain of causes and effects it could have that result but in reality it's a chaotic system and it could just as easily cause the opposite effect.

For those "Oorselves alane" yes voters who wanted Scotland out of the UK and also out of the EU it makes sense to vote leave but if you're a mainstream "Independence in Europe" type Yes voter it's a bit dim.

 

Edited June 20, 2016 by topcat(The most tip top)

[kirkyblue2]

As I've stated elsewhere my opinion is that voting leave to get Scottish Independence is like stamping on butterflies to stop hurricanes. There's a theoretical possibility  that through a long convoluted chain of causes and effects it could have that result but in reality it's a chaotic system and it could just as easily cause the opposite effect.

For those "Oorselves alane" yes voters who wanted Scotland out of the UK and also out of the EU it makes sense to vote leave but if you're a mainstream "Independence in Europe" type Yes voter it's a bit dim.

According to the article a leave vote will mean the UK will break up, so if remain wins we will still be one big happy family.

[Antlion]

According to the article a leave vote will mean the UK will break up,so if remain wins we will still be one big happy family.

Only if a majority of Scots have voted to remain. I can't believe this still needs explained.

[kirkyblue2]

Only if a majority of Scots have voted to remain. I can't believe this still needs explained.

Did you read the article?

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Only if a majority of Scots have voted to remain. I can't believe this still needs explained.

Which is why I described this as a chaotic system

[doulikefish]

So is im rodger a tory or a kipper nowadays?

[Antlion]

Which is why I described this as a chaotic system

It's a referendum that can't really be played to favour Scottish independence, as you say. There are advantages and disadvantages to the independence cause whatever the result (e.g. If Scotland's votes sway it somehow, there will be anger from some sections of English society, but we can hardly argue that being a minority has prevented us getting our way. If we are taken out against our will, British nationalism may well be galvanised and the Uncle Tams are already hard at work pointing out how we shouldn't get our way because this is a UK vote). There's really not all that much in this vote for Scotland's sovereignty.

Edited June 20, 2016 by Antlion

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Did you read the article?

Did you register the implicit assumption in the article that Scottish people will vote overwhelmingly to stay.

There is a mathematical chance that me,and a few like me, switching to leave might swing the result at UK level but cause a dent in the Scottish majority small enough to leave the cause of Scottish independence sufficiently strong to sweep through.

There's also a mathematical chance that you, and a few like you, switching to stay would exacerbate the difference between the results on either sides of the border to make that case just strong enough. Or to spark sufficient resentment from EngNats at being trapped in Eurochains by treacherous Scots that the UK's days would be numbered.

To try and second guess the way things could play out is folly as it's just too chaotic.

It makes more sense to see Thursday as being about the EU as opposed to the UK and those of us who like being EU citizens can vote to stay and those who don't can vote leave

Then we can argue next week about how people who want Scottish independence, and for that matter those who don't, should play whatever hands are dealt on Thursday.

Edited June 20, 2016 by topcat(The most tip top)

[mjw]

Douglas carswell taking some flak from Coburn and other kippers on twitter.

There might not be a lot to hold this lot together now.

[Sooky]

Douglas carswell taking some flak from Coburn and other kippers on twitter.

There might not be a lot to hold this lot together now.

Surely now, more than ever, Carswell can defect back to the Tories?

Always been convinced that ever since he joined, he's never been comfortable within the party.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Surely now, more than ever, Carswell can defect back to the Tories?

Always been convinced that ever since he joined, he's never been comfortable within the party.

He spent most of Thursday night slagging off Farage's positions.

[Mr Bairn]

It was a bit of a minter. Farage was conceding the referendum and Carswell was making a public play for his job and then a few hours later they'd won

[Bishop Briggs]

It was a bit of a minter. Farage was conceding the referendum and Carswell was making a public play for his job and then a few hours later they'd won

 

Carswell has made it very clear that he does not want to lead UKIP. He has no power base in the party and the members despise him for being pro-immigration and supporting the official Vote Leave campaign. Carswell is more likely to defect back a Tory Party led by Boris or Gove.

[Bishop Briggs]

What exactly is the point of UKIP now?

Will they just continue to be a herding pen for racists, xenophobes and common or green bigots?

 

UKIP will seek to influence the Brexit negotiations and the terms of the deal with Brussels. Whether it can is another matter. It still has a big presence in the European Parliament, in partnership with its allies in other countries, that must approve the deal. 

[Broomhill Ultra]

UKIP will seek to influence the Brexit negotiations and the terms of the deal with Brussels. Whether it can is another matter. It still has a big presence in the European Parliament, in partnership with its allies in other countries, that must approve the deal.

They now have incredibly useful data on areas that voted leave and can target them aggressively, particularly if there is going to be an Autumn GE and rumblings of discontent amongst leavers that what they'd expected isn't happening. Farage isn't going to retire any time soon I'd wager.

[Bishop Briggs]

They now have incredibly useful data on areas that voted leave and can target them aggressively, particularly if there is going to be an Autumn GE and rumblings of discontent amongst leavers that what they'd expected isn't happening. Farage isn't going to retire any time soon I'd wager.

 

Very good points. There are a lot of MPs who supported Remain who will be very worried by the prospect of a UKIP challenge. They will not want an early General Election. Farage will stay on until the Brexit negotiations are concluded before returning to the City. 

[welshbairn]

They now have incredibly useful data on areas that voted leave and can target them aggressively, particularly if there is going to be an Autumn GE and rumblings of discontent amongst leavers that what they'd expected isn't happening. Farage isn't going to retire any time soon I'd wager.

 

As will the other parties. If a General Election is held with the main issue being Brexit, either to seek a mandate to overrule the Referendum result or hold a second referendum after juicy new bribes from the EC, Leave campaigners won't be able to claim £350 million a week anymore because they've admitted telling porkies over that and other issues. The Remainers will have learnt a lot of lessons and will be able to rejig their campaign accordingly. This is quite good on why Remain would have the advantage on a second ballot:

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/

[strichener]

As will the other parties. If a General Election is held with the main issue being Brexit, either to seek a mandate to overrule the Referendum result or hold a second referendum after juicy new bribes from the EC, Leave campaigners won't be able to claim £350 million a week anymore because they've admitted telling porkies over that and other issues. The Remainers will have learnt a lot of lessons and will be able to rejig their campaign accordingly. This is quite good on why Remain would have the advantage on a second ballot:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/

There is no way a GE victory gives you the mandate to reverse a single issue referendum vote.