When will indyref2 happen?

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Before Malky jumps in with his ludicrous blend of the out of date and pure fiction, can I say this is tremendous news. I like this bit - looks more certain than a gamble:
The company recently made 6.5 million euros available for the construction of a new cold store, and the harbor quay was extended by 100 meters, according to the broadcaster.
 

There was a passenger and freight service from Rosyth to Zeebrugge between 2002 and 2010.

DFDS were running a freight service ill last year when they gave up after a fire on one of their ships.

[Baxter Parp]

A fascinating coincidence.

[strichener]

22 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Is this you admitting that the Edinburgh trams were not in fact a government vanity project, but an Edinburgh council one ?

Or are you just being contrarian for the sake of it ?

No and no.

[lichtgilphead]

 

[Malky3]

2 hours ago, tirso said:

People on both sides are over egging their points to suit their argument.  Do you concede you might be too?  I mean you were talking about the SNP putting forward sterlingisation earlier so Scotland couldn't carry deficit.  Do you think that would ever be put forward if that was the case?

I don't think you should get abuse for asking legitimate questions or even daft ones!  I think some of your points are well made.  I think some ridiculous about us not being able to carry a deficit like other countries and questioning whether we'd actually get in the EU when countries with real corruption are already there.  Fair fs though, am not at your throat over it.  But it's undeniable surely that this issue isn't going away and young people are more entrenched and getting older.  As I say, this is post2014 Scotland.  No voters want it to go away but, frankly, it's not going to happen and that's not just about the SNP or anyone of P&B.  It's the population.  Maybe after another defeat it will; who knows.

But do you really believe there are people falling out over this?  I have honestly never heard the word Yoon mentioned by another soul outside of social media.  If they are I think most people would think they need to get a life.  We are an extremely normal country getting on with our lives.  We're not in a civil war for goodness sake.  It was actually unbelievable how little bad behavior there was considering this is about nationhood.

The referendum in Scotland was generally good for the country's profile worldwide.  I don't believe there's been any evidence it was economically damaging in itself but willing to be persuaded. 

Sorry to come back to Alistair Jack but I see his sort of attitude today as more damaging to Scotland in the long run than asking a question the people increasingly will want asked.  As I said before, I agree the 13bn should be discussed openly by the SNP.  I also suspect that there's problems getting information from a partisan source.  Yes, I concede the SNP used the figures when it suited them.  A mistake?  Maybe.  It would be good to have a proper discussion about how good the figures are.

They already are responsible for Education etc.  The people can hold them to account.  I'm not finding it too clever either and might vote against them next time.  

I wasn't over egging the argument on Sterlingisation. If you check back you'll see I quoted and provided links to an article on the subject that I found on the tax research website. The article was written by an author I had never heard of but the explanation of why Sterlingisation would damage an Independent Scotland was clear, concise and well worded so that even the simplest of laymen - like me - could understand it. At first a few of the Nationalists on here rubbished it saying he was just another English expert with an anti Scotland agenda. Then that opinion was corrected by a few others who pointed out that the author was actually pro Scottish Independence and that he shouldn't be written off or ignored. It was that author who said that Sterlingisation would make borrowing money internationally or running a deficit extremely difficult if not impossible - not me.

Whatever your opinion is of Independence or Brexit the one thing that most experts appear to agree on is that investors don't like political uncertainty and instability. I have always been of the opinion that the experts were right and that Brexit has damaged the UK economy and that it's happened over a number of years where the uncertainty has hindered investment. Now in a similar vein Scottish growth has, for the most part over the same period, been even weaker than the rest of the UK's performance. For me the reason for that is the added political instability and uncertainty of the Independence Referendum of 2014 and the continued agitation for Indy Ref 2. Whilst we continue to destabilise our country global investors will go elsewhere. 

And yes, my personal experience is that people are falling out over it. I still have a number of friends who are nationalists - some of whom I can talk about politics too and have a friendly good humoured exchange of views with, and others that I know I can't. But there are two family members who vowed never to speak to me again after they found out that I had voted No in the 2014 referendum and I haven't seen or heard from them since. I've heard similar anecdotal evidence from others around my age. Politics could always been quite divisive but the hatred element has certainly ramped up in recent years in Scotland IMO. 

[beefybake]

3 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Ah, I see some people still think McSpreader is arguing in good faith here.

Person is a shameless liar.   Pointless engaging with in any way.   

[sureiknow]

4 hours ago, BawWatchin said:

Scotland generated  £62.7bn in tax revenue over the last financial year.

 

More Tax needed.

Socialists love to tax.

This is what is facing an Independent Scotland.

( won't happen of course, indie bit ).

[Malky3]

3 hours ago, harry94 said:

It's not so much ruling them as 'rubbish', it's providing adequate context.

Let's be quite frank about devolution, a lot of it is smoke and mirrors, it's laughable going to First Minister and asking them about their record on the economy, regardless of who they are; you may as well be speaking to fucking geese. Economic activity in Scotland isn't really defined by what happens at Holyrood - even just going through the GERS figures, you see that when you look at the onshore metrics, they all pretty much grow/shrink at the same rate as the rest of the UK. Don't get me wrong, it's a great thing and I do think Holyrood makes a difference but the idea that there's really the power there to meaningfully change the Scottish economy dramatically and potentially unlock the funding we need to fix our societal problems is just delusional. People always point to the level of spending at Holyrood increasing but that's mostly because public services are lumped in.

When you look at the UK as a whole and see the sorts of problems faced, it's not a unique issue to Scotland and it's not something which we don't see elsewhere but it's very blatantly the result of a failed economic strategy going back decades where we reacted to stagnation and productivity problems by just throwing whatever we could to the private sector for a quick gain. Yes, it fixed the productivity in some areas and gave the treasury a boost but it was akin to selling your pension off at 50 for a lump sum because you are skint and you're a bit of a drunken arsehole who can't handle money.

It is a point which I cringe about and comes across as howling at the moon but the whole political ideology in the UK is utterly fucked. Blair was a great opportunity of someone really powerful who could actually change things and his approach to the economy was to double down on the same strategy but apply some cosmetic changes by initially finding a bit of extra money through the PFI thing. The treasury then, in 2010, embarked on a project which caused societal damage which will have embodied costs down the line and years later, the IMF and economic community are saying it was not a prudent strategy and left the treasury £100bn poorer.

Then, the swing voters of the UK finally have enough and recognise that they are being deceived, how do they look to remidy this? Their papers somehow convince them that the most extreme right wing ideologies are 'anti-establishment' and confuse them into Brexit, something that will see us even poorer and more isolated.

I mean, I get it, the GERS figures have to be our starting point and there needs to be much better work done in delving into the more grey areas and articulating areas for sustainable growth in the White Paper with Brexit as a very good lesson but the idea that it's unlikely that an alternative political direction would have a real impact on growth is simply retarded. What's even worse is that an adult living in Scotland would somehow point to Westminster and assess that they are more capable of handling these matters because a few thick councillors once made an arse of a tram project.

I don't think Hollyrood has the power to dramatically change the Scottish economy, and to be perfectly honest I'm quite glad about that. I'd dread to think of the mess they would have made of it had they had the power to do so. 

But where I'd pick you up on that sentence I've highlighted is to again reference the White Paper the SNP produced prior to the 2014 referendum. That was their opportunity to outline what dramatic changes they would have made to fix "societal problems" and instead of outlining ways to fix all the mistakes the SNP had lambasted Westminster for all of my lifetime they instead pledged to give an Independent Scotland everything it had now, and a small tax cut all funded by incredibly high tax revenues generated by record prices for North Sea Oil. At the risk of going round in a loop those revenues never transpired, instead the oil price crashed, and funding everything we had now would have left a £29.9Bn fiscal black hole in the projections the SNP laid out in that White Paper. 

As I've said all along my principle concern is my lifestyle and my families lifestyle. Others call it "I'm alright Jack" and I'm not ashamed of that. For me to vote for the kind of change that would lead to Scotland being Independent it would have to be proven to me to a point where I would strongly believe it, that change would be beneficial and to be completely clear, despite the mess at Westminster right now I am a very, very long way away from being convinced by any of the nationalist arguments being put forward to date. 

 

[Malky3]

48 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

A fascinating coincidence.

So it is. It was also a fascinating coincidence that the North Sea Oil prices (Scotlands biggest export) crashed immediately after the 2014 referendum and have never recovered to 2014 levels so perhaps there is at least some truth in the figures? 

On the plus side because we are in a political union with the rest of the UK these figures - whether you believe them or not - really don't matter in reality. Scotland can continue to spend more than it makes because thankfully the UK economy is diverse enough to deal with the fluctuations in the oil price. 

[DublinMagyar]

So it is. It was also a fascinating coincidence that the North Sea Oil prices (Scotlands biggest export) crashed immediately after the 2014 referendum and have never recovered to 2014 levels so perhaps there is at least some truth in the figures? 
On the plus side because we are in a political union with the rest of the UK these figures - whether you believe them or not - really don't matter in reality. Scotland can continue to spend more than it makes because thankfully the UK economy is diverse enough to deal with the fluctuations in the oil price. 

Scotland spends less than half of what it makes.

[DublinMagyar]

Oh ffs, I engaged

Apologies

[lichtgilphead]

The troll tells us that he thinks that the graph above is explained by the drop in oil prices.

Here's a different version of the graph, which gives figures including oil and excluding oil. They look remarkably similar, especially over the period he specifically refers to..

Funny that.

Edited August 21, 2019 by lichtgilphead

[Wee-Bey]

I will always find boomers being disowned by their family for being selfish c***s incredibly funny.

[Malky3]

All these scathing denials of the GERs figures and yet Derek MacKay says it's an accurate assessment of Scotlands fiscal position in the last year. Nicola Sturgeon put her tin hat on and ran away. 

To be honest my favourite is The National. No matter how shite the picture is you can count on them to spin it. "Scotlands public spending deficit is down by more than £1Bn" it proudly declares in it's headline. Then in the article is quotes the Tories as claiming this meant the Scottish economy this year showed a fiscal black hole of £12.6Bn - great news apparently cause that was lower than the £13.8Bn deficit that was initially forecast. 

Isn't it a fascinating co-incidence that those who know the figures aren't denying the accuracy of them, whilst know nothing Nat's on a football forum are decrying the figures as nonsense! 

Edited August 21, 2019 by Malky3

[Malky3]

25 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

I will always find boomers being disowned by their family for being selfish c***s incredibly funny.

Aw, I'd have been upset about that, then I remembered you're a Hibs fan and your Sister is probably your Mother. 

[dee_62]

To be fair, that’s the headline the often rubbished BBC online news site have gone with.
“Further improvement in Scotland's public finances”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49413345

[DeeTillEhDeh]

[Wee-Bey]

41 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Aw, I'd have been upset about that, then I remembered you're a Hibs fan and your Sister is probably your Mother. 

It clearly touched a nerve as you gave it a red dot. 

And your family not talking to you because you're a No voting, Tory fantasist will never not be funny.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

All that GERS shows is that London syphons off money from the rest of the country.

How does it do that? Try this list:

Most interest is paid to London
Most profits are recorded in London
Most leasing is recorded in London
Credit card fees and bank charges are recorded in London
So too will insurance

That means there is a lot of income from elsewhere attributed (wrongly) to London

[Cerberus]

This Malky character needs banned and some vag.