When will indyref2 happen?

[Fide]

Just now, jmothecat said:

 

No worse than nationalists on social media. In person the vast majority on both sides are reasonable people, considering the actions of cyber Nats it's ridiculous to suggest unionists are any worse. It's just people using the Internet for a layer of anonymity to be angry idiots. Every political persuasion as them but they are largely confined to the Internet.

Let's agree to disagree eh?

[mjw]

Did you see that shower walking through George Sq last week Fidey?
I didn't see a smile amongst em. Plenty of sneering and jeering, giving the Vickies and shouting obscenities. Certainly not a happy bunch.
Perhaps even less so after Thursday's results.
It isn't difficult to see why the ordinary punter is put off by the nastier side of Scottish separatism.

Don't go to the big walk then snowflake, you might see people doing similar things.

[RedRob72]

Don't go to the big walk then snowflake, you might see people doing similar things.

Cloughfern this year, it's usually quite a sombre occasion.

[Fide]

Are you back with us full time Rob, or just until the next time you misplace your big boy pants?

ETA: Spittle flecked reply about "BUT BUT BUT you left too....!" incoming in 5, 4, 3.....

Edited June 10, 2017 by Fide

[williemillersmoustache]

Nothing has changed

Nothing HAS changed

Nothing has changed

 

If this was a poll on whether there should be another ref, sorry yoons, you lost. It wasn't though, so this entire discussion is moot. 

 

 

[renton]

So, the SNP lost votes can probably broadly be divided into 3 categories:

1. Anti Tory tactical voters who were unionists and could no longer support the SNP

2. The SNP's own leave vote, concentrated in the North East and for whom Scottish independence was primarily a vehicle for getting out of the EU.

3. Central belt kids. Yes voters who's heads were turned by the high profile and radical Corbyn campaign.

The third group is easy enough to get back onside. They are largely '14 Yes voters who'll give the party a hearing. The SNP simply have to get out a couple of big crowd pleading, youth vote driving policies. Fairer taxes, land reform, rent control. That would get your SNP Westminster vote back above 40%. Generally they'll need to tack to the left a bit to keep their urban central belt base onside.

The second group is more difficult and a sign that, maybe, the SNP cannot be all things to all people. They can try fudging their european credentials a bit. Talk more about the EEA rather than the EU, however I think we actually need a right wing anti EU Indy party aimed at rural voters. An organisation that comes together with the SNP on the constitutional question but for different reasons and outcomes. Anybody fancy setting it up? 

That first group was always a goner. It's a miracle they abided the SNP in 2015.

With all that in mind, I think they should keep going with the idea of a referendum sometime beyond Brexit negotiations. The yes vote is still there, in the mid 40s (dks excluded). The SNP do need to be a bit more populist and radical now though. Concentrate on the central belt votes where there is the biggest potential overlap in votes, and where the SNP have to be strong if another election is forthcoming.

[The Chlamydia Kid]

Nothing has changed
Nothing HAS changed
Nothing has changed
 
If this was a poll on whether there should be another ref, sorry yoons, you lost. It wasn't though, so this entire discussion is moot. 
 
 

It's categoric proof that the people are growing increasingly pissed off with the constitution dominating politics.

It's categoric proof that the argument we will be forever subjected to perpetual Tory governments that Scotland has no support or influence in has gone.

It is categoric proof that the SNP's failure to deliver and poor record of government means more people are beginning to doubt that the land of milk and honey awaits in the event of independence.

Reversals on loss of momentums in politics are hard to turn back. Circumstances have been favourable to the SNP- Tory government in power, brexit, majorities in the Scottish parliament, weak Labour Party but support for independence hasn't improved any.

The time has gone. Enjoy [emoji106]

[mjw]

Cloughfern this year, it's usually quite a sombre occasion.

Fingers crossed your day won't be ruined by anyone sneering.

[RedRob72]

Are you back with us full time Rob, or just until the next time you misplace your big boy pants?
ETA: Spittle flecked reply about "BUT BUT BUT you left too....!" incoming in 5, 4, 3.....

Nah mate, it used to be fun being on here, not so much these days.
Still have a quick look in from time to time though, but it's usually the same old, same old....

[RedRob72]

Fingers crossed your day won't be ruined by anyone sneering.

Yeah hopefully, thanks.

[renton]

3 minutes ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

It's categoric proof that the people are growing increasingly pissed off with the constitution dominating politics.

It's categoric proof that the argument we will be forever subjected to perpetual Tory governments that Scotland has no support or influence in has gone.

It is categoric proof that the SNP's failure to deliver and poor record of government means more people are beginning to doubt that the land of milk and honey awaits in the event of independence.

Reversals on loss of momentums in politics are hard to turn back. Circumstances have been favourable to the SNP- Tory government in power, brexit, majorities in the Scottish parliament, weak Labour Party but support for independence hasn't improved any.

The time has gone. Enjoy

Not sure your first argument holds giving the Tories did nothing BUT scream about constitutional matters, or that wider UK politics is going to be dominated massively by Brexit which is a constitutional matter and now with your pals in the DUP hding May's hand, the Irish question will rear its ugly head as well.

As for your third argument, the SNP stood on their record last year and won. Big. The SNP dont live or die on their Westminster vote, and Scotland returned a vote of confidence in the SNP record at Holyrood last year, even if it was reduced from an unsustainable majority.

You can make plenty of counter points to your last paragraph as well. A massively pro Union broadcast and print media. The combined efforts of all three Unionist parties at both Holyrood and Westminster as well. And support for Indy hasn't dropped. It fluctuates from low 40s to low 50s, but we are largely still as we were in '14.

[NotThePars]

If the SNP rediscover their radical edge I and many others that voted for Corbyn, not for Scottish Labour, will be back.

[The Chlamydia Kid]

You won't get have a majority in the Scottish parliament in the foreseeable future to call for another indeyref.

If they don't take it off the table now then the party will be constantly slaughtered and lose even more popularity. But if they do when will they ever be in a position of strength to ask for one again?

Screwed.

[Shades75]

4 minutes ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

You won't get have a majority in the Scottish parliament in the foreseeable future to call for another indeyref.

If they don't take it off the table now then the party will be constantly slaughtered and lose even more popularity. But if they do when will they ever be in a position of strength to ask for one again?

Screwed.

What a second paragraph - pure conjecture.

The party will only lose popularity if there is a diminishing of support, amongst the base of 40-50%, for independence.

[The Chlamydia Kid]

All comment on the future in conjecture unless you've got a magic ball?

[renton]

7 minutes ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

You won't get have a majority in the Scottish parliament in the foreseeable future to call for another indeyref.

If they don't take it off the table now then the party will be constantly slaughtered and lose even more popularity. But if they do when will they ever be in a position of strength to ask for one again?

Screwed.

There is a pro-majority there now. There is every opportunity to secure one in 2021. Funnily enough the highest recent poll for indy was 50/50 in March just after Sturgeon announced plans for a 2nd ref. Indy does not necessarily track with SNP popularity. Once, perhaps, it did. One of the major outcomes of the '14 ref was to make it a mainstream idea that existed outside party boundaries.

[Shades75]

5 minutes ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

All comment on the future in conjecture unless you've got a magic ball?

You could at least try and present some reasoning for your claim, though.

[The Chlamydia Kid]

I did. The parties popularity is suffering as a result of indeyref2 being on the table. If they don't listen to the people then it stands to reason they're popularity will continue to decline.

If they do listen then it's not feasible in this term then it's unlikely they'll have a majority to force through parliamentary consent for one in future.

[NotThePars]

There is a pro-majority there now. There is every opportunity to secure one in 2021. Funnily enough the highest recent poll for indy was 50/50 in March just after Sturgeon announced plans for a 2nd ref. Indy does not necessarily track with SNP popularity. Once, perhaps, it did. One of the major outcomes of the '14 ref was to make it a mainstream idea that existed outside party boundaries.

The radical edge of the movement needs to be rediscovered and FFS can we do it without Tommy Sheridan and the snakes in RISE?

[renton]

5 minutes ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

I did. The parties popularity is suffering as a result of indeyref2 being on the table. If they don't listen to the people then it stands to reason they're popularity will continue to decline.

If they do listen then it's not feasible in this term then it's unlikely they'll have a majority to force through parliamentary consent for one in future.

Except that of course the SNP did anything but talk about indy this time out, preferring a bland defensive message. As I pointed out the. Most recent peak in support for Indy came just after Sturgeon announced the 2nd ref in march. I also pointed out that some of the support is from kids in the central belt who still say they'd vote Yes but were inspired by Corbyn's radical message. In the North East the indyref probably did lose them votes but not because of the principle but rather because it was so entwined with EU membership.