When will indyref2 happen?

[The Chlamydia Kid]

Except that of course the SNP did anything but talk about indy this time out, preferring a bland defensive message. As I pointed out the. Most recent peak in support for Indy came just after Sturgeon announced the 2nd ref in march. I also pointed out that some of the support is from kids in the central belt who still say they'd vote Yes but were inspired by Corbyn's radical message. In the North East the indyref probably did lose them votes but not because of the principle but rather because it was so entwined with EU membership.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

So, the SNP lost votes can probably broadly be divided into 3 categories:
1. Anti Tory tactical voters who were unionists and could no longer support the SNP
2. The SNP's own leave vote, concentrated in the North East and for whom Scottish independence was primarily a vehicle for getting out of the EU.
3. Central belt kids. Yes voters who's heads were turned by the high profile and radical Corbyn campaign.
The third group is easy enough to get back onside. They are largely '14 Yes voters who'll give the party a hearing. The SNP simply have to get out a couple of big crowd pleading, youth vote driving policies. Fairer taxes, land reform, rent control. That would get your SNP Westminster vote back above 40%. Generally they'll need to tack to the left a bit to keep their urban central belt base onside.
The second group is more difficult and a sign that, maybe, the SNP cannot be all things to all people. They can try fudging their european credentials a bit. Talk more about the EEA rather than the EU, however I think we actually need a right wing anti EU Indy party aimed at rural voters. An organisation that comes together with the SNP on the constitutional question but for different reasons and outcomes. Anybody fancy setting it up? 
That first group was always a goner. It's a miracle they abided the SNP in 2015.
With all that in mind, I think they should keep going with the idea of a referendum sometime beyond Brexit negotiations. The yes vote is still there, in the mid 40s (dks excluded). The SNP do need to be a bit more populist and radical now though. Concentrate on the central belt votes where there is the biggest potential overlap in votes, and where the SNP have to be strong if another election is forthcoming.

If the Tories act like complete fannies - and given the events of the past 24 hours - that might yet happen again.

[bendan]

4 hours ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

It is categoric proof that the SNP's failure to deliver and poor record of government means more people are beginning to doubt that the land of milk and honey awaits in the event of independence.
 

That comment seems particularly ridiculous.

It was a Westminster election, where the SNP have never had any real influence, even after getting 56 out of 59 seats in 2015. And yet they still won a comfortable majority of Scottish seats. I think it's amazing that Scottish politics have been turned on their head over the last decade. Labour and the Tories are over the moon because they won a handful of seats in Scotland and reduced the SNP to 'just' 35 out of 59 seats. It's fantastic the way they have been marginalised to this extent in Scotland.

[wastecoatwilly]

If sturgeon thinks it's only going to take 2 years for brexit shes living in cloud cuckoo land
how can you negotiate with no one in charge?

[EdgarusQPFC]

I think the SNP need to place indy ref on the backburner for the moment, maybe quietly work on planning for it for a few years and concentrate on governing, i think people are feeling rather burned out on the subject and the losses the SNP incurred reflect this. Let people see the farce that brexit is and the farce that this current tory government is and then people will be more willing to listen to the idea.

[The Chlamydia Kid]

So, the SNP lost votes can probably broadly be divided into 3 categories:
1. Anti Tory tactical voters who were unionists and could no longer support the SNP
2. The SNP's own leave vote, concentrated in the North East and for whom Scottish independence was primarily a vehicle for getting out of the EU.
3. Central belt kids. Yes voters who's heads were turned by the high profile and radical Corbyn campaign.
The third group is easy enough to get back onside. They are largely '14 Yes voters who'll give the party a hearing. The SNP simply have to get out a couple of big crowd pleading, youth vote driving policies. Fairer taxes, land reform, rent control. That would get your SNP Westminster vote back above 40%. Generally they'll need to tack to the left a bit to keep their urban central belt base onside.
The second group is more difficult and a sign that, maybe, the SNP cannot be all things to all people. They can try fudging their european credentials a bit. Talk more about the EEA rather than the EU, however I think we actually need a right wing anti EU Indy party aimed at rural voters. An organisation that comes together with the SNP on the constitutional question but for different reasons and outcomes. Anybody fancy setting it up? 
That first group was always a goner. It's a miracle they abided the SNP in 2015.
With all that in mind, I think they should keep going with the idea of a referendum sometime beyond Brexit negotiations. The yes vote is still there, in the mid 40s (dks excluded). The SNP do need to be a bit more populist and radical now though. Concentrate on the central belt votes where there is the biggest potential overlap in votes, and where the SNP have to be strong if another election is forthcoming.

Rubbish! It wiz just aw the prods voting Tory fur the rangers an that.

[1320Lichtie]

Rubbish! It wiz just aw the prods voting Tory fur the rangers an that.

Well, there was that as well yes.

[NotThePars]

I, and most of my mates, belong to the third group. I'll still vote for an independent Scotland regardless of whether Corbyn ends up PM.

[DI Bruce Robertson]

First time for everything I guess! But other than a specific date sometime in the future (who knows what could happen in the next 8 hours let alone 8 years), I agree completely with that strategy, first thing to establish is the right for Holyrood to call a referendum at a time of their choosing.

[AyrExile]

17 hours ago, oaksoft said:

I don't know what Sturgeon is waiting for.

She should simply make the announcement that she has heard the views of the voting public and as a result will now commit to moving IndyRef2 to 2025 at least.

She should also say that she is refocussing on securing Holyrood's right to determine the exact date and limiting the argument to that aim.

That will neuter Davidson overnight.

I can see no other sensible path here. She fucked up hugely going too early but she can recover it very quickly.

Although that seems the sensible option would she not lose a decent chunk of her supporters through this? The SNP have attracted most of the rabble who make the most noise and want everything done tomorrow. With Labour getting its act together they could steal a lot of that vote.

[git-intae-thum]

On 10/06/2017 at 10:14, The Chlamydia Kid said:

I did. The parties popularity is suffering as a result of indeyref2 being on the table. If they don't listen to the people then it stands to reason they're popularity will continue to decline.

If they do listen then it's not feasible in this term then it's unlikely they'll have a majority to force through parliamentary consent for one in future.

Feel a bit dirty quoting an obvious britnat troll.

However this is important.

The above is a lie that is being propagated by the unionist establishment and it needs addressed

There is absolutely no evidence that indyref2 has had any effect on the snp's popularity.

Instead unionists are still bricking it at the possibility of indyref2 and are throwing everything to get it taken off the table.

The other night wasn't the best night for the snp but it was nothing to do with indyref2. And they still won a whopping majority.

There were 3 main factors imo

1) lower than usual turnout for a general election. I think it fair to speculate that lots of normally snp minded fks just didn't see the relevance and/or lacked motivation for this election

2) The Corbyn effect giving slab a totally undeserved boost from many pro imdependence folk switching

3) Concerted tactical voting by unionist yokels in the sticks constituencies.

Support for indyref2 will still be sitting around the 50% mark and will only grow as brexit unfolds.

What we can conclude from the general election is that the snp vote is the likely core yes vote. Therefore there is now a hardcore of 40% of the public that will vote yes regardless.

Further as has been evidenced on this forum, there are lots of voters for "unionist" parties whose vote for them was sod all to do with the union, and they would vote yes.

The unionists leaders know all this and are desperate to delay. What we have is a concerted effort by them and their media lackeys to fillibuster the issue by constantly talking about it and doing so in derogatory terms. 

[The Chlamydia Kid]

Feel a bit dirty quoting an obvious britnat troll.

However this is important.

The above is a lie that is being propagated by the unionist establishment and it needs addressed

There is absolutely no evidence that indyref2 has had any effect on the snp's popularity.

Instead unionists are still bricking it at the possibility of indyref2 and are throwing everything to get it taken off the table.

The other night wasn't the best night for the snp but it was nothing to do with indyref2. And they still won a whopping majority.

There were 3 main factors imo

1) lower than usual turnout for a general election. I think it fair to speculate that lots of normally snp minded fks just didn't see the relevance and/or lacked motivation for this election

2) The Corbyn effect giving slab a totally undeserved boost from many pro imdependence folk switching

3) Concerted tactical voting by unionist yokels in the sticks constituencies.

Support for indyref2 will still be sitting around the 50% mark and will only grow as brexit unfolds.

What we can conclude from the general election is that the snp vote is the likely core yes vote. Therefore there is now a hardcore of 40% of the public that will vote yes regardless.

Further as has been evidenced on this forum, there are lots of voters for "unionist" parties whose vote for them was sod all to do with the union, and they would vote yes.

The unionists leaders know all this and are desperate to delay. What we have is a concerted effort by them and their media lackeys to fillibuster the issue by constantly talking about it and doing so in derogatory terms. 

No bother. Keep it on the table and we will see what happens. I genuinely hope she does keep it on because there is absolutely no doubt in my mind it is alienating voters. I personally know 4 Yes voting SNP voters who never voted or never voted for the SNP as they were sick of hearing her demands for 'another divisive independence referendum' and who were crying out for her to 'get on with the day job'.

 

I know personal anecdotes mean nothing, but everything else suggests that story is not uncommon.

[Monkey Tennis]

May's decision to call this election was obviously comically disastrous.

It was based firmly on Corbyn's perceived weakness.  In there too though, was a desire to call Sturgeon's bluff, given that she'd just explicitly moved towards another referendum. 

That part of it worked.  

[git-intae-thum]

Just now, The Chlamydia Kid said:

No bother. Keep it on the table and we will see what happens. I genuinely hope she does keep it on because there is absolutely no doubt in my mind it is alienating voters. I personally know 4 Yes voting SNP voters who never voted or never voted for the SNP as they were sock of hearing her demands for 'another divisive independence referendum' and who were crying out for her to 'get on with the day job'.

Thanks. You are making my point.

These folk didn't vote snp at the general election. 

They will vote yes at indyref2.

No wonder yoons are so desperate to get the issue brushed aside.

For what its worth, I don't see the reason to rush it, but it is going to happen.

[Shades75]

9 minutes ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

No bother. Keep it on the table and we will see what happens. I genuinely hope she does keep it on because there is absolutely no doubt in my mind it is alienating voters. I personally know 4 Yes voting SNP voters who never voted or never voted for the SNP as they were sick of hearing her demands for 'another divisive independence referendum' and who were crying out for her to 'get on with the day job'.

 

I know personal anecdotes mean nothing, but everything else suggests that story is not uncommon.

"Divisive independence referendum".

There it is again.

If there's been a more moronic line, parroted by unionists in Scotland, I've not heard it.

Do none of you wonder how Kezia, Willie and Ruth came up with the very same phrase?

[pandarilla]

Thanks. You are making my point.
These folk didn't vote snp at the general election. 
They will vote yes at indyref2.
No wonder yoons are so desperate to get the issue brushed aside.
For what its worth, I don't see the reason to rush it, but it is going to happen.

I'm a yes voter and I'm uncomfortable with the fact that there could be a second referendum so soon.

This definitely affects my motivation to vote snp (although I did) - but I think that's an issue. There's an aggressive minority in the snp pushing for a second referendum and I think that would be a big mistake.

I'd also say that although 40% definitely want independence - pushing for a second referendum is alienating huge swathes of the 60%. That's not a sensible strategy.

I'd like to see sturgeon taking indyref2 off the table.

[NotThePars]

If you're gonna invent fictional yes supporting mates probs best to have them speaking in something that isn't unionist buzzwords.

[pandarilla]

If you're gonna invent fictional yes supporting mates probs best to have them speaking in something that isn't unionist buzzwords.

Was that aimed at my post?

[NotThePars]

Was that aimed at my post?

Naw. TCK. I don't even disagree with the point he made but if he's gonnae invent mates then make it a bit less contrived.

[mjw]

I personally know 4 Yes voting SNP voters who never voted or never voted for the SNP as they were sick of hearing her demands for 'another divisive independence referendum' and who were crying out for her to 'get on with the day job'.
 
I know personal anecdotes mean nothing, but everything else suggests that story is not uncommon.

Was that aimed at my post?

This one,wasn't it?