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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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Wait.  It's being openly discussed at branch level, June 28th is the provisional date, sturgeon has as rock solid a democratic mandate as it's possible to have, there will be a referendum very soon there is no question,  she said so herself three days ago, 'highly likely' was the phrase she used, I don't know how much clearer people want her to be.

 

 

Perhaps you're in denial. 

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10 hours ago, Alan Stubbs said:

Unionists are kidding themselves if they think any Yes voters are changing their minds but I do think Scotland's financial situation has to be roughly on par with the UK's to get this through. Objectively speaking, different parts of the argument from back then have been won and lost on each side.

The SNP's economic argument from 2014 will work against them (constitutionally, they're fine electorally) as long as Scotland's finances lag behind the UK's. You could fairly argue about the relative strength of both economies for most of the build up to 2014, hence why things like GERS figures were barely reported. Now things are clearly more challenging. Oil is just a bonus, £x better off per person, xth richest country on earth etc. These are statements that will sting the Yes side if the campaign started tomorrow.

The opposite can be said of much of the ideological arguments. More in common with North of England, no political difference between England and Scotland, Labour will be back in soon, there won't even be an EU Referendum, only way to stay in Europe is to vote No, the Vow. These are Yes's told you so's.

The debates of the first Referendum really ended up boiling down to 'can' Scotland be an Independent country, rather than 'should'. To the people who can swing it next time, the No side is winning the 'can' argument and Yes is winning the 'should'.

It's a really big challenge in the circumstances and I'm not holding my breath over it - but the SNP's target must be to use it's limited powers to restore Scotland to economic parity/superiority relatve to the UK. Achieve that and it's game over.

 


Tremendous post, mate.

 

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13 hours ago, Loondave1 said:

If Scotland has no appetite for Indy2 in the current circumstances, which it hasn't its not happening. Apart from obsessed roasters on here no one even talks about it.Wee Nippy should call it now,lose it again and then we can move on.The funny thing is i reckon the roasters know in their hearts its not happening.Deep in their bones they ken really...

As has been pointed out, there is a degree of uncertainty about 'current circumstances'. Brexit hasn't officially been called yet and we still don't know what it's going to look like. At the minute it'd be an independence referendum railing against a hypothetical. Also, it cannot be seen to be Sturgeon's first recourse, as much a pantomime as it ultimately is, she needs to go through the process of examining options that maintain Scotland's place in both unions. Potential converts to Yes will bolt for the door marked No if Sturgeon just bulldozed in with another Indy poll as option A.

As for the 'appetite' argument, polling is thin on the ground: two done immeidately after showed a large swing to a Yes majority, one, later, from a different firm and methodology did not. However 4 out of 6 Indy polls previously to that had shown slender Yes leads as well. Prior to Brexit a plurality were happy to have another Indy poll 'within 5 years' and the '16 election returned a pro-indy majority to parliament.

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11 hours ago, Alan Stubbs said:

Unionists are kidding themselves if they think any Yes voters are changing their minds but I do think Scotland's financial situation has to be roughly on par with the UK's to get this through. Objectively speaking, different parts of the argument from back then have been won and lost on each side.

The SNP's economic argument from 2014 will work against them (constitutionally, they're fine electorally) as long as Scotland's finances lag behind the UK's. You could fairly argue about the relative strength of both economies for most of the build up to 2014, hence why things like GERS figures were barely reported. Now things are clearly more challenging. Oil is just a bonus, £x better off per person, xth richest country on earth etc. These are statements that will sting the Yes side if the campaign started tomorrow.

The opposite can be said of much of the ideological arguments. More in common with North of England, no political difference between England and Scotland, Labour will be back in soon, there won't even be an EU Referendum, only way to stay in Europe is to vote No, the Vow. These are Yes's told you so's.

The debates of the first Referendum really ended up boiling down to 'can' Scotland be an Independent country, rather than 'should'. To the people who can swing it next time, the No side is winning the 'can' argument and Yes is winning the 'should'.

It's a really big challenge in the circumstances and I'm not holding my breath over it - but the SNP's target must be to use it's limited powers to restore Scotland to economic parity/superiority relatve to the UK. Achieve that and it's game over.

 

Or at least show a viable route forward to doing so through the use of powers we'd have after independence. Robin mcAlpine had a good article in CommonSpace on the subject yesterday.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9154/robin-mcalpine-independence-be-taken-seriously-we-must-behave-seriously

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Wait.  It's being openly discussed at branch level, June 28th is the provisional date, sturgeon has as rock solid a democratic mandate as it's possible to have, there will be a referendum very soon there is no question,  she said so herself three days ago, 'highly likely' was the phrase she used, I don't know how much clearer people want her to be.

 

 

Perhaps you're in denial. 


Personally i think I'd be delighted for Nippy to call one in current circumstances and lose badly.However i think it's just a device to keep zoomers happy in their wee bubble of self reinforcement. Might be wrong but i think YES voters with an ounce of sanity realise this is not the time.Like i say though I'd go for it ASAP [emoji6]
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Love how you all were calling for one asap after the brexit referendum but now you're all doing the Michael Jackson moonwalk away from it. All talk. Bottle jobs.



The bigger bottle jobs are the ones that voted against their own country looking after itself. That's a different level of shitebaggery altogether.
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I'd imagine the reaction to Brexit has died down somewhat because nobody has a clue when, or even if, it's going to happen. Talk about a bottle job.

2 hours ago, renton said:

Or at least show a viable route forward to doing so through the use of powers we'd have after independence. Robin mcAlpine had a good article in CommonSpace on the subject yesterday.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9154/robin-mcalpine-independence-be-taken-seriously-we-must-behave-seriously

Indeed, although I still think even 2013 level finances would make a huge difference.

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The bigger bottle jobs are the ones that voted against their own country looking after itself. That's a different level of shitebaggery altogether.

Your playground im a better Scotsman than everyone else patter is a great boost to NO voters keep it up.Even the SNP realise your approach to debate is an embarrassment and only tolerate it to keep zoomers thinking they are contributing to Independence.Actually quite the reverse.
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Your playground im a better Scotsman than everyone else patter is a great boost to NO voters keep it up.Even the SNP realise your approach to debate is an embarrassment and only tolerate it to keep zoomers thinking they are contributing to Independence.Actually quite the reverse.


I think you'll find that it was your fellow unionist that started calling people bottlers. I would never try and convince you of anything to do with independence as you would oppose it at all costs. I doubt the SNP will be trying to win over unionists such as yourself either.
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12 minutes ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

If you say you will do something and don't do it because you lack courage then you're a bottle job.
The majority of scots said in every poll they'd vote "no" and that's what they did. How anyone can class that as bottling it or shitebag material I don't know....

However, you lot all clearly stated that if rUK voted to leave the EU and Scotland wanted to stay and was poised to be taken out "against our will" then there would be a second referendum. However there won't be- because you lack the courage because you know it will be lost. You've bottled it. .

Tick tock, motherfucker.

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If you say you will do something and don't do it because you lack courage then you're a bottle job.
The majority of scots said in every poll they'd vote "no" and that's what they did. How anyone can class that as bottling it or shitebag material I don't know....

However, you lot all clearly stated that if rUK voted to leave the EU and Scotland wanted to stay and was poised to be taken out "against our will" then there would be a second referendum. However there won't be- because you lack the courage because you know it will be lost. You've bottled it. .



In order for me or anyone else on this forum to bottle it we would have to have the power to call another referendum. We don't and as always you're havering shite.
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If she calls it and May rejects it then she can play up to the "They won't let us make our own decisions line". It wouldn't surprise me if this is what she's hoping for, even the SNP must realise that although BREXIT is a massive change in circumstances, its too soon to the previous referendum. 

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There are more than a few party members on here whose membership contributions keep the SNP afloat. If they'd bottle they'd be putting all the pressure they could on for a second referendum.

I said a day or two after brexit, on here, that sturgeon would be like a man being held back from a fight by his missus. Had to act like she wants a fight but doesn't really and is dying to be prevented in order to save face. I was told I was havering...


That was a long post of nothingness. You were taking shite today, as you do most days.
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