Dunning1874 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I'm really interested to see how well Labour's list vote holds up, considering that they're now surely down to the hardcore support who'll never even think for a moment about voting for someone else. It'll be interesting to see just how big that hardcore actually is, since they're going to be the only thing keeping them from oblivion. Taking Glasgow as an example, since it was once their fiefdom. In 2011 they took 73,031 List votes (35%), enough to give them 3 AMS seats. That was with the SNP getting 83,109 votes (39.8%) and 2 AMS seats, with the constituencies going 5-4 in the SNP's favour. The other two list seats went to the Tories and Greens, who were miles back with 12,749 (6.1%) and 12,454 (6.0%) list votes respectively. Interlude here to point out that the Lib Dems came 6th on the Glasgow list behind Respect. Now that the SNP will surely be taking all nine constituency seats Labour should be looking at three List seats minimum, going for four, but the Greens and Tories will be going all out to try and snatch a second one and bump Labour down to two. I'll be stunned if they manage it but we're into new territory. Obviously not a like for like comparison but across the Glasgow Westminster constituencies in 2015 Labour took 91,280 votes. That's votes from those who fell for the 'only way to keep the Tories out' line along with those who just didn't see the point of voting SNP at Westminster but are happy to vote for them at Holyrood, so we're obviously looking at a substantial number above their hardcore support there. It's also worth pointing out that although they had more votes in 2015 than 2011, Glasgow's average turnout in 2015 was 60.9%v 40.5% in 2011, so with high turnout likely to continue you can expect the Tory and Green votes to increase in absolute terms as well while Labour might stay around that 70,000 level or fall further, decreasing the percentage drastically. Even if that comes to pass though, I really can't see their vote plummeting so badly they fall below 20% in Glasgow, Central, and Fife. If they do, they're genuinely heading to Lib Dem territory over the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivo den Bieman Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I can see it happening (the Greens taking a second Glasgow seat) for example. I think they are campaigning hard down there. Labour seem to have given up campaigning in a lot of places. As for the Liberals, holding onto five seats nationwide, actually would be a half decent result for them. I'm hoping to see Willie Rennie flushed round the u-bend of history at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crossbill Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Only three seats in Glasgow would be a disaster for Labour - they would need to be polling at about or below 18% to reach this level. Two seats is almost unthinkable - that would need a drop to about 13% of the vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Remember when people used to vote quite differently across scottish and UK elections? I kinda think that finished last year. I expect the popular vote in this to broadly mirror what happened last May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-r-cfc Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I noticed Blairite zombie Alistair Campbell was all over the TV last night promoting slab, using the same lines in every interview. His advice on how slab should go about recovering their fortunes was: "Go after the SNP hard" 😂 It was evident he had no idea about Scottish politics or what's been happening here, so used must he be to seeing the place as a wee regional outpost not worth thinking about. He was at Eastwood house down the road from me launching Ken macintosh's campaign. Jogged by them standing outside looking natural in conversation for the cameras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 He was at Eastwood house down the road from me launching Ken macintosh's campaign. Jogged by them standing outside looking natural in conversation for the cameras I noticed on Scotland Tonight he casually said, "I did a school earlier tonight", which was unintentionally revealing of the cynical, manipulative ploys of his style of politics. He also appeared to have absolutely no understanding of the constitutional debate that is still current in Scotland. He actually said, "I listened to Sturgeon's speech, about her beginning a new drive for independence. There was no vision for the future of Scotland." It was like he genuinely didn't understand or even acknowledge independence as a thing - to him, Scotland seemed only able to exist as a bit of the UK, and visions for its future don't exist if they're not within that context. I did find his desperate and transparent attempts to say how amazing and inspirational Kezia was in comparison to Corbyn amusing. Trying to get the defence of Corbyn not even bothering to attend the branch office conference next week in already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-r-cfc Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 My old school is right next to it so was probably there although I know he has an event at the special needs school down the road too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 My old school is right next to it so was probably there although I know he has an event at the special needs school down the road too Odd, as it was only a few short months ago that slab had a vocal go at the SNP for "going into schools" and trying to "brainwash" kids with politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Only three seats in Glasgow would be a disaster for Labour - they would need to be polling at about or below 18% to reach this level. Two seats is almost unthinkable - that would need a drop to about 13% of the vote. Oh aye, to be clear I do expect them to get four in Glasgow, but it's interesting to look at what it would take for them to fail and who's likely to benefit if they do. The ongoing lack of polls by region is pissing me off, makes predicting the List more difficult than it needs to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMMjag Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Remember when people used to vote quite differently across scottish and UK elections? I kinda think that finished last year. I expect the popular vote in this to broadly mirror what happened last May. Insightful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speckled tangerine Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Got some Labour guff through the door from Cara Hilton, current SLAB MSP for Dunfermline. She won't be an MSP come May; won't win the constituency and only 4th on the regional list. She won't be missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Got some Labour guff through the door from Cara Hilton, current SLAB MSP for Dunfermline. She won't be an MSP come May; won't win the constituency and only 4th on the regional list. She won't be missed. Dreadful woman - an absolute imbecile. I speak as someone who has the misfortune of knowing her a couple of years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Duncan Hothersall in 2010. What a giggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Duncan Hothersall in 2010. What a giggle. That is absolutely hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Duncan Hothersall in 2010. What a giggle. DELICIOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 An inaccurate prediction there. LIES! SHAME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrise Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 That is absolutely hilarious. Will this ever be beaten though? (Been done tae death but...still...this could be oan a Scots Labour obit!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Im_Rodger Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 SNP 1st Conservatives 2nd The rest I couldn't care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Hothersall proving what an astute understanding he has of Scottish politics, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 SNP 1st Conservatives 2nd The rest I couldn't care naewhere FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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