Antlion Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 What if Labour do come 3rd? What are their options? Carry on with the same people making the same tired old noises? Falling further behind to party obliteration Can they change? Do they want to change? No. They have no new faces, no new ideas, no talent and no reasons to encourage talented, aspiring politicians to join and reform the branch. I doubt think that the party bosses in Westminster really care about the North British office anymore; it's no longer a wee bung of 40 MPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Im voting Tory. Utter scenes if Labour finish third Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 No. They have no new faces, no new ideas, no talent and no reasons to encourage talented, aspiring politicians to join and reform the branch. I doubt think that the party bosses in Westminster really care about the North British office anymore; it's no longer a wee bung of 40 MPs. Wouldn't disagree with that - Corbyn not attending the Labour conference next weekend and neither is McDonnel who will be in Scotland the day before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Wouldn't disagree with that - Corbyn not attending the Labour conference next weekend and neither is McDonnel who will be in Scotland the day before! They must really be wondering how they imploded so quickly. It took the Tories decades for their vote to crumble in Scotland - Labour were punted in one election. I've said it before, but that dreadful little careerist Dugdale* must be absolute gutted she got her golden ticket only to find it was for the Titanic. I have little doubt she had imagined the old Labour gravy train in "safe" would Scotland would support her for life with no effort required. Delicious. * and not just Dugdale, but most of the branch office's coterie of chair moisteners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 They must really be wondering how they imploded so quickly. It took the Tories decades for their vote to crumble in Scotland - Labour were punted in one election. I've said it before, but that dreadful little careerist Dugdale* must be absolute gutted she got her golden ticket only to find it was for the Titanic. I have little doubt she had imagined the old Labour gravy train in "safe" would Scotland would support her for life with no effort required. Delicious. * and not just Dugdale, but most of the branch office's coterie of chair moisteners. What gets me is the Labour members who selected the same lot back in on the list! They really do deserve all they get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMMjag Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 When Corbyn and his disinterested hiding act is eventually ousted, I'd imagine there will be a decision made at the national level to cut formal ties with the Scottish branch. It will be marketed as an innovative rebranding job driven by 'Scottish Labour' in becoming an independent party, when in reality the national level are simply more interested in directing funding to key target seats rather than throwing it down a hole. Such a move would do nothing for them of course. The same thing might work in the Tories' favour in the long term due to the complete absence of a viable centre-right party in Scotland, but there's no need for Labour in any guise in post-referendum Scotland. The SNP really have done a total job on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 I still can't see Labour going as low as 20 seats, even if those percentages are correct. If you take those list percentages and apply them equally across the country then yes, Labour would end up with 20 and the Greens would end up with 9, but in reality the differences across regions means the Greens'll be doing extremely well to get that many. The list votes are likely to be concentrated more heavily in specific regions for Greens & Tories than for Labour. For that reason, I'd really like to see some polling carried out on a region-by-region basis to give us a clearer indication of how the List vote will go. Considering that Labour won't win a single constituency seat I'll be surprised if they fail to take 3 seats in any region other than South or H&I and stunned if they take fewer than 2 in those. The SNP are obviously winning a maximum of one in each region and won't manage that in some of them. The only realistic chance of the Greens getting two is Lothian and even then it's unlikely. While the Tories may run them closer than ever before they're not going to solidly get more votes than Labour on a region-by-region basis - even though they will in South, that'll probably be mitigated by the Tories holding one constituency. Their vote is obviously going to fall massively, but the collapse in the constituency vote will more than likely have the side effect of keeping the same number of list seats they had in 2011, if not increasing them. They're getting 22-25, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I'll do a full forecast next week but I do expect Labour to beat the Tories quite handily. I wonder if there's now a "shy Labourite" factor in the polls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I'll do a full forecast next week but I do expect Labour to beat the Tories quite handily. I wonder if there's now a "shy Labourite" factor in the polls Please don't bother. Your credibility can't afford another hammering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I wonder if there's now a "shy Labourite" factor in the polls This was speculated on before last May's election - short answer: there isn't. I wouldn't confidently predict Labour to finish third and the Tories climbing to second, but I expect it to be really quite close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotad Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 No. They have no new faces, no new ideas, no talent and no reasons to encourage talented, aspiring politicians to join and reform the branch. I doubt think that the party bosses in Westminster really care about the North British office anymore; it's no longer a wee bung of 40 MPs. exactly literally the only way labour go up is if SNP collapse somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Why would a significant level of SNP support ever switch to a party of Britnats, who outdid all comers in cringing Unionism in the referendum campaign? Other than a handful of 'Laebur left me' relics like Old Man Danger, no-one is crossing that divide any time soon. They've 'Thatchered' their political credibility among a solid half of the Scottish electorate. It's just a contest between the Britnats to be king of the diddies now and until they lose the actual fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I'll do a full forecast next week but I do expect Labour to beat the Tories quite handily. I wonder if there's now a "shy Labourite" factor in the polls Why do you think the universe requires, needs or wants a Scrappy Doo Forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I'll do a full forecast next week :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 What absolutely astounds me is given Labour's horrendous poll ratings Kezia Dugdale escapes any criticism whatsoever from our MSM. Whether it comes to pass that the Tories come 2nd or not, the fact that we are even talking about the possibility of it happening is quite incredible Yet not a peep of criticism for Kezia from anywhere. Imagine Labour in England had poll ratings showing they could come 3rd in an election Corbyn would be absolutely hounded by the press and BBC. Yet nothing at all in Scotland for the Labour leader given the same circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 What absolutely astounds me is given Labour's horrendous poll ratings Kezia Dugdale escapes any criticism whatsoever from our MSM. Whether it comes to pass that the Tories come 2nd or not, the fact that we are even talking about the possibility of it happening is quite incredible Yet not a peep of criticism for Kezia from anywhere. Imagine Labour in England had poll ratings showing they could come 3rd in an election Corbyn would be absolutely hounded by the press and BBC. Yet nothing at all in Scotland for the Labour leader given the same circumstances. An excellent observation. The craven regionalists of the mainstream Scottish media simply can't bring themselves to criticise the party and manager they must privately be in agonies of frustration with. It's like they're simply praying that the referendum will be forgotten, Scotland's people will entirely return to unquestioningly supporting UK statehood, and normal (or rather old) service will finally be resumed. The alternative, of course, is that even the media simply overlook Dugdale - although that too is a massive failing of critical journalism. Considering the pretense is now that Holyrood is an exceptionally powerful institution, the failure of its oppositional leader is something you'd think they'd try and acknowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I'd say she's being overlooked as well cause I've not seen much praise either. That's usually reserved for Davidson and Sturgeon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 What absolutely astounds me is given Labour's horrendous poll ratings Kezia Dugdale escapes any criticism whatsoever from our MSM. Whether it comes to pass that the Tories come 2nd or not, the fact that we are even talking about the possibility of it happening is quite incredible Yet not a peep of criticism for Kezia from anywhere. Imagine Labour in England had poll ratings showing they could come 3rd in an election Corbyn would be absolutely hounded by the press and BBC. Yet nothing at all in Scotland for the Labour leader given the same circumstances. You'd think the absolute black void of silence evident after her BIG SPEECH on QT would be proof enough of what people think of Kez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Why do you think the universe requires, needs or wants a Scrappy Doo Forecast? I'm very good at predicting these things. I actually nailed all 50 states in the 2012 election. Granted,that isn't exactly hard when you have polling data from all of them. But it's a fun thing to do and I've had some success doing it in the past. I expect to nail all 50 states again this year and hopefully get very close to the scottish election. The scottish electorate are somewhat more sophisticated than their American cousins though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob the tank Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I'm very good at predicting these things. I actually nailed all 50 states in the 2012 election. Granted,that isn't exactly hard when you have polling data from all of them. But it's a fun thing to do and I've had some success doing it in the past. I expect to nail all 50 states again this year and hopefully get very close to the scottish election. The scottish electorate are somewhat more sophisticated than their American cousins though. Don't forget the anomalies, I was sitting in a restaurant in San Diego when it was announced on TV that Al Gore had become President, that was before the hanging Chad debacle, which indyref1 postal voting reminded me of in 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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