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When will indyref2 happen?


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Indyref2  

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1 hour ago, Rodhull said:

Didn't he claim a new currency would need about 300 billion before? I can't imagine he's in favour of any circumstance for Independence.

No, that was spin by journalists who didn't read what he wrote. From what I remember, the "£300 billion" figure was if the iScotland took an approach that tied the Scottish £ to the UK £ (the direct comparison was Hong Kong which pegs the HKD to the USD and has hundreds of billions of reserves). The more realistic figure was £30 billion of forex reserves, like Norway.

In a blog post from 2014:

Quote

This then leaves a separate currency as the only viable economic option for an independent Scotland... As we have noted, an independent Scotland is unlikely to have sufficient foreign exchange rates to run a fixed exchange rate regime and so the exchange rate of an independent would, at least initially, have to be free floating; that is, determined by the interaction of the demand and supply for its currency on international markets.

An independent Scottish Government that has no track record in raising the revenues to pay for its expenditure would need in the transition period to run fiscal surpluses to create the required credibility in international capital markets. In other words, the government of an independent Scotland would need to run an austerity programme with all of the implications this would have for taxation and public spending. However, once the Scottish Government’s reputational credibility had been established in international markets it would then be able to design an optimal exchange rate policy – one designed for both its oil and non-oil sectors - such as the kind of managed float used by Norway. But how long would the transition be and how bearable would it be to residents of Scotland?

But yeah, he's not going to be backing independence any time soon. However, he's literally argued that an independent currency is Scotland's best option. 

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But yeah, he's not going to be backing independence any time soon. However, he's literally argued that an independent currency is Scotland's best option. 

30 billion of reserves. How much reserves does the BOE hold ? Do they really want us changing our share of the reserves and the debt to another currency so soon after a yes vote. Sterlingisation is the best option short term for both sides....they just won't admit it before a vote.

 

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9 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

30 billion of reserves. How much reserves does the BOE hold ? Do they really want us changing our share of the reserves and the debt to another currency so soon after a yes vote. Sterlingisation is the best option short term for both sides....they just won't admit it before a vote.

 

Between them HMG and BoE had $198bn of reserves in December 2018. So our share would be $16bn-ish.

 

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7 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:
14 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:
Between them HMG and BoE had $198bn of reserves in December 2018. So our share would be $16bn-ish.
 

Does that include gold and foreign currency ?

These are the international reserves.

Edit: Gold is included.

Edited by Tibbermoresaint
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Indeed not. But ,unfortunately, we voted as the UK, hellish though the result was.

Even with that argument one could argue that no attempt has been made to keep the 48% Remain vote happy.

 

No attempt at soft Brexit.

 

Any attempt to soften Brexit by the SNP has been ignored.

 

And it certainly isn't democratic to constantly avoid the debate or thwart the debate as May has done.

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Even with that argument one could argue that no attempt has been made to keep the 48% Remain vote happy.

 

No attempt at soft Brexit.

 

Any attempt to soften Brexit by the SNP has been ignored.

 

And it certainly isn't democratic to constantly avoid the debate or thwart the debate as May has done.

 

 

 

IIBH, I never thought it was possible for the Tories to return a soft Brexit, this whole shitstorm started because of the Brexiteers in the Tory party so there's no way that a Brexit not acceptable to them was going to be happening, we've had May kicking the can around aimlessly for years now knowing that this was going to be the outcome.

 

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IIBH, I never thought it was possible for the Tories to return a soft Brexit, this whole shitstorm started because of the Brexiteers in the Tory party so there's no way that a Brexit not acceptable to them was going to be happening, we've had May kicking the can around aimlessly for years now knowing that this was going to be the outcome.

 

The ERG are a relatively small group who have more power than their size merits - the ease with which May defeated them when they challenged her shows she should have stood up to them 2 and a half years ago.

 

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11 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The ERG are a relatively small group who have more power than their size merits - the ease with which May defeated them when they challenged her shows she should have stood up to them 2 and a half years ago.

 

Did she really defeat them, she's not been able to do a fart without conferring with them 1st.

Edited by ayrmad
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The Euro is a suicide note.
Scotland could easily have it's own currency.
 
Scots have done some great deeds over the centuries but when it comes to money we have a reputation for being generally cautious. When Project Fear MK2 kicks in and whataboutery reigns supreme a Scottish currency will be hard to sell to a big chunk of voters.

Euro a better and more persuasive option IMO .
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8 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

It's bizarre to say the least. The votes have always been there to beat them but she's always been too feart to take them on.

 

It's just my opinion but I've never felt any Tory PM could return a soft Brexit without the Tories splintering, IMHO it's all just been a big game designed to run down the clock whilst kidding the population at large on that a soft Brexit was an option, anything involving freedom of movement was not an option to the Tories at any point and being in the Customs Union without it was never a possibility from the EU's point of view.

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23 hours ago, Donathan said:

 

 


Of course they’re going to say that. Their argument is that there is no viable currency for an independent Scotland and thus the most viable option is to stay in the UK.

 

 

We 'aint independent yet.

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17 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

From the Guardian, the Financial Times, The Telegraph and the OECD, no less.   Seek help.

Yes, those 3 newspapers, no less, have written articles from the same OECD data without bothering to understand the data

Its quite clear that you haven't actually read the articles never mind, read the OECD data

And even if you did, its quite clear you wouldn't be able to understand it :1eye 

 

 

 

Edited by Jeremiah Cole
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