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The 2016 US Presidential Election


Adamski

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Clinton has the first question at the Town Hall debate.  There's any number of directions she could go.  

I wouldn't at all be surprised if this turned out to be an Eagleton type incident and Trump is forced out.  If he doesn't offer a very humble apology in the debate, but the sounds of things Pence is likely to step down.

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For all the chat of turning the electoral map inside-out, the latest FiveThirtyEight forecast basically has the electoral college almost exactly the same as 4 years ago. The only changes are North Carlolina going back Democrat and one of the Maine districts going GOP. Even on Obama's first victory the only changes of note are the loss of Indiana and the loss of a Nebraskan district.

What that conceals is that the states that are the most marginal are changing, with the coast states going more Democrat and the Rust-belt going more GOP. In some respects this election might be a bit like the Scottish component of the 2010 General Election: apparent stagnation of overall result concealing massive demographic changes.

If Clinton can win on the same scale as Obama 4 years ago and win back the Senate, the GOP are in grave trouble. The demographics in the next 4-8 years are massively in the Democrats' favour.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37602090

"US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his team have come out fighting after a slew of attacks over his obscene remarks about women."

"And most Republican voters would appear to support his stance. In the first poll since the release of the tape, by Politico/Morning Consult, some 74% of Republican voters believe the party should continue to support him."

"His adviser Rudy Giuliani said Mr Trump may well bring up Mrs Clinton's alleged role in discrediting women who accused her husband Bill of sexual abuse."

Well thats not surprising, rather than take the sensible course of action, he is taking the stupid one. 

popcorn-blank.gif

Well at least this should be entertaining

**Update**

Not on til 2am here, shite

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How much difference will the comments made by Trump actually make? It's not as if people voting for him were doing so under the delusion that he was a nice guy, everyone already knew a what an arsehole he was, but for whatever reason that didn't seem to matter. If you thought that he was going to 'bring back our jobs' and improve your life and his disgusting personality wasn't an issue last week, is it going to be an issue now?

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1 hour ago, EdgarusQPFC said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37602090

"US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his team have come out fighting after a slew of attacks over his obscene remarks about women."

"And most Republican voters would appear to support his stance. In the first poll since the release of the tape, by Politico/Morning Consult, some 74% of Republican voters believe the party should continue to support him."

"His adviser Rudy Giuliani said Mr Trump may well bring up Mrs Clinton's alleged role in discrediting women who accused her husband Bill of sexual abuse."

Well thats not surprising, rather than take the sensible course of action, he is taking the stupid one. 

popcorn-blank.gif

Well at least this should be entertaining

**Update**

Not on til 2am here, shite

74% support for a party's candidate from registered voters this late into election season is by a country mile a record low.  He should be polling in the high 90s, if not 100%.  

Giulliani can afford to go all in on Trump because 1. if somehow the moron wins, Rudy will get a cabinet post and 2. he has nothing left to lose. And, I guess, 3. he's batshit mental as well.

I'm seriously considering getting up to watch it.  How Trump responds will be fascinating.  If he doesn't apologies, he loses his VP.  If he does apologise, he crushes the validity of all of the macho posturing that Banana is trying to satirise and gives Clinton all the material she needs to dismiss all of his opinions on women's issues.  I tend to think he's going to come out swinging, apology be damned,  and things are going to get very ugly indeed.  

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1 hour ago, Diamonds are Forever said:

How much difference will the comments made by Trump actually make? It's not as if people voting for him were doing so under the delusion that he was a nice guy, everyone already knew a what an arsehole he was, but for whatever reason that didn't seem to matter. If you thought that he was going to 'bring back our jobs' and improve your life and his disgusting personality wasn't an issue last week, is it going to be an issue now?

It's a good point.  You need to realise quite how unpopular Clinton is. Not quite as unpopular as the trolls on here make out, but really, not far off. This particular election will have a record number of ostensibly undecided voters who don't want to vote for either candidate but won't vote for the impossible third.  50% of those undecided voters are women.  Most of the undecided most certainly don't use language like that (that's true for the majority of registered voters too, most likely).  In an election which, if he had run his campaign even semi-competently he could easily have won, yet he seems to be imploding with the most stupidly amateurish campaign.  It's almost as if he doesn't want to be president and is tanking intentionally.  

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23 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

74% support for a party's candidate from registered voters this late into election season is by a country mile a record low.  He should be polling in the high 90s, if not 100%.  

Giulliani can afford to go all in on Trump because 1. if somehow the moron wins, Rudy will get a cabinet post and 2. he has nothing left to lose. And, I guess, 3. he's batshit mental as well.

I'm seriously considering getting up to watch it.  How Trump responds will be fascinating.  If he doesn't apologies, he loses his VP.  If he does apologise, he crushes the validity of all of the macho posturing that Banana is trying to satirise and gives Clinton all the material she needs to dismiss all of his opinions on women's issues.  I tend to think he's going to come out swinging, apology be damned,  and things are going to get very ugly indeed.  

Your absolutely right about the ratings, but 74% is a damn sight higher than i expected it to be, i would have expected it in the 50% region after the response his comments got. Im still pondering about staying up for it as well

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4 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

Right on cue, Breitbart have released an interview with one of Bill's alleged rape victims. I might watch the debate later too, it'll be more entertaining than any of the football I've seen this weekend anyway.

Breitbart have taken over his campaign since the GOP bailed. He's got 2 videos linked on his twitter feed about stuff about Bill that was dealt with in the 90's. Having the basis of your campaign that despite being a beast. your opponent's husband used to be accused of being a beast too, does not inspire confidence in his prospects. The clever thing for both candidates tonight would to not raise the issue, and to be brief if questioned, and move onto policy. Thankfully for entertainment value this has no chance of happening. 

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Breitbart have taken over his campaign since the GOP bailed. He's got 2 videos linked on his twitter feed about stuff about Bill that was dealt with in the 90's. Having the basis of your campaign that despite being a beast. your opponent's husband used to be accused of being a beast too, does not inspire confidence in his prospects. The clever thing for both candidates tonight would to not raise the issue, and to be brief if questioned, and move onto policy. Thankfully for entertainment value this has no chance of happening. 



Trump promised in his "apology" to discuss Bill's assaults, did he not?
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1 minute ago, Savage Henry said:

 


Trump promised in his "apology" to discuss Bill's assaults, did he not?

 

He did, and he's been banging on about it on twitter ever since. It would be a brilliant twist for him to leave it well alone and concentrate on policy and humility, but he's thick as f**k and I fully expect him to implode spectacularly.

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10 hours ago, welshbairn said:

It's the President who authorises drone strikes, not the Secretary of State.

The State Department had the power to authorise CIA drone strikes.  The FBI Report into her e-mails have shown that she approved drone strikes from her mobile FFS.

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1 minute ago, strichener said:

The State Department had the power to authorise CIA drone strikes.  The FBI Report into her e-mails have shown that she approved drone strikes from her mobile FFS.

Links please. To my knowledge she could neither action a drone strike or prevent one. The responsibility is with the President. 

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