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Holyrood '16 polls and predictions


Crùbag

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Of course we all care on here but in the wider world people outside Liverpool are going to be less fussed about it all now.

I fucked up on that one.

I thought a couple of posts were going down the 'who cares about Hillsborough ' line.

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I am sorely tempted to go that way personally.

As much as I dislike the Tories policies on a range of things, they are the only party prepared to be reasonable in regards to taxation.

Everyone else wants to spend, spend, spend. I'd agree with that if we were spending on things likely to generate further business or jobs but all I keep hearing about from every other party is that money will be taken from those who are successful and simply handed to those at the bottom thus neatly retaining the culture of dependency that we must break if we are ever going to be a successful country pre and post independence.

The culture of dependency is THE issue of our times right now and nobody is prepared to event talk about it (other than the Tories) let alone actually solve it and by doing so solve the issue of poverty (whatever that is because despite asking many many times on here nobody has actually defined it) once and for all.

It's absolutely fair enough to vote for the Conservatives in this election, I am leaning that way myself. My confusion was pointed at those who are voting elsewhere on the constituency vote and Tory on the list. Where is their constituency vote going and why?

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Presumably the candidate with the best chance of defeating the SNP's candidate. There are a few constituencies where Labour could hold their seat. 

 

 

Name the seats where anyone other than the SNP has a chance? Name them? This should be a laugh.

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Losing Edinburgh Western would be dreadful for the SNP.

 

Realistic chances of the SNP losing:

 

Orkney (Lib Dems)

Shetland (Lib Dems)

Ayr (Conservatives)

Dumfriesshire (Conservatives)

Eastwood (Conservatives)

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire (Conservatives)

Galloway & West Dumfries (Conservatives)

 

Labour are far more likely to fall to third in Dumfriesshire & Eastwood than hold them.

 

If there are any seats other than those the SNP fail to take it's a shock, and failing to take any of the above would be a disappointment for them. Obviously if that comes to pass the List will still give them a majority, but they should really be taking a majority from the constituency vote alone.

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Name the seats where anyone other than the SNP has a chance? Name them? This should be a laugh.

 

Orkney and Shetland for starters.

 

A new Survation poll says that the Tories will win seats in Eastwood, Ayr, Dumfriesshire, Ettrick & Roxburghshire and Galloway - https://rollingpolling2016.wordpress.com/2016/05/03/survation-1st-2nd-of-may/. I don't believe it unless there is a lot of tactical voting.

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One would think the latent Tory vote would be out in force this election given the talking up of their "taking second place" that has been ongoing. This is the best chance they've ever had to actually achieve something in a Scottish election - if they can't do it now, they never will. For that alone I'm assuming that Tories who might ordinarily not bother will be out trying to remind Scotland that they exist.

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Losing Edinburgh Western would be dreadful for the SNP.

 

Realistic chances of the SNP losing:

 

Orkney (Lib Dems)

Shetland (Lib Dems)

Ayr (Conservatives)

Dumfriesshire (Conservatives)

Eastwood (Conservatives)

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire (Conservatives)

Galloway & West Dumfries (Conservatives)

 

Labour are far more likely to fall to third in Dumfriesshire & Eastwood than hold them.

 

If there are any seats other than those the SNP fail to take it's a shock, and failing to take any of the above would be a disappointment for them. Obviously if that comes to pass the List will still give them a majority, but they should really be taking a majority from the constituency vote alone.

 

 

Those are the exact 7 seats I would be mentioning. The two Islands will stay Lib Dem. The other 5 I think will be split between the SNP and the Tories. I think the SNP will win Ayr, Dumfriesshire and G&WD with the Tories keeping ERB and gaining Eastwood from Labour.

 

Labour have literally no chance of winning any of Scotland's 73 constituencies. Just take a moment to let that sink in.

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Those are the exact 7 seats I would be mentioning. The two Islands will stay Lib Dem. The other 5 I think will be split between the SNP and the Tories. I think the SNP will win Ayr, Dumfriesshire and G&WD with the Tories keeping ERB and gaining Eastwood from Labour.

 

Labour have literally no chance of winning any of Scotland's 73 constituencies. Just take a moment to let that sink in.

 

 

Shetland will fall to the SNP

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I wouldn't be so sure, that is one of the toughest seats, if not the toughest, for the SNP to take.

It came down to 800 votes last year and Westminster is normally harder for the SNP. Also the Lib Dem incumbent was a Minister. That Lib Dem incumbent is now disgraced.

The SNP vote which ran Carmichael so close will be rock hard. I don't see the Lib Dem vote being as rock hard post Carmichael.

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