Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[Fide]

A giggle eh?

Are you lolling?

Are rofling?

FFS this was maybe amusing once but its a 6 year old joke.

 

^^^ ray of sunshine found

[HTG]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/public-trust-in-snp-government-soars-1-4074792

Not sure this link will copy well on my phone but whilst the numbers are interesting, the cranial detachment of the majority adding comments is a thing of real beauty.

[Granny Danger]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/public-trust-in-snp-government-soars-1-4074792

Not sure this link will copy well on my phone but whilst the numbers are interesting, the cranial detachment of the majority adding comments is a thing of real beauty.

In as much as it may help the whole Independence case then it's a good thing.  Sadly i think the Scottish government could do far better in a range of areas and this poll is simply indicative of how folk pay more attention to rhetoric rather than policies.

[Fide]

#pickyourbattles

#scrapingthebarrel

#ohduncan

[Crossbill]

Hothersall's prediction is scarily accurate if you just swap SNP and Labour, and Salmond for Dugdale, and probably whichever buffoon will inevitable succeed her after May (please let it be Sarwar, oh god, please let it be Sarwar  ).

[Kyle]

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/shock-poll-think-its-over-7587595#ZPwuBcQbCJAelTC6.97

#Kezbounce

[glasgow-sheep]

ScotParl voting intention (const.):

SNP: 54% (-)

LAB: 20% (-1)

CON: 16% (-)

LDEM: 7% (+2)

(via Survation / 10 - 17 Mar)

[glasgow-sheep]

ScotParl voting intention (list):

SNP: 42% (-1)

CON: 18% (+4)

LAB: 18% (-1)

GRN: 10% (+1)

LDEM: 6% (-1)

UKIP: 5% (-1)

(via Survation)

[invergowrie arab]

With the usual caveats about regional difference that gives

SNP 70

Tory 22

Labour 21

Green 9

Lib Dem 6

UKIP 1

I would take that.

Despite it being too close to call and within margin of error Labour should really be having kittens to be so close to Tories on list vote. Their FPTP vote is irrelevant.

Would also be interesting to see if a breakthrough Green group could see the lib dems finally killed off as the soft lentil knitting vote of choice and just ad lib left to inherit the party.

[Colkitto]

Lib Dems won't get 6 seats.

 

Labour must be really worried about the possibility of the Tories beating them into 2nd place. I would still say Labour will come 2nd but all it needs is Kezia to have a poor campaign and Ruthie having a good one. And lets face it, Ruthie comes across well in TV debates and interviews. 

[Alan Stubbs]

That 54% were obviously all interviewed on the 10th and 11th because we all know the SNP are going to lose its support after GERS.

[ICTChris]

Some details from that poll

 

% of voters from #GE2015 who are undecided on who to vote for #SP16

#indyref YES 8.2% #indyref NO 18.4%

Men 9% Women 19.3%

 

% of their voters from #GE2015 who are undecided on who to vote for #SP16

LD 33.4%

LAB 11.3%

CON 8.3%

SNP 5.6%

 

Holyrood voting intentions by social grade AB (DE)

SNP 48.4% (60.8%)

CON 21.7% (9.2%)

LAB 15.7% (24%)

LD 10.4% (3.2%)

 

Voting intentions of #indyref in #SP16 elections YES (NO)

SNP 89.5% (20%)

LAB 4.5% (33.7%)

CON 1.5% (30.3%)

LD 1.3% (12.1%)

 

Sub sample South Scotland

SNP 37.8%

CONSERVATIVES 31.8%

LABOUR 16.6%

LIBDEMS 13.8%

 

Sub sample Highlands & Islands

SNP 57.7%

LIBDEMS 15.3%

CONSERVATIVES 11.9%

LABOUR 8%

OTHERS 7.1%

 

Sub sample Glasgow

SNP 55.3%

LABOUR 25.8%

CONSERVATIVES 10.1%

OTHERS 5.2%

LIBDEMS 3.7%

 

How a #GE2015 Labour voter intends to vote #SP16

Labour 76.8%

Conservative 9.1%

SNP 7.3%

Lib Dem 6.1%

Other 0.1%

 

% of voters who voted for the #GE2015 will vote again #SP16

SNP 94.1%

CONSERVATIVES 89.9%

LABOUR 76.8%

LIBDEMS 75.7%

 

Women (Men)

SNP 57.8% (50.4%)

LAB 19.3% (20%)

CON 13.6% (18.3%)

LD 5.6% (7.5%)

OTH 3.6% (3.8%)

 

 

Sorry for the dodgy formatting, copied from Twitter.

[Dunning1874]

Finally get some sub-samples by List Region and they lump the Greens under other meaning we can't make any kind of accurate comparisons between them and the Lib Dems, f**k sake.

 

Taking what we can read into those numbers - bearing in mind the sub-sample might be small and therefore have a wild margin of error - Labour are comfortably taking 4 seats in Glasgow and the Lib Dems will get their 2 seats in H&I one way or another, even if the SNP manage to take both Orkney & Shetland constituencies. While Labour could end up as low as 18-19% nationally, if they're closer to 25% than 20% in Glasgow, West, Central and Fife they'll comfortably remain in second ahead of the Tories.

[NorthernLights]

Polling card arrived today...

 

[invergowrie arab]

Scotalnd

[ICTChris]

ELECTION VOID

[ICTChris]

Btw, I just copied those figures from one of the polling Twitter accounts, Survation probably have a more detailed breakdown of who is voting for UKIP, Greens, RISE, Tommy Sheridan etc.

[invergowrie arab]

Btw, I just copied those figures from one of the polling Twitter accounts, Survation probably have a more detailed breakdown of who is voting for UKIP, Greens, RISE, Tommy Sheridan etc.

Im guessing but would say

 

Green 100,000

UKIP 60,000

Rise 8

Sheridan 6

[doulikefish]

Seen a wee bit of dugdales speech,anas sarwar will be getting his "leader" business cards printed,awful just awful

[invergowrie arab]

forget the polls, apparently labour are getting a real buzz on the doorsteps......again