When will indyref2 happen?

[Colkitto]

1 hour ago, Londonwell said:

This already happened though.

Request was withdrawn and the UK gov never officially replied

[Colkitto]

1 hour ago, Londonwell said:

It ain't down to Blackford to ask for a section 30 unfortunately and it ain't down to Sturgeon to grant one, even more unfortunately.   

Nobody said it was down to him. He's simply stating what can or will happen. Sturgeon will request one...then we see what happens from there..

[Londonwell]

20 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Request was withdrawn and the UK gov never officially replied

My point more was “now is not the time” didn’t have any effect on polling for Indy at that time. Brexit May have changed that, guess we’ll have to wait and see.

The question does remain however, what does the SNP do if/when a section 30 is rejected? 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Londonwell

[Frank Grimes]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

6 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

The indyref now lot are getting impatient because Sturgeon is being coy about her strategy.

That is because her strategy is to wait for a hard brexit to damage the livelihoods of enough people that she can win it comfortably, which for obvious reasons she cannot just out and say so.

We will still vote no, it's called Stockholm syndrome..... Look it up.

Probably 

Its surprised and disheartened me to see how hardernerd the Unionist side has become since the Brexit vote

No matter what pish is ever thrown out way, there is probably NEVER changing about 40-45% of the populations mind

If Yes ever wins a referendum in the next few years it will be bawhair stuff 

[tirso]

My point more was “now is not the time” didn’t have any effect on polling for Indy at that time. Brexit May have changed that, guess we’ll have to wait and see.
The question does remain however, what does the SNP do if/when a section 30 is rejected? 

That's very true but quite different from saying it's already been rejected.

Both the UK and Scottish governments have to try and predict how the Scottish people would react to that.

Regardless of the legalities, which are pretty muddy when it comes to self determination, with strong legal cases on both sides; it'll be the reaction of the Scottish people whether the vote happens or not. A majority vote in parliament after a commitment is a pretty clear mandate. It could only really be made stronger if the SNP /Green vote in an election was 50+% on a similar commitment. In those circumstances I think it inconceivable the UK govt would reject.

[Detournement]

29 minutes ago, Frank Grimes said:

If Yes ever wins a referendum in the next few years it will be bawhair stuff 

Followed immediately by a campaign for another referendum on the deal quoting everything Sturgeon has said on Brexit.

[tirso]

That's very true but quite different from saying it's already been rejected.

Both the UK and Scottish governments have to try and predict how the Scottish people would react to that.

Regardless of the legalities, which are pretty muddy when it comes to self determination, with strong legal cases on both sides; it'll be the reaction of the Scottish people whether the vote happens or not. A majority vote in parliament after a commitment is a pretty clear mandate. It could only really be made stronger if the SNP /Green vote in an election was 50+% on a similar commitment. In those circumstances I think it inconceivable the UK govt would reject.

ETA I think the idea that only the UK government has the right to call an independence vote is a minority view. Every poll on who should have the right points to the Scots electorate and parliament as the preference of the voters.

[Detournement]

The Tories will just follow the Spanish example. They won't have to lock anyone up as Scots won't take to the streets.

[BawWatchin]

5 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Followed immediately by a campaign for another referendum on the deal quoting everything Sturgeon has said on Brexit.

No deal. Only a hard break from brexit-england will do.

[BawWatchin]

3 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

You can't win over people who read the Sunday Post and watch BBC news when you're circlejerking on twitter. Demographic.... progress will proably help.

I agree. Let's get breeding.

[NotThePars]

My point more was “now is not the time” didn’t have any effect on polling for Indy at that time. Brexit May have changed that, guess we’ll have to wait and see.
The question does remain however, what does the SNP do if/when a section 30 is rejected? 

I don’t think that response would cause much outrage as it doesn’t explicitly rule one out in the future and plays to people’s belief that you can’t negotiate more than one thing at a time.

[Londonwell]

If the SNP has to wait on yet another mandate from a general election(under normal election timeframes) or for consistent polling evidence in support of indy, then there won’t be a section 30 granted for quite while I’m afraid.

It’s a tough situation for the SNP, people who are desperate for indy ( and I include myself in that) don’t seem to have a feasible plan to bring a ref about other than the #UseTheMandate #DissovleTheUnion

A general election pronto would be a complete gift to the Yessers imo.

Edited January 21, 2019 by Londonwell

[Colkitto]

5 minutes ago, Londonwell said:

If the SNP has to wait on yet another mandate from a general election(under normal election timeframes) or for consistent polling evidence in support of indy, then there won’t be a section 30 granted for quite while I’m afraid.

It’s a tough situation for the SNP, people who are desperate for indy ( and I include myself in that) don’t seem to have a feasible plan to bring a ref about other than the #UseTheMandate #DissovleTheUnion

A general election pronto would be a complete gift to the Yessers imo.

Think a lot will depend on how the Scottish electorate react to the refusal by a Tory government to the democratic will of the Scottish parliament. 

That will determine how much mileage you get out of the "grievance" 

I really hope the SNP use "obstructionism" as a tactic at Westminster as soon as the Section 30 order is refused. Bring Westminster to a standstill with total  non co-operation and disruption.

There is going to be a lot of Legislation going to be going through Parliament because of Brexit. Disrupt the whole thing until the people in the rUK get angry at Legislation not getting passed in time.

Basically Charles Stewart Parnell style

[John Lambies Doos]

ETA I think the idea that only the UK government has the right to call an independence vote is a minority view. Every poll on who should have the right points to the Scots electorate and parliament as the preference of the voters.

Tell that to the Catalans

[I'm Brian]

5 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

SNP do a lot on Scotland's Voice Being Ignored which is fine to an extent but people give more of a shit about I Can Buy Vegetables In The Shops.

SNP's task is to sell the vision that preserves and enhances that post brexit. They should be making surreptitious contacts in Ireland and rest of EU who will be vocal and visible supporters of this vision in order to sell it to voters.

I say this as an SNP member. The first thing the SNP has to do in any referendum campaign is get away from the vision that it is an SNP thing. Yes Scotland really struggled with this in 2014

Like it or not, to many the SNP is a toxic brand. They need to wheel out a few relatively big hitters from the other parties. I have no doubt there will be some lined up, particularly if the Brexit shambles shafts Scotland.

Edited January 22, 2019 by I'm Brian

[BawWatchin]

3 hours ago, I'm Brian said:

I say this as an SNP member. The first thing the SNP has to do in any referendum campaign is get away from the vision that it is an SNP thing. Yes Scotland really struggled with this in 2014

Like it or not, to many the SNP is a toxic brand. They need to wheel out a few relatively big hitters from the other parties. I have no doubt there will be some lined up, particularly if the Brexit shambles shafts Scotland.

The "big hitters" are also "big payers". They'll fall into line like they did in 2014.

[ICTJohnboy]

12 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

SNP do a lot on Scotland's Voice Being Ignored which is fine to an extent but people give more of a shit about I Can Buy Vegetables In The Shops.

SNP's task is to sell the vision that preserves and enhances that post brexit. They should be making surreptitious contacts in Ireland and rest of EU who will be vocal and visible supporters of this vision in order to sell it to voters.

I have to agree with that.

I've just got back from a weekend in Dublin, where the first thing that struck me was the friendliness of the locals. There's also a feeling of prosperity in and around the city in that shops, bars and restaurants all appeared to be busy and thriving. 

I was further impressed on speaking to several pub regulars that all them, while obviously happy to be regarded as Irish first and foremost, also describe themselves as proud Europeans. That's a phrase you're unlikely to hear in pubs, etc, in the North West of England, and, I suspect in most regions of England, where most will describe themselves as English or British. A lot of them struggle to differentiate between English and British - it means the same thing as far as they are concerned.

It's not always wise to generalise, but I do believe the Scots and the English have widely differing senses of values. I'll be very happy in the future to be regarded as Scottish but also a proud European. 

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by ICTJohnboy

[John Lambies Doos]

I have to agree with that.
I've just got back from a weekend in Dublin, where the first thing that struck me was the friendliness of the locals. There's also a feeling of prosperity in and around the city in that shops, bars and restaurants all appeared to be busy and thriving. 
I was further impressed on speaking to several pub regulars that all them, while obviously happy to be regarded as Irish first and foremost, also describe themselves as proud Europeans. That's a phrase you're unlikely to hear in pubs, etc, in the North West of England, and, I suspect in most regions of England, where most will describe themselves as English or British. A lot of them struggle to differentiate between English and British - it means the same thing as far as they are concerned.
It's not always wise to generalise, but I do believe the Scots and the English have widely differing senses of values. I'll be very happy in the future to be regarded as Scottish but also a proud European. 
 
 
 

Good post.
I'm in Ireland quite a lot due to family connections as well as regular summer holidays in France. What's very striking in both countries is the amount of European Union flags that are flown. They are simply everywhere on many buildings. Where you see their respective tri colour, you also see the EU flag. Both countries are certainly very proud to be a European as am I.
On a second note, the Unionist spin in Scotland will be quite happy to paint Eire as a basket case with a failing currency (euro), when in actual fact Ireland is booming, the euro is strong and it's GDP per capita is high. Not to mention future growth predictions. And it does all this without any oil.....

[DublinMagyar]

I have to agree with that.
I've just got back from a weekend in Dublin, where the first thing that struck me was the friendliness of the locals. There's also a feeling of prosperity in and around the city in that shops, bars and restaurants all appeared to be busy and thriving. 
I was further impressed on speaking to several pub regulars that all them, while obviously happy to be regarded as Irish first and foremost, also describe themselves as proud Europeans. That's a phrase you're unlikely to hear in pubs, etc, in the North West of England, and, I suspect in most regions of England, where most will describe themselves as English or British. A lot of them struggle to differentiate between English and British - it means the same thing as far as they are concerned.
It's not always wise to generalise, but I do believe the Scots and the English have widely differing senses of values. I'll be very happy in the future to be regarded as Scottish but also a proud European. 
 
 
 

You're welcome

[Gaz FFC]

7 hours ago, I'm Brian said:

I say this as an SNP member. The first thing the SNP has to do in any referendum campaign is get away from the vision that it is an SNP thing. Yes Scotland really struggled with this in 2014

Like it or not, to many the SNP is a toxic brand. They need to wheel out a few relatively big hitters from the other parties. I have no doubt there will be some lined up, particularly if the Brexit shambles shafts Scotland.

What is the opinion on the SNP playing fair to win this?

From a personal point of view I'm sickened that Better together told some whoppers in 2014 (see the vow) and that Brexit just wrote graffiti on the side of a bus to win, before we even talk about spending.

The SNP and Yes has a problem with doing things the right way I say it's May be time to buy some votes with promises where it counts.

Tell the pensioners they will receive bigger pensions in an independent Scotland.

Tell the poor we will scrap UC and pay a better benefit system.

Tell the working class about the better/fairer income tax system.

As a big hitter with all this renewable energy make it clear we can pay less for utility bills up here than our poor racist cousins down in megadebt land.

Make it clear we can all be better off whilst Better together cannot be trusted having failed to deliver on any 2014 promises and having taken us out of Europe after telling us they were the safe bet for staying in.